@FarsNews_Agency Since the United States control the Iranian economy. Trump holds all cards.
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The Morty
18.4K posts
The Morty
@MortyIsReal
Worked Hard, Played Hard, Traveled and wound up in Florida. Salt Life is Paramount
Flagler Beach, FL Katılım Kasım 2022
194 Takip Edilen2.5K Takipçiler
🎥 خوشچشم، تحلیلگر مسائل راهبردی: تا پول بلوکهشدهٔ ایران آزاد نشود، هیچ تفاهم اولیهای با آمریکا در کار نخواهد بود.
خبرگزاری فارس@FarsNews_Agency
🎥 ۴ شرط ایران برای اعتمادسازی از سوی آمریکا چیست؟
فارسی
🔹لن يتم التوصل إلى اتفاق بين إيران والولايات المتحدة من دون أن يشمل لبنان
🔹إيران لن تسمح للاحتلال الإسرائيلي بأن يكون لديه حرية شن هجمات واغتيالات في لبنان
الخبير في الشؤون الاستراتيجية محمد مرندي لـ #الميادين
@s_m_marandi
العربية
Iranian women, men train with kalashnikovs at nightly rallies as defiance enters 80th night
Gisoo Misha Ahmadi reports from Tehran.
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The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy announced on Sunday that 33 vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours after obtaining authorization.
tasnimnews.ir/3599484
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This is not politics as usual.
We’ve never had an openly authoritarian leader in office. Nor have we had a party totally subservient to their leader.
We must resist as such during these not normal times.
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@grahamformaine @BernieSanders The cock and the bern, using the porta potty together.
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We will not just fight the oligarchy, we will defeat the oligarchy.
Together.
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@EricLDaugh This crap needs to end. The Democraps can never be trusted again.
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🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: Rep. Brandon Gill is launching an all-out investigation into RAMPANT Medicaid fraud in Ohio, home to the second-largest Somali hotbed in the United States
Gill says it's in the BILLIONS.
DOZENS of companies found in single buildings, billing taxpayers for FAKE services tens of millions!
GILL: "Hundreds of millions of dollars of your tax money is being wasted in an Ohio Medicaid scheme that we're uncovering on the House Oversight Committee."
"We believe this scheme stretches into the billions of dollars. The Ohio Medicaid agency had years to figure this out."
"A reporter did it in just a couple months and we're building on their work. We're saving you taxpayer dollars and we're ending fraud on my task force of the House Oversight Committee." 🔥
EXPOSE IT ALL! Hand it over to JD Vance's fraud task force!
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UPDATE—CBS reports Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is hiding in a secret location, communicating only through a network of messengers to avoid assassination by Israel.
US intelligence says even senior Iranian officials cannot contact him directly, causing major delays in US-Iran negotiations. Officials described the regime’s underground communications as chaotic and “almost like watching a sitcom.”
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Help me with this one: how does anyone know if the Iran deal (that we are hearing is nearing) is good or bad if the terms have not been made public?
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@abdulslam2017 Germany is the Palestinian State. Haven't you heard, they've been rounding up the locals and forcing Islamic Jihad.
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Saudi Arabia will not join the ‘Abraham Accords’ unless there is a binding plan to establish a Palestinian state. Given that the current Israeli government is occupying territory in Syria and Lebanon and bombing other countries, I do not believe this is a realistic prospect. Netanyahu does not want peace.
As a reminder: the Kingdom 🇸🇦 launched the ‘Lasting Peace’ initiative for a two-state solution and the right of the Palestinians 🇵🇸 to an independent state. This is a consistent position that has not changed.
As for the war on Iran: from the outset, the Kingdom has called for dialogue and warned against threatening the region’s stability under the pretext of war. And after it broke out, it stated clearly on more than one occasion: this is not our war. It will respond to militia attacks at the appropriate time and in a manner that protects its national security.
