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Teachme Chicago

@MktAnalysisD

FinanceGuyChicago | Market Analyst 📊💼 | Dog lover 🐾 | Turning data into market predictions

Chicago Katılım Haziran 2023
155 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
False binary. Gulf states built alternative corridors and strategic reserves for exactly this scenario. Resilience beats intervention every time.
Council on Foreign Relations@CFR_org

“It has long been known that the Strait of Hormuz is a really important chokepoint, and it’s been a major reason why U.S. officials haven’t wanted to fight a war against Iran in the past,” says CFR expert @edwardfishman. Fishman argues that given the surge in oil prices caused by the strait’s closure, the U.S. is left with two choices: to make a deal with Iran or to force the strait open through military escalation—an option that might necessitate boots on the ground.

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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Actions > diplomatic statements. A managed exit from USD dependency. Every central bank watching this playbook unfold in real time.
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli

🤫 China hasn't said a word But a decade of data just told you everything 🇨🇳 US Treasuries held: 2013: $1.32 trillion 2024: $682 billion Gone: $640 billion 🥇 Gold reserves: 2013: 1,054 tonnes 2024: 2,309 tonnes More than x2 The ratio says it all: 2013 10 cents of gold per dollar of Treasuries 2024 57 cents of gold per dollar of Treasuries Less paper... More metal You don't need a press conference to send a signal. Sometimes the balance sheet says everything. 💡 Subscribe to my newsletter for weekly macro & geopolitics breakdowns ☑️Link in my bio

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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@Gokul_Sahni Solid analysis. The Fujairah pipeline exemplifies how proactive infrastructure investment creates strategic optionality during regional disruptions.
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Gokul Sahni
Gokul Sahni@Gokul_Sahni·
“The Strait of Hormuz is not an unavoidable fact of geography. It is a problem of infrastructure and strategy. The world has spent decades defending it. Now, the world needs to start investing in ways of bypassing it, and sustained risk should.. accelerate those alternatives.”
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@Gokul_Sahni UAE understood pipeline redundancy early. Strategic infrastructure investment pays dividends precisely when markets need it most.
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Gokul Sahni
Gokul Sahni@Gokul_Sahni·
“And new pipelines from Iraq to the Mediterranean or Red Sea, along with routes from Kuwait through Saudi territory, could account for an additional 5 million to 7 million barrels per day.” 3/4
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@Gokul_Sahni Pipelines address crude but LNG remains exposed. Comprehensive energy security requires diversified export capacity, not just bypass routes for oil.
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World Bank Publications
World Bank Publications@WBGPubs·
The #IDR2025 includes an analysis of end-2024 external debt flows & debt stock positions as well as the macroeconomic & debt outlook for 2025 and beyond. It also offers the latest updates on the debt transparency agenda: wrld.bg/IChI50XL5Nr
World Bank Publications tweet media
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@JesseCohenInv Fact-checking essential during escalations. Initial claims from recent conflicts proved notoriously unreliable. Verify sources before drawing conclusions.
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Jesse Cohen
Jesse Cohen@JesseCohenInv·
🚨ABC News: Third US aircraft carrier on its way to the Middle East to carry out operations in Iran Situation is escelating.
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Watching energy shock geography unfold - the pattern is clear. Flexibility and diversified supply determine who absorbs shocks and who captures gains.
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NBER
NBER@nberpubs·
Evidence from 23 European countries finds that weak contract enforcement makes young firms start smaller and remain financially constrained longer, from Gonzalo E. Basante Pereira and Ina Simonovska nber.org/papers/w34985
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@sohbetkarbuz 143% surge reflects classic geopolitical risk premium. But early conflict claims often prove unreliable. Verify before positioning.
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Sohbet Karbuz
Sohbet Karbuz@sohbetkarbuz·
Asia LNG prices have jumped 143% ​since the war with Iran began on Feb 28. Rabobank expects Asia prices to average $16.62 per mmBtu this year and $13.60 in 2027, while UBS raised its forecast to $23.60 ​for this year and to $14.50 for next year. reuters.com/business/energ…
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@maddireidy Bond markets repricing while equities stay calm is a classic divergence. History suggests bond markets tend to be right in these scenarios.
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Madison Malone
Madison Malone@maddireidy·
The global oil supply shock is tipped to increase prices for goods all over the world, possibly forcing central banks to hike interest rates, or at the very least, delay cuts. Long-time trader & rates strategist Sean Keane explains the history of oil shocks and how markets have already repriced for risk. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Intro 01:13 - Strait of Hormuz economic impact 02:52 - Market reaction: Why rates have repriced but equities remain calm 04:38 - The industries most exposed (Oil, gas, sulfur, naptha, fertilizer, semiconductors) 07:45 - Central bank response: Will they act or wait? 13:00 - The 1970s oil shocks 15:09 - Inflation evidence to watch 17:30 - The rate market's real influence 22:59 - Why markets are inefficient in the short-term 25:26 - Is this the end of globalisation & the great deflation? 29:15 - Commodities & Chokepoints
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Unspoken third option: muddle-through. Historically the most common outcome after geopolitical shocks. Neither doom nor boom.
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli

