MEG reborn

▶️ You will see Brexiteers cling to the argument that because the 🇬🇧 grew recently at a similar rate to 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 there is no Brexit damage. ▶️ But economists at @GoldmanSachs, @nberpubs and others are not measuring the outcome but rather modelling what 🇬🇧 itself would have achieved had it not done Brexit: i.e. no new trade barriers and no new red tape with our larges market. ▶️ Every serious organisation that has modelled this has found a significant and growing Brexit drag on where the 🇬🇧 economy like have been otherwise. ▶️ What they are saying is we’ve weakened the 🇬🇧 economy to be like 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 when we should be growing much faster. ▶️ This is what @nberpubs found in its 2025 paper — “The Economic Impact of Brexit” by Bloom, Bunn, Mizen, Smietanka & Thwaites: 1️⃣ “By 2025, Brexit had reduced 🇬🇧 GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time” 2️⃣ “Investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%” 3️⃣ “Employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%” 4️⃣ “These forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade” “These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.” ▶️ How much has this cost us by these calculations? Some £180–240 billion.

Well done @AndyBurnhamGM ❤️

One of the first decisions made by Essex Reform was to remove the Ukrainian flag from County Council HQ. Let that sink in. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…