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A short Brexit thread, exploring the little-reported support for Brexit from the upper middle classes.
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Xavier MacDuff
23.3K posts
Xavier MacDuff
@xvrmdf
Business, finance, economics, politics. Credit & equities. Bottom-up beats top down. Optimist.
Scotland, UK, EU Katılım Mayıs 2013
1.4K Takip Edilen3.9K Takipçiler
Whenever I see Americans bragging about there salaries, I think of things like this...
where_is_hardo@where_is_hardo
This is what $16 of non-organic sprouts look like in NYC
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@lfg_uk This is why we stopped. The protesters lost this battle, but won the war against roadbuilding. The government basically stopped trying from this moment forward.
theguardian.com/artanddesign/g…
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Is this acceptable?
Since 1990, Spain has built nearly 7,000 miles of motorway.
So ... what about the UK?
We have built 422 miles of motorway in 35 years.
35 years – 422 miles. Thats only twelve miles every year.
Why have we stopped building?
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Hiking interest rates in response to a supply-shock driven jump in oil prices is absolutely the perfect recipe for a recession.
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@SkeleCap Indeed. But we don't have the COVID savings buffers/various stimulus programmes in action this time around.
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@medic_uk @CreditFac I think it's the big market move which triggers the pod liquidation (which might exaggerate the move).
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@CreditFac @xvrmdf You think a single pod blow up is causing global rates to move like this…
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Who'd have thought Kevin was a French name ?
Vintage Maps@vintagemapstore
Evolution of the most popular First Names in France along the years (1946-2011) - boys edition
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@BenGrahamUK They don't own the car parks. They're leased. And the leases have inflation-linked escalators. Automatically rising costs.
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NCP has gone into administration.
They’ve been running car parks since 1931, and somehow ended up £305m in debt.
Surely the maintenance for a car park is simple: ticket machines, barriers, lights, and occasional cleaning.
How can a business model literally based on people paying to park go bankrupt?
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@JuliusProbst @darioperkins RPI-linked uplifts are embedded into far too many (often regulated/govt-dictated) prices across the economy, so every temporary shock results in an uplift of medium-term inflation. It's totally mechanical in nature, and the BoE is powerless to stop it.
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@xvrmdf @darioperkins Yep, given past 5 years, absolutely no household or business is expecting long run inflation to be anywhere close to the 2% target. But if you abandon now, transformation into Emerging Market is complete.
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The UK has managed to combine the weakest economy with the most hawkish central bank. Bound to end well
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@JuliusProbst @darioperkins BoE is in a tough spot given how much the UK regulatory state has caused inflation and embedded its persistence into the economy.
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@darioperkins The inflation overshoot in the UK has been worse than in US/EZ countries. I think inflation targeting is dumb (NGDP is better) but absolutely not clear what they’re supposed to do after exceeding for >5 years, given current framework
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Xavier MacDuff retweetledi
BoE is going to sacrifice the UK economy on the altar of the expectations fairy
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@John_Stepek @SimonMagus @thomasforth See also @annastansbury for some excellent work on this topic.
hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/…
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@xvrmdf @SimonMagus Yeah I don't have the data to back this hunch up at all and unfortunately every time @thomasforth writes something I put it in my reading pile and forget to re-open the tab
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I think Tom is both right and wrong here. England's provincial cities struggle isn't about transport infrastructure. I accept the R&D point but it is private R&D investment that drives growth, state R&D investment has close to zero impact. The problem is that...
Tom Forth@thomasforth
I think this is now wrong. North English Cities are now just as dense as their European equivalents like Amsterdam, Hamburg, Copenhagen, etc... with extremely strong economies. There are some different patterns within that density I admit, but I don't think it matters much.
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@John_Stepek @SimonMagus A drum that I keep beating is that a good rail and metro/tram network is the biggest factor holding back the economy of northern England.
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@SimonMagus Got to be honest, from an admittedly purely anecdotal point of view, moving from various British "elsewheres" to commuter belt southeast England has convinced me that a good public transport network has absolutely massive underestimated benefits
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Xavier MacDuff retweetledi
@xvrmdf The US is among the most heavy users of domestic subsidies, often in the form of allowing monopolies to continue to operate (airlines the biggest example).
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@lucasaganronald They're probably just liking the car, and may not have even noticed the caption.
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Likes under it are for me even more shocking…
Benji Naesen@BenjiNaesen
Not the caption I would choose if you hit your wife with your car, resulting in her death. 🤷♂️
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I don't think UK free traders appreciate just how much their favourite countries (USA, Singapore, etc) have long relied upon interventionism, subsidies, and tariffs to boost their domestic industries.
Ed Conway@EdConwaySky
🚨Clearly there's loads of news today so there's a chance this gets ignored but... it is a BIG deal. Britain, the country that invented free trade as we know it, is raising steel tariffs to 50%. Biggest tariffs since Brexit. A massively symbolic moment. news.sky.com/story/watershe…
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@darioperkins There is always a refinancing wall. It's the straw man of macro credit analysis and is best ignored.
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Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
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@TomKloza Wait, that's the West Coast of the *United States* ?!?
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