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Inspired by PECOTA Day... what can we learn from disagreements between projection systems? neifi.co/lessons-from-c…
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NEIFI Analytics
476 posts
NEIFI Analytics
@NEIFIco
Systematic (e)valuation. Baseball.
New York, NY Katılım Kasım 2015
553 Takip Edilen2.8K Takipçiler
The "Colorado Braves", constructed as such, are nearly 8 wins per season less talented than the actual Houston Astros.
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Having one of the available NEIFI licenses isn’t cheap. Having anything but the sharpest possible vision for individual assets and organizational planning is far more costly. The precision shown here is certainly not universal, but hopefully illustrative.
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@tangotiger @mitchellichtman Back to injuries: seems like a simple matter of projection accuracy. Meaning, if one over-projects PT for elite (or any) players, yes, you'd have inaccurate proj's. But that seems like simply a player-level projection issue, summed. (And, one that would need to be addressed).
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@tangotiger @mitchellichtman Wouldn't in-season trades, which tend to be presently weak teams trading talent to presently strong teams, in fact widen talent gaps, rather than contract them? 1/
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@CardHard11in11 Certainly don't disagree with the concept. Just that a GM's relative level of influence is far less direct with draft/intl signings and player development than it is with pro transactions, where it is virtually absolute.
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Brewers: just 1.4 fWAR from pre-FA homegrown players this year. Subtract them entirely, they'd still be a playoff-caliber team. Despite bottom-third payroll. Competitors: Cardinals 18.9, Cubs 17.1, Pirates 13.3, Reds 4.3. David Stearns is the best GM in the game.
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@CardHard11in11 Fair question. To clarify, we'd say a GM's primary control is evaluative (maximizing talent received for talent/dollars committed), and in this sense, the Brewers have been uniquely amazing.
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Phillies with an amazing defense today (Santana 3B, Hoskins LF, Bour 1B, Williams RF, Cabrera SS). Per NEIFI, 0.32 RA/9 worse than average. Which taken alone would reduce their win expectancy by more than -.030.
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Change in odds of reaching World Series (win or loss, in yellow) based on today's trades alone. 10k sims. Dodgers make biggest improvement in total odds.
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The Astros currently have a 106-win MLB roster by true talent, and a top-end farm system.
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What Freddy Peralta reveals to us about deception, stuff, upside, and evaluation.
neifi.co/freddy-peralta…
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A NEIFI MLB team license: costs somewhat less than the difference between Arrieta and Mikolas. twitter.com/NEIFIco/status…
NEIFI Analytics@NEIFIco
Congrats, Cardinals. Per NEIFI, Mikolas handily outperforms Jake Arrieta over next three seasons. Massive bargain, fantastic bet to be the most underrated FA of 2017 class.
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NEIFI Analytics retweetledi
Now is as good a time as ever to announce this: I work for NEIFI now.
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NEIFI Analytics retweetledi
Here’s the article that shows how far Bauer might have gone to prove his point: theathletic.com/337974/2018/05… twitter.com/lexhooper/stat…
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Brewers-Reds, on Russian Viasat Sport TV, being broadcast in Armenia (in Russian):
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