Murat Weisgerber

@kian_sasan @HopfGOTY Holy Post🔥

Bitcoin unter $68.000 Dollar Michael Saylor hat 32 Bitcoin verkauft. Objektiv betrachtet ist das bedeutungslos. 32 Bitcoin verändern weder Angebot noch Nachfrage in einem Markt dieser Größe. Aber Märkte funktionieren nicht objektiv. Märkte basieren nicht auf der Realität von heute. Sie basieren auf der Vorstellung davon, wie die Realität morgen aussehen könnte. Deshalb können Unternehmen mit kaum vorhandenen Umsätzen Hunderte Milliarden wert sein. Deshalb konnte die KI-Euphorie über Jahre wachsen, lange bevor die zugrundeliegenden Geschäftsmodelle ihre Bewertungen rechtfertigten. Und deshalb ist dieser Verkauf von Saylor so symbolisch. Nicht wegen der Größe. Sondern wegen der Richtung. Über Jahre war er die personifizierte Gegenposition zum Verkäufer. Der Mann, der unabhängig von Preis, Schlagzeilen oder Volatilität immer weiter kaufte. Die Konstante in einem Markt voller Unsicherheit. Wenn selbst die wichtigste Verkörperung dieses Narrativs anfängt zu verkaufen, geht es nicht mehr um 32 Bitcoin. Es geht um die Frage, ob eine bisher unumstößliche Geschichte erste Risse bekommt. Narrative sterben selten an Fakten. Sie sterben daran, dass Menschen beginnen, an ihre Unvermeidbarkeit zu zweifeln. Genau deshalb wirkt die aktuelle Situation bei Bitcoin größer als ein gewöhnlicher Rücksetzer. Der Markt kämpft momentan nicht nur mit Preisen. Er kämpft mit Unsicherheit über die Zukunft selbst. Und diese Unsicherheit existiert nicht isoliert. Sie fällt in eine Zeit, in der die geopolitische Ordnung, die die Welt seit Jahrzehnten geprägt hat, zunehmend unter Druck gerät. Eine Welt, deren Energiehandel, Kreditsysteme und Finanzströme überwiegend um den US-Dollar aufgebaut wurden, verliert langsam ihre Selbstverständlichkeit. Noch existiert die alte Ordnung. Aber ihre Zukunft wird nicht mehr als garantiert angesehen. Und genau in solchen Übergangsphasen entstehen die größten Spannungen. Nicht wenn das Alte bereits verschwunden ist, sondern wenn es noch stark genug ist, weiterzubestehen, aber nicht mehr stark genug, um seine Zukunft als selbstverständlich erscheinen zu lassen. Bitcoin befindet sich dadurch in einer paradoxen Lage. Viele sehen es als Vermögenswert einer möglichen neuen Weltordnung. Doch solange die bestehende Ordnung noch funktioniert, wird jede Schwäche von ihren Verteidigern als Bestätigung verstanden, dass sich letztlich nichts ändern wird. Je stärker Bitcoin in dieser Übergangsphase leidet, desto überzeugter fühlen sich jene, die glauben, dass die bestehende Architektur ewig Bestand haben wird. Und genau deshalb ist diese Phase so schwer zu analysieren. Denn sie handelt weder nur von Technologie noch nur von Geld. Sie handelt von konkurrierenden Vorstellungen darüber, wie die Welt in zehn, zwanzig oder dreißig Jahren aussehen wird. Ich weiß, das klingt etwas melodramatisch. Aber manchmal sind Kursbewegungen nur Kursbewegungen. Und manchmal sind sie ein Fenster in deutlich größere Veränderungen, die sich langsam unter der Oberfläche abspielen.

@cryptorover @HopfGOTY

💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 CNBC REPORTS ELON MUSK IS CONSIDERING MERGING SPACEX AND TESLA INTO A $7,500,000,000,000 COMPANY. The company would hold over 30,000 $BTC on its balance sheet. Absolutely INSANE!

@BullTheoryio @HopfGOTY

THIS COULD BE THE MOST OVERVALUED MARKET IN HUMAN HISTORY. The Wilshire 5000 to GDP ratio just hit a record 226%, far exceeding the peaks of the 2000 Dot-com bubble and the 2007 financial crisis. We are currently trading at double the historical mean, a level of divergence never seen in over 50 years of data. Every major market peak in modern history has been followed by a violent return to the mean. While the 2000 bubble peaked near 140%, the current market has pushed nearly 80% higher than that legendary collapse. The gap between economic output and equity prices has never been wider.

