My Financial Diary

I’ve spent 5 years in finance and keep grinding. Here are 7 things I wish I knew before my first trade 🧵

@ncontextfinance I always buy the dip.

$META So the judge ruled Meta and YouTube were basically putting crack in the algorithm… ~7% wipeout and $70B gone in one session 😂 You still buying the dip?

@unusual_whales While global growth is moderating OECD sees ~2.9% GDP with G20 inflation near 4% the UK’s heavy energy import dependence and weak underlying momentum leave it lagging peers across the G7 into 2026.

The UK will suffer a bigger economic hit from the Iran war than any other G-7 nation this year, the OECD has said

@DeItaone Rate cuts keep moving like a mirage.

UBS: FED RATE CUTS PUSHED TO SEPTEMBER UBS now expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts until September, followed by another in December, as inflation and geopolitical risks persist. Economist Andrew Dubinsky says the Fed is waiting for clear evidence inflation is falling, with core PCE still around 3% and partly driven by tariffs. Rising oil prices linked to Iran and a stable labor market are reinforcing a “wait-and-see” stance. UBS expects conditions to improve in 2026, but warns the timing of cuts remains uncertain.

@zerohedge Great take 😂

So they are negotiating after all

@biancoresearch At this rate we’ll fit three more cycles in before Friday.

Quick summary of the week: Monday, 48 hours almost up, we are going to blow everything up Wednesday, we are going to get a deal. Thursday, no deal, we are going to blow everything up. How many more cycles of this will we have by next week?

@unusual_whales Buy the dip is upon us.

Investors are shifting back to cash, per JPMorgan

@DeItaone Millennials can’t afford, boomers won’t sell. Perfect gridlock.

RISING MORTGAGE RATES COOL HOUSING DEMAND Higher mortgage rates are pushing homebuyers to the sidelines. Pending home sales fell 1% year over year—the biggest monthly drop—according to Redfin, while new listings edged up just 0.3%. The average mortgage rate has climbed to a three-month high of 6.22%, with daily rates reaching 6.55%. Combined with a 1.8% rise in home prices, this has pushed the median monthly payment to $2,695—the highest since June. Bottom line: affordability pressures and economic uncertainty are dampening buyer demand.

@zerohedge So we skipped diplomacy. Sounds like freedom is on the way.

IRAN REJECTS U.S. PROPOSAL DELIVERED VIA MEDIATOR, VOWS TO CONTINUE FIGHTING

Historically, these spikes are one day wonders that vanish by the second day of the new quarter. You should only be concerned if you see the following three red flags: Rates stay elevated for a week or more. A massive spike (like 2019, when rates hit 10%). The Fed has to launch emergency liquidity injections.

Overnight Repo Rises as Quarter-End Pressures Start to Take Hold: BBG

@DeItaone The combination of safe haven demand, anticipated rate hikes, and relative economic resilience to energy shocks provides massive structural support for the US dollar. The path of least resistance for the $DXY in this environment is up.

INVESTORS FLEE TO CASH AS UNCERTAINTY SURGES Investors are shifting back to cash in a move reminiscent of 2022, according to JPMorgan, as geopolitical tensions and policy risks rise. Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou says investors have been pulling out of equities, bonds, and gold since the Iran war began, boosting cash holdings instead. The shift reflects fears that central banks could repeat past policy mistakes, especially as energy shocks risk fueling inflation and forcing further rate hikes. Markets have already priced out expected rate cuts and are now anticipating increases in the coming months. While cash allocations have only risen modestly and remain low historically, they are still weighing on stocks and bonds. Meanwhile, equity positioning has dropped sharply from recent highs, signaling growing caution among investors.

@zerohedge Seizing the island is viewed by some U.S. policymakers as a decisive maneuver to cripple Iran's war effort, while military analysts and regional allies warn it is a highly escalatory gamble with heavy human and economic costs.

Iran "Laying Traps" And "Building Up Defenses" On Kharg Island, Preparing For U.S. Ground Attack zerohedge.com/markets/iran-l…

INVESTMENT TRACK $UBER is growing slowly but steady. Before the home assistant humanoids we will probably see a lot of AVs on the streets.

The BoE's smooth glide path to the 2% inflation target has been derailed. The compounding pressure of sticky domestic services inflation and massive external energy shocks means the cost of living squeeze is entering a tough new phase. How do you think the Bank of England should handle this? Hike, cut, or hold? 👇 $GBPUSD $DXY $BRENT $FTMC #BoE

⛽ 6/ WHY THE NEXT DATA PRINT WILL BE UGLY The next CPI release on April 22 (covering March) will capture the full force of the new energy shock. Motor fuel was the biggest downward pull in yesterday's data; next month, it will be the primary upward driver. Plus, surging oil makes moving goods more expensive, meaning supply chain contagion will likely push goods inflation up, too.

UK INFLATION UPDATE Yesterday’s Feb CPI print dropped, and it paints a tough picture for markets and households. We are watching sticky core inflation collide with a massive new global oil shock. Here is a breakdown of the data, what it means for your wallet, and the Bank of England's next move. 🧵👇