And since the Kingdom’s warnings regarding the war on Iran were ignored, those who made the decision to go to war must bear the consequences of their failure, not shift the blame onto the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
There needs to be an end to the false expectations surrounding Israeli-Saudi normalization. Let’s start with the semantic issue. Anyone familiar with the relationship between Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and the broader regional order understands that if normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia ever happens, it will not be branded as an extension of the “Abraham Accords.” From the Saudi perspective, that is not a cosmetic or semantic matter. Riyadh will insist on its own framework, its own terms, and its own political narrative. But that is the smaller issue. To understand just how detached current normalization talk is from regional realities, it is worth reading the recent arguments made by Prince Turki al-Faisal and other influential Saudi voices. In essence, the prevailing Saudi view today is that Israel has become a major source of regional instability, in some respects viewed as even more destabilizing than Iran. At the same time, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who sees himself as a central leader of the Arab world, is unlikely to move toward normalization without significant and visible progress on the Palestinian issue. The reality is that renewed Saudi-Iranian accommodation is far more likely in the near term than Saudi-Israeli normalization. That may be uncomfortable for many in Washington and Jerusalem to acknowledge, but it reflects the region as it actually exists, not as some policymakers wish it to be. Saudi Arabia will not agree to normalization in exchange for cooperation on Iran alone while the Palestinian issue remains unresolved. Contrary to the hopes of some in Israel and the United States, there was never a realistic path toward bypassing the Palestinian question on the road to broader regional normalization. This is also why comprehensive peace agreements between Israel and countries like Lebanon or Syria remain highly unlikely under current conditions. Much of the regional diplomatic architecture ultimately runs through Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia is not prepared to legitimize a regional order that sidelines Palestinian aspirations. From the Saudi perspective, Israel cannot indefinitely hold both ends of the stick, deepening control over the West Bank while simultaneously expecting the political and economic benefits of normalization with the Arab world. The sooner policymakers internalize that reality, the more grounded and effective regional diplomacy can become. And this is true not only under Israel’s current government, but very likely under future governments as well. That is precisely why it is irresponsible to continue selling illusions to the Israeli public on this issue. There is no serious regional pathway to normalization with Saudi Arabia that completely bypasses the Palestinian question. Repeating that promise over and over may serve short-term political narratives, but it does not change the strategic reality in the Middle East. At some point, Israeli policymakers and the public alike will have to confront a basic fact: normalization with the Arab world, especially with Saudi Arabia, will almost certainly require meaningful movement on the Palestinian track. Not symbolic gestures, but substantive political steps. Pretending otherwise may be politically convenient, but it only deepens the gap between expectations inside Israel and the diplomatic realities shaping the region. #IranWar #Iran
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مجددا هشدار میدهیم هرگونه سیگنال تهران دال بر انتقال ذخایر اورانیوم یا رقیق سازی دفعی آن خصوصا به زیر حد ۲۰ درصد، و همچنین تعلیق چند ساله فرایند غنی سازی بشکلی زنجیره صنعت هسته ای را بیش از این دچار اختلال سازد، و هر اقدامی که زمان Breakout را به میزان قابل توجهی افزایش دهد، با توجه به رفتار ترامپ در جنگ اخیر و تهدیدات مکرر اتمی وی، به معنای تایید موج بعدی حمله به کشور، امضای حکم نابودی و تجزیه ایران و ترور مقامات ارشد آن است.
به خصوص در شرایطی که ایران پیش از جام جهانی و انتخابات سرنوشت ساز میاندوره ای در حال باز کردن تنگه و حل مشکلات سیاست داخلی ترامپ است؛ که میتواند موجب شود ترامپ مجلسین را حفظ کند و با مانع کنگره جهت جنگ افروزی جدید مواجه نباشد. اساسا ترامپ در بازه زمانی نوامبر ۲۰۲۶ تا پایان دوره ریاست جمهوری خود با هیچ مانع سیاست داخلی برای حمله به ایران مواجه نیست و با توجه به نفوذ شدید اسراییل در کاخ سفید فعلی، باید این را پیش فرض گرفت که به احتمال زیاد وی ممکن است سرنوشت سیاسی ونس و روبیو را فدای خواسته های لابی اسراییل کرده و به شکلی بسیار بی محاباتر از جنگهای ۱۲ روزه و ۴۰ روزه به ایران حمله کند، و ای بسا این بار برای بستن پرونده ایران و نیل به "راه حل نهایی"، به سلاحهای غیر متعارف نیز متوسل شود. (طبق سند NPR منتشره در ۲۰۱۸، موضع هسته ای ترامپ بشدت تهاجمی است و استفاده از سلاحهای اتمی در مقابل اقدامات متعارف را موجه میداند)
در حال حاضر در تقابل با ایالات متحده و رژیم اسراییل که هر دو از تمامی خطوط قرمز بین المللی عبور کرده و برای جنایات خود هیچ مانعی نمی بینند، راهی وجود ندارد جز آنکه تغییر در دکترین هسته ای به شکلی جدی در دستور کار مقامات ارشد کشور قرار گیرد، و مکانیزم ماشه ای طراحی شود که به محض تهدید موثر نظامی ایران توسط ایالات متحده یا اسراییل، ایران بشکل خودکار از NPT خارج شود. (لذا بهتر است نامه اطلاع شورای امنیت در اسرع وقت تهیه و ارسال شود) اینکه ایران بتواند در کوتاهترین زمان ممکن پس از خروج NPT تست کلاهک هسته ای خود را انجام دهد، شدیدا به رفتار اطلاعاتی و ضداطلاعاتی حوزه هسته ای وابسته است.
