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‼️ This is important.
Russia is moving toward the militarization of maritime trade.
In recent weeks, Putin’s aide Nikolai Patrushev has been consistently advancing the same logic: Moscow is using the risk of detentions and blockades as a pretext to bring the navy into play, legitimize convoys, armed escorts, and tighter control over vessels.
‼️ This effectively pulls commercial shipping into the sphere of force and imposes the practice of military cover for trade routes.
In recent months, European countries have more frequently stopped sanctioned vessels for inspection. The UK has already authorized its military to board and detain such ships in its waters, while France seized the tanker Deyna in the western Mediterranean.
Russia is using this as justification to expand its military presence around commercial shipping and promote a model of armed escort.
‼️ If Russian mobile fire groups or naval vessels escort ships in a way that threatens a coastal state, interferes with its lawful control in territorial waters, facilitates sanctions evasion, or if a commercial vessel is effectively used for military purposes, this would constitute a violation of UNCLOS by Russia.
This is a deliberate blurring of the line between civilian shipping and military force - and a push toward escalation.
Where clashes are most likely:
1. The Great Belt (Denmark) - one of the main Baltic chokepoints.
2. Øresund - a narrow strait between two NATO states (Denmark/Sweden).
3. Skagerrak and Kattegat (Denmark) - the most dangerous transit zone between the Baltic and the North Sea. In 2025, 292 sanctioned tankers passed through here.
4. UK waters on the approaches to the English Channel and the Dover Strait - currently the most likely flashpoint, given new political authorization for boarding and detention.
5. The western Mediterranean - a confirmed zone of enforcement actions.
France’s seizure of Deyna shows that the risk extends beyond the Baltic straits. The vessel was sailing from Murmansk under a Mozambican flag and was intercepted over suspected links to the shadow fleet and irregularities with its flag and documentation.
The most likely confrontation will not resemble a large naval battle, but rather a series of "dirty" incidents: an attempt to stop a tanker, a Russian claim of "protection," an armed escort or naval vessel nearby, dangerous maneuvering, electronic warfare, warning shots - followed by accusations of "piracy" and a new round of pressure. If inspections become systematic, Russia will shift high-risk voyages into a "vessel plus escort" format and deliberately turn each inspection into a political and security crisis.
Russia is bringing the war to the sea and covering commercial shipping with military force. It is deliberately erasing the line between civilian vessels and military instruments so that any lawful inspection appears as an attack on a "protected" shipment.
This is not the protection of shipping, but the militarization of trade: Russia is turning the sea into yet another grey zone of coercion, where law is expected to yield to the threat of force.
Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
Russia sent a warship to escort sanctioned tankers through the English Channel despite PM Starmer’s threat to seize shadow-fleet ships passing through British waters. On Wednesday, the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich - a 3,620-ton warship armed with anti-ship, cruise, and surface-to-air missiles - accompanied two sanctioned oil tankers - Universal and Enigma - as they passed along the south coast of England. A British naval vessel followed behind. Source: The Telegraph
English
