John J McGraw

@EJXD2 @ThruTheBridle @turfpunter @VSiNLive @PaulMattiesJr @beatingthebook @BillKrackman Public odds are a signifcant input in their models. Read Bill Benter's stuff. His 1st model was 45% his odds line 55% public.

@ThruTheBridle @turfpunter @VSiNLive @PaulMattiesJr @beatingthebook @BillKrackman False

Today on A Number Game, award winning horse racing handicapper @PaulMattiesJr joined @beatingthebook and @BillKrackman to discuss the chilling effect of Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) on horse race handicapping. 🏇 For more, check out: linktr.ee/ANumbersGame

@NotSoAngryScout With league employees as well. Told me specifically about a since retired Hall of Fame QB who would get oral sex from a mid level marketing women whenever he would visit league offices. She would brag about it.

@NIGHTANDDAY211 Your friend is right. Happens a ton! League office is a corrupt cesspool. I know of someone who worked there and left solely due to how corrupt it was. Goodell knows a lot and doesn’t do a thing. The league office is really bad. You wouldn’t want your daughter working there.

A few reasons. He is sleeping with other media and a lot of media is doing this. Keep an eye on those who ignore it. They are doing same thing. People like Caserio, McVay, Slater, and many, many more from teams and media want this to go away desperately.

@abracing0 Thanks very much!

@NIGHTANDDAY211 sp.netkeiba.com

It’s hilarious how when a Japanese horse beats a good American horse on their home soil, it must automatically be ‘juiced up’ Most of these people don’t even care to watch replays or look at the form beforehand, where he recorded a 122 speed figure last time out

@russneis @GhostofSwiftH @raypaulick Could be. But I'm a statistician by training. Those metrics make that pretty unlikely overall

@NIGHTANDDAY211 @GhostofSwiftH @raypaulick Could be they was fed up and too difficult to enter even a drop in class claimer because trainers go on HISA website and see the vet list too much risk if it gets on the list again 30 days

McPeek needs to STFU . Dudes a butcher Dude had 2 horses escape from his barn past 2 years at OP . One horse actually killed someone to

@russneis @GhostofSwiftH @raypaulick 90 days to race again? For "sound" horse. No way. more than 2X the cohort. 20%+ never raced again. Look at the tables.

@NIGHTANDDAY211 @GhostofSwiftH @raypaulick Multiple reasons can't have a workout for 14 days with a blood drawl which can take longer, need to find a race that fits the condition, and some owners just get fed up and leave the sport or transfer to a different track

@GhostofSwiftH Two of the biggest zeros in racing. And there are a LOT of zeros

They will use this kid to they move onto next thing

@GhostofSwiftH grantchandlerrewards@yahoo.com. Thank you.

@GhostofSwiftH Thank you sir

@NIGHTANDDAY211 Yes once get everything

Shit Im giving Optix more advertisement then anything. Emily should pay me now😂

@NFL_DovKleiman Was she really that fucking stupid? I guess she was.

@Tonysmarkettips You have been on top of all of this. Likely the Titans found about Russini in 2023 and it was one reason they fired him. In hindsight I think most NFL teams knew and that's why they were lukewarm on hiring him. I didn't understand it at the time but now it makes sense.

I think Mike Vrabel was trying to take his family out of state to an area without cell service so they didn't have to see the news live.... then New York Post hit the nuke button early. Said in my video this morning I thought he knew something was coming.

@2yovar Plus what you can't see. He was raised on a very good farm Summer Wind on soil with a near perfect calcium to phosphorus ratio meaning he's likely to be a super sound horse. If they don't lay down that good bone as a weanling they won't be a sound racehorse. No issues here.