ایران در جنگهای اخیر نشان داد که توانسته از بخشهای موشکی خود در برابر نفوذ سیا موساد تا حد خوبی حفاظت کند، و تستها/عملیاتهای فضایی و موشکی ذیل نیروی هوافضای سپاه بدون سابوتاژ موفق شدند به اهداف خود دست یابند؛ پس با استفاده از تجربیات این حوزه میتوان حوزه هسته ای را بشکلی حفاظت کرد که در لحظه موعود بتواند بدون تاخیر اعلام موجودیت نماید.
ایران در قالب "آخرینانعطاف هسته ای" خواهد کوشید که نشان دهد هنوز آماده تعامل با جامعه جهانی است، اما اینانعطاف باید دارای شکلی باشد که نه تنها قابلیت بازگشت دفعی وضع صنعت هسته ای را به شرایط پیش از توافق را داشته باشد، بلکه بتواند در شرایط حساس ایران، شرایطی که پس از تهدیدات هسته ای ترامپ حساستر نیز شده است، کشور را به بازدارندگی هسته ای مسلح نماید و مانع تعرض بی محابای ایالاتمتحده و اسراییل به خاک و شهروندان ایرانی گردد.
ایران از حیث حقوقی دست بسیار پری جهت توسل به ماده ۱۰ NPT و خروج از آن دارد و در صورت مذاکره با چین و روسیه و پیشبرد راهبرد "انعطاف هسته ای در برابر ماشه هسته ای" و تهیه بسته های حقوقی سیاسی مناسب برای ایندو، با توجه به سابقه ایندو در دور زدن قانون منع اشاعه ناشی از ملاحظات استراتژیک در مورد کشورهای پاکستان، کره شمالی و هند، و بدعت گذاری حقوقی بیسابقه آنها در مورد اسنپبک و دست پر تهران در استناد به ماده ۱۰ NPT (خصوصا تهدیدات مکرر اتمی امریکا و بمبارانمراکز تحت نظارت آژانس) میتوان امیدوار بود که ایران از تبعات حقوقی تغییر دکترین هسته ای خود تا حد زیادی مصون بماند و در عین حال مانعی بزرگ جهت تکرار حمله به تمامیت ارضی خود ایجاد نماید.
در پایان شایان توجه است که نگرانیهایی از جنس احتمال حمله پیش دستانه ایالات متحده و اسراییل، با توجه به اینکه در دو جنگ اخیر عملا محقق شده اند، بیشتر به "خودکشی از ترس مرگ" شباهت دارند و مستمسک خوبی برای دادن امتیازات هسته ای گسترده بشمار نمی روند. ایران باید در این بزنگاه تاریخی، تصمیمی درست بگیرد و جهان را با "آخرین انعطاف هسته ای/ماشه بزرگهسته ای" در برابر یک دوراهی قرار دهد: پذیرش ایران مسلح به سلاح اتمی، یا احترام دائمی و بی قید و شرط به تمامیت ارضی ایران.
به وقت ایران@Bevaqteiran
🔻 خروج اورانیوم خط قرمز است: واگذاری اورانیوم غنیشده یک خطای راهبردی و دعوت به تهدیدات مرگبار نامتعارف است. 🔻 انعطافِ الاستیک: هرگونه توافقی باید بازگشتپذیر باشد؛ یعنی حفظ کامل زیرساختهای زیرزمینی برای بازگشت فوری به غنیسازی ۹۰ درصدی در صورت نقض عهد. 🔻پایان مماشات: در برابر رژیمهای توسعهطلبی که مرزی نمیشناسند، تنها زبان کارآمد «زبان قدرت» است؛ اینجا جای تصمیمات احساسی نیست. #به_وقت_ایران
فارسی
Iranian parliament spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei says the U.S. is “begging” for negotiations with the Islamic Republic, adding Tehran has not requested talks or a ceasefire “even once” since the war began.
