Mod Ned

@RealJimChanos @JohnTinsman After Tesla did 40x since Jim’s first bear thesis he’s doing the same mistake now with SpaceX

@JohnTinsman It’s cancellable within 90 days, i.e., a spot market pricing deal.

XAI spent $3-4 billion on Colossus I They are leasing it out for $45 bil of 3 years to Anthropic!!! AM I THE ONLY ONE PAYING ATTENTION. THATS THE BEST ROI EVER!

@dampedspring On 5, you can’t know when it has popped except in hindsight when it is down substantially

Trading and investing in a bubble regime 1. Always own beta (doesnt matter much what kind) 2. With every ounce of your being do not leverage up 3. Overweight professional managed cheap trend following managers 4. Under no circumstances short the rally. 5. BUT most importantly do not buy the dip when the bubble has popped.

@eshanbuilds @BullTheoryio Anthropic is about to turn profitable in 2Q. OpenAI probably soon too

the circular revenue framing is partially right but the "fake revenue" headline is wrong. openai genuinely consumes $60B in compute to serve 400M+ users and enterprise customers generating $25B in real third-party revenue. the cloud credits fund real GPU hours producing real inference for real paying customers. the actual concern is simpler. microsoft invested $13B, got back $60B in cloud billings, and booked a markup on the equity. that's not fake revenue. it's a customer acquisition cost with a 4.6x return on cloud spend. the question is whether openai can survive without the subsidy, not whether the compute consumption is real. the compute is real. the unit economics without investor funding are the part that hasn't been proven.

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE. Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works ? A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers. Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI. When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer. The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale. This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop. Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time. This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit. In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers. This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone. This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales. Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt. The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules. This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

@CommodMkt @tomkeene All hyperscalers have their own chips with rapidly increasing share

Thanks @tomkeene. So why did Rockefeller stop vertically integrating at the gas pump and never build the car? I knew you would come back on this... Rockefeller followed one rule: never put a dollar where you're a price-taker. Only own the bottleneck where you set the price. It's the same rule the hyperscalers are breaking. He stopped integrating beyond the pump, as owning Detroit would have meant pouring capital into a competitive, capital-intensive, price-taking manufacturing business. Gasoline and cars are complements, not substitutes, and you want your complement industry fragmented and competitive. Cheap, abundant cars from Ford and GM meant more fuel sold at higher margin. The artificial muscle (AM) revolution was ultimately about oil, not the cars planes and trucks that did the heavy lifting. Decades ago, Buffet called them the worst kinds of businesses: ones that grow fast, devour capital and earn little on it. He said if he would have been at Kitty Hawk he would have shot Orville down because "Karl Marx couldn't have done as much damage to capitalists as Orville did." This is exactly the charge now being levelled at the hyperscalers: rapid growth, insatiable demand for capital, and returns that don't clear the cost of it. But the key here is that Rockefeller wanted the cheap abundant trains, planes and automobiles as he controlled the choke point. The ability to turn crude into gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels. Similarly, the AI revolution will likely be about atoms, not bits, as that’s where the choke point ultimately is. Chips, turbines, transformers – hence critical minerals. In the new AI race the actual chokepoint has moved off bits entirely, onto atoms: silicon, where Nvidia sets the price, and the commodity complex underneath it: copper, steel, gas, uranium, the metals and molecules. With the exception Google’s TPU, they own very little of this. Think of Google with its TPU as the Gulf Oil/Mellons that became Chevron. So who is the Standard Oil of the AI story: Its Nvidia. Both with c.85% market share. I am sure Jensen keeps a copy of Dan Yergin's The Prize for nighttime reading as he has played it to the tee. But unlike Standard Oil, Nvidia doesn’t control its crude supply. It has TSMC and ASML to contend with. So what does the AM revolution tell you about what could happen to Nvidia, TSMC and ASML in the AI revolution?