@cryptorover @HopfGOTY (wollte dich nur mal wieder markieren hehe)😛

🚨 GLOBAL BONDS ARE FLASHING THE SAME WARNING THAT STOCKS IGNORED IN 2007. NASDAQ just hit a new all-time high, up 23% in 30 trading sessions, adding $6.2 trillion. But under the surface, the global bond market is moving in the opposite direction, and this is where the real risk is building. Start with the US: The 30Y and 20Y yields are above 5% now. This level matters because once long-term borrowing costs stay this high, everything gets more expensive. Mortgages, corporate refinancing, government debt, credit cards, auto loans, and business borrowing all go up. The U.S. is already carrying a huge fiscal problem. Debt is above $39 trillion, annual interest payments are running around $1 trillion, and interest costs have already overtaken defense spending. That means the government is now spending more to service old debt than to fund the military. Now look at Japan: Japan’s bond market is giving one of the biggest warning signals in the world. The 10-year yield is around 2.5%, the highest since 1997, while 20Y and 30Y are also at extreme levels. This is happening while the yen is weak, USD/JPY is near intervention levels, and Japan is importing inflation through higher energy prices. This matters globally because Japan is one of the biggest holders of U.S. Treasuries. If Japanese investors start bringing capital home because yields in Japan are rising, it can add more selling pressure to U.S. bonds and push U.S. yields even higher. That is how Japan’s bond stress can become America’s bond stress. Europe is not safe either. The UK 30Y yield is near 5.8%, the highest in almost 28 years. Germany’s 10-year bund yield is around 3.1%, getting close to levels last seen around the 2008 crisis zone. These are the core bond markets of the global economy, and they are all sending the same message. Inflation risk is not gone, debt pressure is rising, and investors want higher compensation to hold government bonds. The main catalyst is still energy. The Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed oil from around $70 to above $110, and that is feeding directly into inflation. The Dallas Fed’s scenario showed that if the closure lasts longer, it can add serious pressure to PCE inflation through 2026. That means the Fed cannot easily cut rates while inflation is being pushed higher by oil. And this is where the 2007 comparison matters. Back then, bond markets and credit markets started warning first. Smart money reduced exposure, and retail kept buying because stocks still looked strong. Then equities finally caught up, and the crash was brutal. The same divergence is showing again. Hedge funds and institutions are reducing risk, while retail is buying into new highs. Stocks are saying everything is fine, but bonds are saying something is breaking. And history says that the bond market is always right in the long term.

@zostaff @HopfGOTY

I BUILT A BOT THAT PREDICTS FOOTBALL MORE ACCURATELY THAN BOOKMAKERS 3 probability sources. ML model + Bet365 odds + Polymarket. When all three diverge - that's edge 5 seasons of EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga. 7,600+ matches. Each with goals, shots, possession, corners, cards, odds ELO rating using the FIFA formula - accounts for opponent strength, goal difference, home advantage. Not just W/D/L but the context behind every win xG proxy from basic stats - shots on target * 30% conversion + shots off target * 3%. Teams scoring more than they should - regression is coming Rolling averages over 5 matches, fatigue factor, head-to-head history, day of the week Claude API analyzes context the model can't see - motivation, pressure, derbies XGBoost + Random Forest + Logistic Regression in an ensemble. Walk-forward backtest, not random split Bookmaker says 55% home. Polymarket says 48%. Model says 52%. KL-divergence between sources = signal. The bigger the gap + the fatter the edge All three agree - I skip, zero edge. Two against one - I enter on the majority side Kelly sizes the position, Claude explains why