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Susan Collins is spineless and corrupt.
And in 163 days, we will defeat her.
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@Bevaqteiran Keep the blockade Trump. Make these Fuckers beg for a deal.
Never negotiate with terrorist. Remember???
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بازی آمریکا روشن است:
فشار حداکثری به اقتصاد ایران و امید به «شبکه نفوذ داخلی» برای فروپاشی از درون (شبهکودتا).
دست ما با توافقات کلان، فوری و راهبردی با چین و روسیه در مذاکرات اسلام آباد پر می شود.
#به_وقت_ایران
فارسی
@ScottJenningsKY US Navy can't find the mines. Or wipe out the boats.
Iran IRGC is in control.
Pretty obvious @POTUS
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🚨After receiving a briefing from a Senior TRUMP Administration Official on the status of the Iran negotiations (someone in the know & not just speculating), I can tell you the following:
-USA IS NOT GIVING IRANIANS MONEY FOR NOTHING. All speculation and propaganda to the contrary is false. Some hardline elements of Iran’s govt (IRGC) have pushed fake stories & propaganda to try to kill this negotiation.
-Iran deal is NOT done (95%, but still haggling over some language). No deal being signed today. May be a few more days before this is done.
-Iran will NOT get any money or sanctions relief up front.
-Iran must turn over nuclear stockpile to get anything. USA position is that failure to meet deal commitments means Iran gets nothing.
-Long term USA objective is preventing Iran from having nuclear weapon.
-Initial deal point is to re-establish free flow of commerce by reopening Strait of Hormuz.
Deal should have 2 phases:
Step 1 - Open Strait of Hormuz. Give world economy breathing room. Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium.
Step 2 - Get the nuclear material turned over. Only then can Iran get sanctions relief.
Bottom line: goal is to make a deal that lowers costs for Americans, calms world energy markets, and guarantees that Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon over the long term. We aren’t there yet. Iran takes forever to get you a response on even small things. But we are close although it still could be a few days.
“If we get what we are demanding, this is going to be a historic deal,” SAO says.
SAO sounds prepared to do no deal at all if all Iran will do is a “bad deal.” SAO admits deal could fall apart yet. But if a deal is reached, SAO expects very senior USA admin officials to take part in a signing ceremony of some sort.
Iran has agreed in principle to the framework but there are still a couple points USA isn’t satisfied with. 95% done. But literally changing words sometimes requires days in Iran’s system. Haggling over language. But USA feels like we have a commitment on nuclear stockpile and on opening Strait of Hormuz.
If IRAN doesn’t deliver on commitments, they get nothing.
“Iran’s ability to project power is a lot more limited than it was two months ago,” SAO says. “Their industrial base for building ballistic missiles has been substantially destroyed.”
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In conflict, civilians always pay the highest price.
Civilians must be protected. At all times and in all places.
Civilians are #NotATarget
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🚨 HEZBOLLAH CALLS FOR LEBANON’S GOVERNMENT TO BE OVERTHROWN
Hezbollah’s Secretary General is openly calling on the Lebanese people to take to the streets and topple the government.
Why?
Because the Lebanese state is being pressured to confront Hezbollah’s weapons and Iran’s grip on the country.
This is not resistance.
This is Hezbollah threatening Lebanon from within.
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Here are some of the Iran deal details according to N12
1.Iran will clear the mines it scattered in the Strait of Hormuz
2.The U.S. will gradually lift the naval blockade
3.Iran will be able to sell oil freely
4.Frozen Iranian funds will be unfrozen subject to Iranian concessions
5.Negotiations will be held on limiting Iran’s nuclear program
6.Iran has agreed in principle to relinquish its uranium stockpile and suspend enrichment
(Please note, Iranian media denies point 5 and 6.)
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In other words, the war is over, we're stumbling toward some version of the JCPOA, America is out billions of dollars and lots of weapons that we didn't need to waste, and the United States is now weaker and Iran in a strategically stronger position.
And for what?
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