MoltenDeth

@OddStats Maybe one day we'll get 4HTE and only ever see line go up 🙏

I'M INCREDIBLY STUPID, CAN'T READ, AND AM CONFUSED. HOLD ME. Sure, so...both tables show the exact same criteria. These are the forward returns and 5 day max draw downs after VIX goes from the 14s one day to the 17s the next (at any point during the day). Also, SPX must have been within 1% of all time high close on the day VIX was in the 14s, but is now more than 1% away from a new high. Fucking incredibly, once we went to everyday 0DTEs, the entire outlook flipped entirely. The table before 0DTEs was a sea of fucking red, with negative forward returns and median draw downs for the next week over 2%. But once 0DTEs kicked in? Baby, everything changed. Now the forward returns are a virtual sea of *green* and the draw downs over the next week were manageable instead of possibly terrifying. There's not even really an edge here, I just posted this because it's the single most stark difference I've seen yet between options eras. It's hard to argue things didn't change tremendously.

What a difference an era makes. Both tables below show the same things changing within a day: ▪ VIX goes from the 14s to the 17s ▪ SPX goes from within 1% of a new ATH close to more-than-1% away So what's the difference? Top table is just the 0DTE era. Bottom is before.

@OddStats What if the market month is red but the futures month is green? 45 minutes to go...

45 minutes to go. Who else just looked over at the trading app and thought, "we just need ONE tweet."

Unless SPX somehow closes above 7580.06 today, we'll have a negative June. June's direction has matched the direction of the entire calendar year for 9 of the past 10 years. Only 2018 saw them go in different directions; positive June/negative year.