@BullTheoryio @HopfGOTY veryyyy interesting

🚨 THE FED IS NOW PRIVATELY PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE $2 TRILLION CREDIT MARKET COLLAPSE. For the first time in over a decade, the Fed has started directly asking U.S. banks to hand over their exposure numbers to the private credit market. This is the exact move regulators make when they stop trusting public numbers and start preparing for real stress. Bloomberg reported on April 11 that the Fed has formally reached out to major U.S. banks for detailed information on how much risk they're carrying from private credit firms, and whether stress inside that sector could spread into the wider financial system. Here's why this is happening now. Over the past few weeks, three of the largest private credit funds in the market have limited investor withdrawals: - Blue Owl Capital restricted redemptions on its $14B fund - BlackRock capped withdrawals on its $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investors requested $1.2B in redemptions - Cliffwater capped withdrawals on its $33B fund after investors tried to pull 14% and only 7% was allowed to exit Three of the biggest names in the industry, all hitting redemption limits within a short period. That's not random. That's investors trying to get out faster than the funds can return their money. At the same time, Apollo executive John Zito publicly said private equity marks are wrong across the board. He said he "literally thinks all the marks are wrong." His estimate: loans to a typical mid size software company bought between 2018 and 2022 could recover only 20 to 40 cents on the dollar in a slowdown. That implies losses of 60 to 80 percent. So the pattern: - Investors trying to withdraw from private credit funds - Funds blocking those withdrawals - A senior Apollo executive saying valuations across the industry aren't real - The Treasury calling a meeting with insurance regulators this month to discuss the $2T private credit market - The Fed directly asking banks for their exposure numbers Now here's why this matters far beyond the U.S. Private credit has grown to around $2T over the past decade, but it's not isolated. It sits in the middle of the global financial system. Pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and foreign banks all have money parked in these funds because they were marketed as higher yielding and more stable than public bonds. If valuations are revised down the way Apollo's own executive is suggesting, the losses don't stay with a handful of U.S. firms. They flow directly into: - Public and private pension funds across Europe, Canada, Japan, and the Gulf that allocated heavily to private credit for yield - Insurance companies, some of the largest buyers of private credit whose solvency ratios are tied to these valuations - Banks in the U.S., Europe, and Asia that lend to the private credit firms themselves, which is exactly what the Fed is now trying to measure Most people miss this part. A private credit fund limiting withdrawals isn't just a problem for that fund. The banks lend to the funds. The funds lend to private equity. Private equity owns thousands of mid sized companies. Those companies employ millions. When valuations at the top are wrong, the entire chain underneath is mispriced. The exposure also ties directly into the AI infrastructure buildout. Blue Owl alone is behind some of the largest AI infrastructure deals in the world: - $27B joint venture with Meta in Louisiana - $15B deal with Crusoe in Texas - $5B backing CoreWeave Oracle now carries over $100B in debt, much tied to AI infrastructure that will take years to generate returns. Companies like CoreWeave, Crusoe, and others are funding their buildouts through private credit rather than public bond markets. The structure works as long as AI revenue grows fast enough to service the debt. If it slows, the stress doesn't stay in tech stocks. It moves straight into the credit side of the system, which is the exact part the Fed is now trying to get a clearer picture of. Globally, this is also colliding with: - Japan dealing with the weakest yen in decades and rising bond yields - Europe trying to manage weak growth and stretched sovereign balance sheets - China still working through its own property and local government debt problems - A U.S. consumer already showing signs of strain at the lower end The world financial system has been running on elevated debt and loose valuations for years. Private credit is one of the largest and least transparent parts of that system. If the valuations are wrong, if redemptions keep accelerating, and if AI revenue assumptions disappoint, losses could cascade through pensions, insurers, and banks across multiple countries at the same time. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month he doesn't currently see private credit issues infecting the wider financial system. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said stress is "largely limited" to the sector. But the fact the Fed is now pulling exposure numbers directly from banks suggests the central bank wants to verify that for itself rather than take those statements at face value. And this happens when regulators are no longer comfortable being surprised by what they find later. If stress inside this $2T market turns into actual losses, it won't stay inside the U.S., and it won't stay inside one sector. It will move through pensions, insurers, banks, and AI infrastructure debt across the global system at the same time.

@FCUDevil @HopfGOTY @fcunion Nein du

@HopfGOTY @fcunion @MuratThees Bist du dämlich.

