MosheEcon

Na Nach Nachman Nachman Meuman @naanaach #EconTwitter

@hasidic_1 Listen man, If you were unemployed and had no marketable skills, you'd do this too. Amnesty international pays $30 an hour to protest.

באמערקט אויפן סאבוועי

This is literally every conversation I have in shul during kiddush when someone says "hey so you're an economist right?? Hear me out.."

@Ourit @thevillagerabbi You sound unemployed.

@thevillagerabbi How long is it going to take you to wake up and realize that putting all your faith in America is Avodah Zara, Zalmy. And while you’re at it so is believing your Rebbe is going to come back from the dead and serve as the Messiah we’re all waiting for.

Do people really take this at face value, or is it obvious this is strategic politics by Donald Trump, keeping ties with Qatar intact, trying to stabilize oil prices, and calm the markets? I mean… come on.

This is retarded

@FrancoisGeerolf @wbmosler @R2Rsquared From macro 101, in the AD-AS model, In the short run, aggregate demand moves more than aggregate supply.

@MosheEcon @wbmosler @R2Rsquared Why should GDP growth be correlated with inflation ? The grey episodes seem to suggest it's not that systematic (e.g. stagflation). And even theoretically, the link isn’t that clear-cut, or is it?

Is the Phillips curve useful to make sense of inflation? A.W.H. Phillips first postulated a negative empirical correlation between inflation and the level of economic activity. Looking at inflation in 2021-24---up and down---versus measures of unemployment---roughly unchanged---shows little correlation. Has the Phillips curve failed, yet again? No, it did not. Friedman and Phelps, almost 50 years ago, clarified that this correlation should only hold keeping expected inflation fixed. Almost every account of how firms choose prices or bargain wages with their workers predicts that expectations would show up in a Philips curve. Moreover, those models of behavior further add that increases in marginal costs (supply shocks) would further shift out this relation. The empirical Phillips curve has for many decades meant a negative relation between inflation and real activity, controlling for expected inflation and supply shocks. The left figure below shows on the vertical axis inflation, after controlling for expected inflation---mean and disagreement from a household survey---and for supply shocks---gas prices and global supply pressures. The horizontal axis shows a measure of slack in the labor market---the log of the ratio of unemployment to job vacancies. The Phillips curve held nicely and steadily throughout. A criticism of that figure is that its is looking in the rear view mirror: the measure of supply shocks and the measure of slack were developed in the last few years and the data has been revised. The right figure does instead an out-of sample exercise. Estimate a regression of inflation on (i) expected inflation, (ii) the difference between the unemployment rate and the CBO estimate of its non-cyclical component, and (iii) the PCE energy price index. Do it on data pre-pandemic: 1984Q1-2020Q1. Using that estimated equation, predict inflation in real time from then onwards using the data releases available at the time of the forecast. The Phillips curve was a pretty good predictor of inflation throughout. The Phillips curve was stable during the inflation surge, and it predicted well the movements in inflation, with expectations playing a key role in those predictions. Notes: it is important to include the right measure of expectations to understand inflation-activity dynamics at a business-cycle frequency: the short-horizon expectations of households and firms. (For instance, the long-horizon expectations from professionals, or the expectations from models in policy institutions, as in my previous two posts, are the wrong measure.) Sources: (i) Section 3 in Reis "Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021-24? Channels and Evidence from Expectations" (ii) The simple exercise on the left figure is inspired on the analysis of Bernanke and Blanchard “What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?” (iii) The simple exercise on the right figure is inspired on @jadhazell "Comment" in the NBER macro annual 2025, which in turn built on Beaudry, Hou, and Portier "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"

@FrancoisGeerolf @wbmosler @R2Rsquared Thank you for the picture, but this did not address my comment. If Inflation<-> GDP Growth and GDP Growth<-> Unemployment then Inflation<->Unemployment. The phillips curve is graph of a second stage. These are always unclear but present.

@MosheEcon @wbmosler @R2Rsquared Dear Moshe We know of many historical episodes with high unemployment, high inflation (stagflation, missing deflation) or low unemployment, low inflation (missing inflation, or even deflation together with growth) These happen to be under flexible rates.😉 fgeerolf.com/cepii/2021-09-…

@NotJewboi @mokhanhim

@mokhanhim next time.

Top 5 worst jews of 2026 so far 1. Bibi Netanyahu 2. Jeffery Epstein 3. Laura Loomer 4. Mark Levin 5. Ben Shapiro

@endimem_music @DBashIdeas This

@DBashIdeas very feminine request, David.

ok, here is a picture of basically every book I own. Can someone else count for me? My office:

@endimem_music Lol

raising money for yungerlite who can't afford blood for the matzah this year. 100% of the money goes to the yungerlite

>Captive Dreamer goes to 770 >Immediately gets asked if his mother is Jewish or maternal grandmother is Jewish. >Says no >Still dons tefillin and gets a shot of vodka.

@captive_dreamer This was pretty funny.

Easily one of the funniest videos to have come out in recent memory

The ones I met just say Traump

BRB going to install this on all the computers in my department.

We would have probably found another Mersenne Prime if all the megaposters here had the GIMPS software installed. mersenne.org/various/works.…

@moymiz @NBCNews This looks like an older @BerelSolomon

@NBCNews A Jew from Israel.

More registered voters in the U.S. view Israel negatively than positively, driven by change among independents and especially Democrats, according to a new NBC poll. nbcnews.com/politics/2026-…

@aryehazan I always make sure to move my yarmulka to the top of my head and shuckle a little when I teach Pontryagin's maximum principle. This way he gets a chelek of my olam hazeh.

sure don’t make them like they used to

@LucasGageX I like the redemption arc going on here. But I want to clarify that you have a divine purpose in creation and that does not require you to be a Jew or subservient to Jews. Everyone is created in the image of G-D- including you!

This is why the goyim deserve to be enslaved.

@wbmosler @R2Rsquared Is there a tradeoff between GDP growth and inflation? Is there a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation? If you answered yes to both of the above. You believe in the Phillips Curve.

@R2Rsquared No

@BobMurphyEcon @RepFine Have your places of worship been shot at recently?

@RepFine If my son wanted me to help him pick a fight with all of the other students who lived in his dorm, I would tell him no that's both immoral and not in your long-run interest. Did I just curse my son?

Sounds like Tucker Carlson is learning this the hard way. "And I will bless those who bless you, and the one who curses you I will curse." Genesis 12:3

@Awesome_Jew_ So when are you getting Gypsy on your podcast?

Things get tense when white nationalist Gypsy Crusader meets Adin Ross for the first time. The encounter quickly goes off the rails while Ross streams wearing a kippah.