BlackHill
119 posts
BlackHill
@Moatdelusion
Long/short. European small to mid caps. Generalist. Value and growth are two sides of the same coin. Not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.
Europe Katılım Ağustos 2021
354 Takip Edilen349 Takipçiler
@Moatdelusion PureGym 1Q results out this morning.
ARPMM at £24.91 (+14% YoY)
Members +150k YoY.
Members/gym +3.2% YoY.
Huge embedded and unrealised pricing uplift available for The Gym Group.
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Comparing unit economics of $BFIT.AS, $GYM.L and PureGym. Numbers are actuals and not management estimates.
There is latent pricing power (15-25%) for $BFIT.AS and $GYM.L to match the second cheapest provider in the country. That will bring FCF and ROIC closer to 2019 levels.
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@Moatdelusion @NotMarkLeonard Forum? Chapters says organic growth in VMS is mid single digits. Hit me in my DMs if you are skeptical...curious to get your take!
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$CHG.DE Chapters Group mentioned on the $CSU call via question about a Danaher 👀 co-founder (Mitchell Rales) backing a mini-CSU buying VMS businesses in 🇩🇪 +
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@evfcfaddict Absolutely. Furthermore, I asked David Cicurel (CEO of Judges $JDG.L) if he would buy $SDI.L. He said „maybe at 1 pence“ stating the bad underlying businesses they have bought are not worth his time or money.
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I somehow didn`t read that tweet earlier - this is clearly a red flag for me. A serial acquirer in the current situation of $SDI.L needs a leader who understands these economics. The stock is cheap but only if they manage the situation well which is a very big questionmark.
BlackHill@Moatdelusion
Talked to $SDI.L new CEO. Was not impressed. He asked what price discipline means (?), had never even heard of $LIFCO and showed willingness to issue shares for a "transformational deal." Management does not understand the basic economics of serial acquirers. Hard pass from me.
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Swedish roll-up Instalco $INSTAL.ST buys small construction installation companies in the field of HVAC and electricity for 5x EV/ LTM EBIT.
1/3 of revenues come from new construction, which gets hit with 18 months after new construction permits fall.
THIS IS HAPPENING NOW.
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Can someone explain to me why Kering is down 50% in the past year due to Gucci's weaker China sales, while Hermes trades at 50x earnings. Aren't all these luxury brands heavily dependent on China? It is hard to believe the Chinese consumer problem is only a Gucci problem...
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Trifork $TRIFOR.CO does venture capital. Their VC portfolio was not marked down. Why? Well because they value their VC investments via a) DCF and b) latest financial round.
Firstly, how can you use a DCF for VC. Secondly, many of the companies raised money before 2023.
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Anglo American $NGLOY owns De Beers, which is the world's largest diamond producer.
Diamond output down 23% in 1Q24 due to luxury spending pullback and lab-grown diamonds cannibalising demand.
Bullish for Pandora $PNDORA as it is going through lab-grown diamond inflection point
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