@themarketradar Inflation swaps is smarter money than bonds which are smarter money than equities Swaps > bonds > equities Look for example at bond yields relative to equities

@themarketradar Unless they are down due to expected recession

Inflation swaps have been materially moving lower the last few weeks This is exactly what risk assets need right now

@axios You have blood on your hands Axios helping with lies to provoke another war pieces of corrupt sh*t

EXCLUSIVE: Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack U.S assets, according to classified intelligence shared with Axios. The intelligence could become a pretext for U.S. military action. axios.com/2026/05/17/us-…

@netanyahu Go to hell parasite

Today I instructed my legal advisers to consider the harshest legal action against The New York Times and Nicholas Kristof. They defamed the soldiers of Israel and perpetuated a blood libel about rape, trying to create a false symmetry between the genocidal terrorists of Hamas and Israel’s valiant soldiers. Under my leadership, Israel will not be silent. We will fight these lies in the court of public opinion and in the court of law. Truth will prevail.

@MerlijnTrader Source?

SUPER BULLISH: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump and Xi are considering a $1 trillion deal. China invests $1,000,000,000,000 to build factories in America. Leaders meet May 14-15. 100% tariffs threatened on Chinese oil buyers. China dumped U.S. Treasuries. China armed Iran. Now: $1 trillion investment deal being considered. The most hostile trade relationship in decades. Potentially becoming the biggest investment deal in history.

@MacroEdgeRes Source?

The Trump–Xi meeting in Beijing is now expected to be a limited, low-impact summit focused on maintaining stability rather than major deals #MacroEdge

@GoingBallistic5 Why match human speed? If they work at 0.7x the speed but cost half and work 2x more hours that’s a good ROI

Humanoids will have limited utility until they match human speed The clear leader in robotics should be able to show an 8-hour shift of autonomous labor, no human intervention Wen?

@KobeissiLetter @grok what happens if thise cables are cut? Are there alternative cables? Internet stops? For which countries? Etc

BREAKING: Iran has moved to take full control of all 7 undersea internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

@orrdavid 100% @RealJimChanos lives on management fees, not carry. He would be broke 100 times if he was investing his money

I saw Burry's fund results and they were bad. But they were not very volatile. Burry publicly says he is shorting AI stocks using options. When the trade moves against him he says he is adding even more to his short. Based on his fund's results, he might be risking some tiny token bet. Say 1% or less on the combined trade. But I get the feeling that a lot of people following him don't understand that his public posture and strong wording doesn't match any real conviction. And they bet a lot bigger than him following him into his (terrible) trades, and blow up. It's pretty crappy that a movie made a charlatan like this famous. More people should realize the guy is an incompetent investor, but never will. My solution to this problem: The government should force all registered firms to report their results publicly and forever. A permanent record. That kind of tansparency would be extremely telling. For another example, nobody would have "learned' from a guy like Chanos, either, if they knew how bad he was.

@Currentreport1 So it spreads accross parasites. Interesting

BREAKING: Israel confirms first human case of Hantavirus.

@grok @ShadowofEzra @grok How many covid cases were there on 5 jan 2020

@ShadowofEzra @grok did they assess the public risk as low also at the beginning of covid?

@zeromediafeed Looks like 20x on the chart

@OkadikeOnyeisi @Eng_china5 Are you AI?

@Eng_china5 A tense signal when Russia urges evacuations from Kyiv, it usually points to rising risk and something potentially serious ahead

NOW AND UNUSUAL RUSSIA is running out of patience... Russia calls on foreign countries to evacuate their diplomatic staff from Kyiv as soon as possible.

@Barchart The regular PE makes much more sense than Shiller for today’s case

Stock Market closing in on its highest Shiller PE Ratio in history, now only slightly less than during the Dot Com Bubble 🚨🚨🚨

@simon_ree Do you?

European equities are ripping, Naz futs ripping, gold and silver ripping, bond futs ripping, Brent & WTI futs are getting smoked...market really believes it this time