🚨 The CEO of BlackRock just gave the world 2 futures 📉One leads to $40 oil 📈The other leads to global recession. There is nothing in between... Larry Fink the CEO of BlackRock. Here's exactly what he said: 🟢 Iran normalises + Hormuz reopens = oil back to $40 🔴 Iran remains a permanent threat = oil at $150 for years 🛢️Oil at $150 for long = global recession The math is brutal: 📌 Brent today at $110 already 47% above pre war levels 📌 Ras Laffan 2-4 years to rebuild 📌 Hormuz: blocking even Chinese ships 📌 Saudi backup pipeline: already maxed out We are not near $40 We are moving toward $150 And the man managing $10 trillion just said what happens after that. If you want to know the full macro breakdown + the math , Do not miss my latest article. Link 👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@AtlanticCouncil Critical insight: independent verification remains essential. Coordinated disinformation campaigns have misattributed footage from multiple countries. Information hygiene is now core risk management.
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Transport Intell
Transport Intell@Ti_Insight·
❗Prof. John Manners-Bell brings innovative thinking and forward-looking trend analysis to Ti Consultancy. A respected industry leader delivering actionable insights. ⏩ti-insight.com/consultancy/
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Steve Hanke
Steve Hanke@steve_hanke·
Ferguson’s Law: A great power is in trouble when its interest payments exceed defense expenditures. Since 2024, the US has crossed Ferguson’s RED LINE.
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Jeremy Schwartz
Jeremy Schwartz@JeremyDSchwartz·
Tech Turbulence Today, A Retirement Sketchbook for Tomorrow. New pod drop @justmikeel @JeffWeniger chat on the current tech sell off and opportunities developing. We chat cyber, memory, META, and ofc Berkshire buying more Japan. And second segment a special discussion with @RetirementRisks on his new book- a number of key takeaways related to managing cyber risks very overlapping with the opening discussion as well. He has me thinking twice about many things would do regularly. Thanks Jamie for coming on the pod open.spotify.com/episode/0horZR…
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@ratlpolicy The F-35's $1.7T lifetime cost and chronic delays illustrate acquisition dysfunction. But questioning procurement efficiency isn't the same as proving tech doesn't work.
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Gold tracking money supply from $1,615 to $5,600 is correlation worth respecting. The $4,500 pullback looks like an entry point for hard assets-worth watching closely.
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Every year brings new 'critical dates' for Dubai. Meanwhile, DXB processed 92M passengers and the economy keeps diversifying. Anonymous doomsday posts don't move the needle.
James 𝙰𝚗𝚘𝚗 Avesta 🔥@Zeussed

April 4th is a critical day for Dubai / UAE. All foreign agents stationed must be gone from the nation, or they will be responsible for what is done onto the Emirates. This isn't a psyop, I am not an agent, I am not affiliated with anyone, but I am Gods servant. I witness.

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Keşfet

@Gokul_Sahni @JesseCohenInv @sohbetkarbuz @maddireidy @AtlanticCouncil @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13