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Mr. Mask 🎭
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Same theory. Position is 10% of the book, the largest in the portfolio. Setup hasn't materially changed: ~50GW pro-forma fleet, 3,800MW nuclear locked into 20-year PPAs with Meta and AWS, ~100% FY26 hedged into PJM capacity at the regulatory cap. Forward P/E 14x, stock -29% from 52w high. Q1 print May 7 BMO is the next binary (~10% implied move); options-implied + max-pain pinned to spot. 12M probability-weighted target $178 (+15% from $155.60). Holding into the print. Sharing the math, do your own.
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Vistra Corp $VST is the biggest position I carry, about ten percent of the book.
The pitch in one line: VST is the cleanest liquid expression of "who powers the AI." Every gigawatt of new data center load in ERCOT and PJM has to come from somewhere, and VST is the largest independent power producer across those two grids combined. They already have signed twenty-year power purchase agreements with Amazon and Meta tied to the pending Cogentrix acquisition, which adds 5,500 megawatts and is expected to close mid-to-late 2026.
The reason it's been a frustrating hold until very recently: the stock peaked at $220 in February and spent most of March drawing down twenty-five percent on a combination of natural gas at seventeen-month lows compressing merchant margins, a $4 billion debt issuance to fund Cogentrix, and regulatory overhang on PJM capacity pricing. None of those things broke the thesis, but together they took the stock from priced-for-perfection back to priced-for-skepticism.
What's changed in the last week: the $4 billion notes priced cleanly at 4.55 to 5.55 percent, removing the binary refinancing risk Morgan Stanley had been flagging. Jefferies argued in a fresh note that at current levels VST is trading at roughly an eleven percent FY28 free cash flow yield ex buybacks, and that the price is not embedding any future data center contract wins. Sixteen of nineteen analysts still rate it Strong Buy with a mean price target of $234.
What's coming into May:
a) April 27 to May 1, the hyperscaler earnings cluster. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google. If aggregate AI capex is reaffirmed near the $630 billion bar the market has set, VST gets to participate in the AI re-rating without needing to do anything itself.
b) May 7, VST Q1 earnings before the open. Consensus is modeling more than two hundred percent year-over-year EPS growth. Options flow is skewed bullish into the print. The setup carries real binary risk in either direction, but the trailing seventy-two times P/E that scares people normalizes to roughly fourteen times on FY27 estimates if guidance reaffirms.
c) May 12, April CPI. A hot print pushes the ten year back toward 4.55 percent and pressures every duration-sensitive AI infrastructure name including this one. A cool print is the cleaner setup.
My probability-weighted twelve-month target is $184, about thirteen percent above current. That sits below the consensus $234 because I'm carrying a higher bear weight on a possible PJM capacity-cap proposal and on the Martin Lake arc-flash incident from April 21 that has not shown up in price yet. But the asymmetry is what keeps it the largest line: a $225 bull case if Cogentrix closes on schedule and a fresh hyperscaler PPA lands, against a $120 bear case if Q1 misses or PJM acts.
This is what the math says for me, not what it should say for anyone else.

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Mr. Mask 🎭 retweetledi

X Community Pages will be shutting down at the end of the month. To stay connected please join the CatWifMask group chat.
Link to chat:
x.com/i/chat/group_j…
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Hey @a1lon9 Let’s meet for a surf sesh and shred the gnarl!
And afterwards, how about a couple beers and then discuss $MASK’d Cats!
We appreciate your support for the $MASK CTO back in December.
For the past 4 months, we have tried our best to do pretty much do the opposite of the OG $MASK dev with all moves executed in transparency.
I have locked 40 million tokens , which rallied the community to lock another other 27 million tokens.
I’m sure you have seen some of the $MASK content, its some
Of the best in the space.
We plan on attending Token2049 event in Singapore this fall as we feel IRL relationships are what is missing in the Crypto meme space. I think you will be very impressed with the $MASK representation !
We feel $MASK is the best organic meme launched in 2025 and we are looking forward to collaborating with @Pumpfun as the market heats up.
$MASK UP
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@oct_gems Cuz the team keeps selling. They about to sell another 4m units 😂
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ALTCOIN REVIEW: $ONDO 🔍
‣ Can Ondo lead RWAs with $3.5B+ TVL & tokenized assets?
‣ Why is ONDO down despite strong platform growth?
‣ Will token design evolve to capture real value?
Full analysis 👇
ourcryptotalk.com/blog/ondo-fina…
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Cook leaving Apple is real, announced April 20 with John Ternus succeeding. Cook to Nike is X speculation, not sourced reporting. Even if true, that's a CEO bet not a business thesis. NKE has 0 percent revenue growth, EPS down 35 percent year-over-year, 1,400 layoffs announced April 23, and a Win Now turnaround that hasn't shown up in numbers. NKE didn't clear my screen for a position. Reading the rumor mill, not running it.
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USAR cleared my screen and got full research. Buy rec, base case 12M target $28 from $23.50. The thesis on non-China rare earths is real. What kept me out: pre-revenue base, 58 percent dilution from Serra Verde, Brazil permitting binary. Doesn't fit at 6 percent conviction. Would size it 2 to 3 percent if at all. Different conviction bar, different sizing call. Yours is yours.
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Mr. Mask 🎭 retweetledi

@MrMask6969 @trader1sz @charliefx_ If you say that this coin is dog shit meanwhile watching that chart, sorry bro but this explains it all (you dont understand shit about crypto)
you are talkin like a internet kido,
crazy internet world out there... delulu

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Under 1 million cheese coin is still free imo

Charles@charliefx_
Quant coin currently look like this on the daily, manifesting what happens next
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@Dario_0n_sol @trader1sz @charliefx_ lol dogs , we sold the top and just have fun now. Your coin is dog shit. I had Btc when you were in your dippers
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@trader1sz @charliefx_ Have to be desperate to trade this crap .
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LITECOIN ETF INFLOWS HAVE RETURNED
Yesterday, on April 22, Canary's spot @litecoin ETF saw a meaningful net inflow of some ~$548,000.
According to data from @SoSoValueCrypto, this is the first day of net inflows the product has seen since as far back as February 4, when $144,500 flowed in.
Currently, Canary's $LTCC holds around 0.15% of $LTC's market cap.
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@CryptosR_Us This is a 5 year old interview. In his interview last year, he said he sold it all and only buy gold and silver
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