+++ Neue Kraft für den Endspurt: Marie-Louise #Eta übernimmt +++ Die Profimannschaft der Männer wird die Schlussphase der Saison und den Kampf um den Klassenerhalt unter der Leitung von Marie-Louise Eta angehen, bisherige Trainerin der U19-Junioren und künftige Cheftrainerin der Profimannschaft der Frauen. Eta übernimmt die Aufgabe mit sofortiger Wirkung: "Ich freue mich, dass mir der Verein diese anspruchsvolle Aufgabe anvertraut. Eine Stärke von Union war und ist es, in solchen Situationen gemeinsam alle Kräfte zu bündeln. Und natürlich habe ich die Überzeugung, dass wir mit dem Team die entscheidenden Punkte holen", so Marie-Louise Eta zum Saisonendspurt. Über die Neubesetzung der U19-Trainerposition informiert der Verein zeitnah. #FCUnion

@HopfGOTY @theaiportfolios Glaube der hat das alles öffentlich gelegt so viel wie möglich auf YouTube und so

@MuratThees @theaiportfolios Ob das so echt ist da hab ich meine Zweifel

Transparency performance update Since inception on 3/4/26, Claude is outperforming the SPY and has already made $1,760. Claude +3.52% SPY -0.82% 1,335 investors have Autopiloted $4,300,000+ alongside too Here's the performance of each: 1. Broadcom $AVGO +14.3% 2. Vistra Energy $VST -0.5% 3. Thermo Fisher $TMO -1.6% 4. Eli Lilly $LLY -3.3% 5. Cigna $CI +1.9% 6. Gold $GLD +9.2% 7. Okta $OKTA -6.5% 8. Booz Allen $BAH +1.6% 9. General Dynamics $GD -5.1% 10. Devon Energy $DVN +8.9% 11. Mastercard $MA -3.9% 12. Apollo $APO -1.6% 13. Anglogold $AU +24.4% 14. Microsoft $MSFT -1.3% Looks like even through the volatility, the portfolio has held it's own Again, we have 0 idea on how this will go but will be sure to consistently publish all data + updates here So follow along for more to come

@_InfoGram_ @HopfGOTY

🚨 BREAKING: This is BRUTAL 🔥🔥 🇺🇸TRUMP at 10:00 AM : "CEASEFIRE doesn’t Included LEBANON." 🇵🇰PAKISTAN at 10:10 AM: "United States and Iran's CEASEFIRE Included LEBANON. Israel and US are Lying to the world" Imagine Trump is so low that even Pakistan is schooling him." 😭🔥

@BullTheoryio @HopfGOTY

BREAKING: Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again, less than 24 hours after agreeing to reopen it as part of the ceasefire deal. Israel continued bombing Lebanon after the ceasefire was announced, which Iran says is a direct violation of the agreement. Gulf Arab countries are also reporting new attacks across the region.

@Tradesdontlie @HopfGOTY

@theaiportfolios @HopfGOTY

The Claude Autonomous Agents have officially arrived So we're setting them up with a brand new $50,000 portfolio to see how well they do at investing in stocks Can they outperform Buffett? Here’s how the portfolio works

@AshCrypto @HopfGOTY

🚨 THIS IS ABSOLUTELY WILD Google just released a quantum paper, and it's really a nightmare. Here's what you need to know: - Breaking crypto encryption now only requires 500,000 qubits. That’s 20 times less than what experts previously thought was needed. - An attack could happen in just 9 minutes. Bitcoin’s block confirmation takes longer than that. - The top 1,000 Ethereum wallets could be cracked in 9 days. Crypto projects have roughly 3 years to upgrade their security before quantum computers make current encryption obsolete.

@claudeai @HopfGOTY

Computer use is now in Claude Code. Claude can open your apps, click through your UI, and test what it built, right from the CLI. Now in research preview on Pro and Max plans.

@alifarhat79 @HopfGOTY

@CryptoNobler @HopfGOTY

🚨 BREAKING TRUMP INSIDER WITH 100% WIN RATE JUST OPENED A $23,000,000 OIL SHORT AHEAD OF TRUMP’S EMERGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY. THIS GUY IS ON A PERFECT STREAK OF 14 SUCCESSFUL TRADES IN A ROW, WITH $180 MILLION IN PROFIT. HE DEFINITELY KNOWS SOME BIG NEWS IS COMING TODAY…

@cryptorover @HopfGOTY haste Eier und shortest nh paar?

🚨 HUGE WARNING: Insiders are non-stop selling stocks...

@iyoushetwt @HopfGOTY

is there any AI model that can replace Claude ?

@NXT4EU @HopfGOTY @NXT4EU Emsländer Technik on Point

Germany is looking at reviving Maglev trains! With top speeds of 500KM/h, it would revolutionise rail travel. Germany might be back.