Random Muppet

7K posts

Random Muppet

Random Muppet

@MuppetTrading

I'm tweeting for entertainment purposes only. Before you act on any of my tweets, ask yourself - is "Random Muppet said so" really your thesis?

NOT in the GS Elevator Katılım Ağustos 2012
1.1K Takip Edilen2.8K Takipçiler
Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@christinaqi Well, consider youself a salesperson as well, you got me to sign up.
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Christina Qi
Christina Qi@christinaqi·
Our team got a good laugh out of this because... Databento has 1 salesperson... 😅
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@tailrisked The reason for fcel drop was the 2ndary after claiming they are ok with their balance dheet on last call. So different reasons for moves.
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tailrisked
tailrisked@tailrisked·
kinda comical this was months of investigative work and $FCEL ended day down 2x $BE. again, not hating on hunterbrook at all, and love in principle what they are doing, but you need more than the scandium narrative to justify the way the content is delivered. btw going to go buy some scandium on the open market right now for our offices. adding to the collection of rare earths.
tailrisked@tailrisked

This $BE piece is a nothingburger. expected a lot more from @hntrbrkmedia given their fancy charts and html renderings. the core of their argument is basically that bloom has started routing orders through third party countries. and that they aggressively count the backlog. everyone already knew that. I was really rooting for the hunterbrook team to increase quality of investigative journalism but this was a big dud. guess they are going the way of the rest of these short sellers.

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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
Yes $NBIS is well off the highs already but the setup looks increasingly bad for them.. not only one of the largest customers becoming a competitor apparently per $META news yesterday, there is a n-t risk to the numbers as well according to BNP Paribas.. not good for a company that needs to keep raising $$
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@SouthernValue95 Citi right now re future consolidation: "we believe transactions that could trigger a subsequent change of control may need at least 6 months and up to 2 years to retain the tax-free nature of the current pending spin-off."
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
"SpaceX ... could build its own terrestrial ​U.S. mobile network, President Gwynne Shotwell told investors during a recent IPO roadshow, the FT report said". A couple of angles here besides the obvious "more competition for $VZ $T": - for a terrestrial network, SpaceX would probably need towers.. so $AMT $CCI probably beneficiaries - $NN could be interesting bet for their spectrum.. either $SPCX may need more spectrum or T/VZ/TMUS may want to act defensively.. reuters.com/business/media…
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Hiroo Onoda
Hiroo Onoda@OnodaCapital·
Why can’t MU trade at a premium to SNOW 2021 rev multiple?
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@jukan05 If you are an AI bull, why on earth are you happy with MU success? Gauging supply chain like that and not actually alleviating the bottleneck hurts innovation cycle.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
I find it hard to understand why some people are interpreting Micron’s latest LTA signing as the end of the memory price upcycle. Signing an LTA ultimately means that the amount of supply in the market that has not yet been locked up is shrinking. In other words, the later a customer signs an LTA, the greater the pressure they face to secure stable supply, and the stronger their FOMO becomes. Over time, the fear of failing to secure enough memory will only intensify. That creates an environment where memory makers can secure LTAs on increasingly favorable terms. I do not think this LTA marks the end of price increases. If anything, I think it is closer to the beginning.
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@bubbleboi Stay humble my man. Sooner or later mkt humbles us all, often in unexpected ways. And often by not you being wrong per se - but by mkt being more wrong than one can predict or imagine.
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bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
I won’t let you guys down.
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading

@bubbleboi Love you but one risk is indeed you increasingly growing more confident the more mkt and stonks go up. You have the makings of a legends, none of us want to see you bubble this away.

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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@bubbleboi Love you but one risk is indeed you increasingly growing more confident the more mkt and stonks go up. You have the makings of a legends, none of us want to see you bubble this away.
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bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
Whoever shipped this to my apartment has a sense of humor
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Psyduck Capital Management
Psyduck Capital Management@psyduckcapital·
@jukan05 Think this depends on stage of market cycle. They will dump prices to gain volume when demand and therefore pricing starts to soften overall. The Chinese dump volumes when it gets bad, exacerbating it for everyone
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
This is actually a really important point. If CXMT’s DRAM ASP is only about 5–10% lower than Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron’s, it suggests that China currently has no interest in dumping memory. They want to make money too, don’t they?
Jukan tweet media
SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_

China’s CXMT Is Set to Challenge DRAM Incumbents CXMT IPO, SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung Competition, Process Node Deficit, China HBM, Wafer Adds, Memory LTAs newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-…

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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
Anyone heard of this SK *Hynik*? Seems like an interesting company!
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
GPUs are commodity add-ons to memory chips.
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Leo Schwartz
Leo Schwartz@leomschwartz·
Scoop: Two ex-DOGE employees raised $225 million for their debut venture fund Banner VC, the latest project to come out of Elon Musk's erstwhile cost-cutting operation. Banner raised an additional $75 million to co-lead a recent round into Impulse Space: theinformation.com/articles/ex-do…
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👍🏻@coolerkingcap·
@MuppetTrading the feasibility of this makes me put a near zero% chance of that happening.
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
Seemingly gone unnoticed but Trump said will bring back F-22 - pretty unexpected and would benefit $LMT
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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@saso_capital True sign is when slow Finns wake up to it and start chasing. Muricans always do murican things.
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saso capital
saso capital@saso_capital·
$NOK going parabolic has historically been the final form of all manic cycles. We are not there yet... but we are getting close.
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saso capital@saso_capital

My takeaways from writing my photonics article: • AI interconnects are multi-modal and will stay that way for years: copper AEC still wins on power/cost for short reach, pluggable 800G/1.6T is the current high-volume wave, and CPO + silicon photonics is the power-efficient endgame for scale-up. • Credo $CRDO is executing the most aggressive full-stack build: AEC leader + DustPhotonics SiPh + Hyperlume microLED + optical DSPs. Highest-growth name bridging electrical and optical across distance tiers. • Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI is the best way to play the current transceiver ramp with strong U.S. capacity buildout and geopolitical tailwinds, though it needs a clearer path into the next architecture. • Lumentum $LITE owns the narrowest chokepoint. Only high-volume supplier of 200G-per-lane EMLs today, and even CPO architectures still need external high-power lasers. NVIDIA has pre-allocated capacity aggressively with lead times past 2027. Structural winner with pricing power. • Tower Semiconductor $TSEM is the cleanest picks-and-shovels bet. $1.3B in 2027 SiPho contracts signed with $290M prepayments and capacity tripling underway. Every advanced CPO engine and PIC needs a silicon photonics foundry, Tower is where the industry is locking in supply. • Marvell $MRVL has the broadest platform (optical DSP leader, Celestial AI CPO, microLED, copper) but trades at a premium that assumes flawless multi-vector execution. • Key lesson: Don’t fight the physics. Copper where it wins on cost/power, optics where bandwidth density demands it. The most robust positions are those with optionality across both paths or irreplaceable components in the tightest bottlenecks.

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Random Muppet
Random Muppet@MuppetTrading·
@IvanTheK Is there such thing as "overhang" in the space w/ no gravity?
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