UFC Garrison

@jedigoodman Is anyone and I mean ANYONE buying that answer??

Dana White on the Brady/Buckley line movement: This thing pulled massive numbers tonight on Paramount, so it's not surprising when a card this good and a fight like that, you know, for the line to move.

@UFConParamount @ChaelSonnen Speaking of ppl with information. Turns out din is cornering Sean Brady tonight , who is seeing massive money coming in against him…

"Most people that have information... are picking Strickland." - Din Thomas On The Road with @ChaelSonnen

@BestFightPicks You double down. When we woke up to de valle dropping, did we stop firing?! No

I have Buckley +160. What should I do?

@MattyBetss It’s happening again

Why did Sean Brady move 50 cents on fight day? Anyone explain 👇🏻

@ufc @JoshuaVanBT @tatsurotaira @paramountplus Van didn’t know what to do w his hands. Taira sub incoming

YOUNG GUNS FIGHTING FOR GOLD @JoshuaVanBT vs @TatsuroTaira [ #UFC328 | MAY 9 | 9pmET | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ]

@I_AM_SATURDAY Alvarez’s tendency of chasing chokes & punching his opponent as he’s being taken down could & likely will cost him an entire round which is scary v a sub artist of amosovs caliber

How can you justify laying (-192) on Yaroslav Amosov? This is Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico all over again. Success outside of the UFC cannot be used as a measuring point to predict UFC success. Joel Alvarez at (+160) is an absolute no-brainer. #UFC328

@ChampRDS @katiemillerpod Dana’s rebuttle anytime someone questions the UFC’s use of AI can’t just be because it’s the future & happening now. That doesn’t strengthen jack squat. His “team” needs to give him a better explanation as to why it’s the move

Dana White says the ENTIRE UFC White House promo video was made with AI, including his voice 🤯 "[AI] is not the future, it's now. It's already happening." (via @katiemillerpod)

@realkevink @JaxxonPodcast three undefeated opponents in a row

🚨FIGHT NEWS🚨 Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat For June 20th #UFCVegas119 📰: @JaxxonPodcast

@BrodysBets I don’t think Van style is built to win from behind being the body shot , builder he is. Not one hitter quitter power. If he finds himself chasing late, hes going to strike over aggressively and Taira will counter by finding his hip , which Taira can do even while gassed

@NFLGarrison To be fair, Van still stuffed the vast majority of takedowns from Tsuruya. I don’t think Van is just gonna stuff every takedown, but if Taira doesn’t sub him immediately or just control him the entire time, how does he look?

I still think the line on Van vs Taira is too wide. Should be closer to even. Taira’s striking defense is too big of a hole for me to assume that he just auto subs Van. Van has very good anti grappling stats in the UFC, and has faced a lot of takedowns.

@BrodysBets These stats won’t matter when distance gets closed in a matter of seconds. See how persistent Rei was to get into clinch up against the fence. He got to advantageous spots that Tatsuro will be doing more with. Will be able to better blend his striking into TD entries. Creativity

Taira has a -1.35 sig strike differential at distance, 47% sig strike defense (vs Van 58%), 50% head strike defense (vs Van 65%), with Van spending 83% of his time at distance. Even if you think Taira wins, you can’t look at this data and say Taira should be -200.

@finz_the @VincenzoMerante Waldo’s habit of overextending strikes + heavily planted stance are gnna make it so his feet get kicked out from under him. Look at that back foot. Don’t sleep on volkov counter lows

@NFLGarrison @VincenzoMerante I guess we’ll see

WHY is [+145] Waldo Cortes-Acosta the underdog..? 1. Throws with more volume a. Throws with equal if not more power 2. Ability to mix in TDs a. Volkov was taken down TWICE by Cyril Gane 3. Not a huge size gap a. Usually Volkov's strength 4. 3-1 as a UFC underdog #UFC328

@VincenzoMerante @finz_the Did this tape exercise today &vince is right. Volkov is going to kill Waldo w technique, freezing him on feet.

@finz_the Go watch Volkov vs pavlovic. Then go watch pavlovic vs waldo and you'll know why he is the underdog. If you want a safe bet you can bet ov2.5 or fight gtd

@jewishbettormma @LiamPicksFights Absolutely. Rongzhu benefited from having trained w Kody in past. When he found himself on top, he knew to immediately leave kodys guard. Guy likely feels DIFFERENT down there

@LiamPicksFights Playing with fire grappling that man

Nasty jiu jitsu from Kody Steele Dom Mar Fan was doing well in the exchanges, but when it went south, it got bad real fast

@Stuckey2 What if I told you football was an option, right now even @UFLonFOX

Hearing Mike Tirico on a weekend at 845 makes me miss football

@MMAUNCENSORED1 Asim, president of KC being in over his head part 7

Patricky Pitbull altercation at Karate Combat face-offs 😳

@arielhelwani Agreed. This is how you sell a fight

What a great promo. A nice reminder that creative (non-AI) promotional work still exists in combat sports. Matchroom team continues to be top of the class in that regard.

@BigMarcel24 If this is what matchmakers have in store for bekzat, I can’t wait to see who aleksandre gets

Bekzat Almakhan will fight Jean Matsumoto at #UFCBaku on June 27th. (first rep. Sportilinet on IG) #UFC #MMA #UFCParamount #UFConParamount #UFC2026

@robpizzola The price on Phillips +124 (18%) is dropping. +142 last night, and if it keeps going down, it doesn’t matter what splits show, it’s sharp vs square matchup. Splits are conviction builders

@NFLGarrison you lost me...

Lots of talk on the timeline today about the importance of betting splits. My take is that they are detrimental to sports bettors. I hate doing these threads but the algorithm loves them so here we are.

@robpizzola As @grpwins says, bet teams , not numbers

@robpizzola At a minimum, they’re a tool to find RLM, which can identify “sharp spots”. If a +160 dogs line is crashing and it saw 87% of tickets before the move down, Idc what the % are at current price, the initial move is enough to NOT bet the favorite. Or maybe I’m overvaluing CLV