Time to address the historic purchase of the Flightline colt. I’ve read many comments some critical, some astonished, some judgmental. That’s normal on social media today, where everyone has an opinion, even when they know very little about the subject. I even understand them perhaps I would think the same way if I hadn’t been there. For many, the final price was shocking. For those of us who were actually there, it wasn’t shocking at all. When an owner is willing to pay this kind of money, it’s obviously because others wanted the horse just as badly. But what makes someone pay such a high price for a horse that, as we all know, offers no guarantees? On the morning of April 2nd, while watching horses train ahead of their official breezes (usually shown 7 days later in the catalog), I had the chance to see this colt for the first time. As many of you know, I always carry my handycam to record and analyze these works later in detail. At first glance, I thought: “Wow, what a relaxed and efficient action.” With years of experience, I could already tell his stride length was well above average. Still, I needed to review the video closely. The result left me astonished almost in disbelief. Honestly, I couldn’t believe what I had recorded that morning. To keep it short: there’s an old saying in this game “when you think they’re going slow but the clock shows an impressive time, that’s when you know they’re really special.” I immediately contacted my clients and told them we were looking at a prospect on another level. A full week before the breeze show even started, I assured them their eyes wouldn’t see anything close to the quality of this horse among the remaining 1,200+ horses in the catalog. I even told them that if this colt simply repeated what he “prepared,” he could become the most expensive horse ever sold at OBS. The day of his official breeze arrived. I suggested they watch it live, and they did exactly at 9:05 a.m. on April 11th. The result was exactly what I expected. In fact, it was, without question, the most impressive breeze any horse has ever produced in the history of two-year-old in training sales. He broke the pole in :9.3 a time that has been matched by several horses in recent years. However, most of those who hit :9.3 couldn’t maintain that power and speed through the next 1/8, 1/4, and 3/8. The closest was probably Shisospicy two years ago, but this colt was clearly on another plane. Beyond the time, the way he did it was spectacular. His stride length and mechanics were simply breathtaking. Unlike the day I first saw him (when he was mostly on his left lead), this time he performed perfectly on his right lead, switched cleanly to the left on the turn, and continued galloping the 3/8 after the pole back on the right lead again. A breeze that borders on perfection. Then we looked at the pedigree. Why pay so much for a fast-working horse? Because he is by Flightline the Secretariat of our time. An exceptional racehorse whose place among the all-time greats is already a debate for another day. And who is the maternal grandsire? None other than Into Mischief, the greatest sire of the modern era and a multiple champion leading sire. Physically? He combines the best of both lines beautiful and correct, with a lot of Into Mischief in his color and markings, but also that athletic, distance oriented look from Tapit, the legendary sire of Flightline. Finally, the veterinary evaluation sealed the deal: a heart with a capacity significantly larger than average, with a projected racing distance of up to 10 furlongs. X-rays 100% clean, positive ultrasound on ligaments, tendons, and suspendories, a Grade 1 throat, both testicles perfectly descended, zero signs of pain, no bucked shins, and no muscle wear after such an effort remarkable for a young horse. This isn’t about ego or speculation. The person with the money can afford the luxury, of course. But for me, it was about the feeling of letting a horse go who… 🧵

@noirgal17 I remember that episode. His mom wouldn't let him play Little League.

Elizabeth Montgomery #BOTD and James Mathers (Jerry’s little brother!).

@RayLV702 @EJXD2 @turfmichaeld @FairmountPk I'm not sure I have seen that data. The clients I work with are all very large bettors and they all play 10 cent supers. That said, they all LOVE the higher minimums. They told me they lost a lot of their edge when super mins went from $1 to 10 cents years back.

@NIGHTANDDAY211 @EJXD2 @turfmichaeld @FairmountPk You’re ignoring the fact that 10-cent minimums push away large bettors, so you just have to pick your poison.

When @FairmountPk opens tomorrow for its 2026 season, it will do so with a $2 minimum on its Pick 3 & Pick 4 wagers. horseracingnation.com/news/Fairmount…

@RayLV702 @EJXD2 @turfmichaeld @FairmountPk I don't disagree. It rewards largest bettors. I'm not passing judgement, I'm agnostic on it. I'm just saying with retail handle down 10-15% this year, do we want to push a greater # of players away? We don't have enough bodies gambling on the sport to begin with.

@NIGHTANDDAY211 @EJXD2 @turfmichaeld @FairmountPk and i know a bunch that started playing more because they raised them

@NTamm1215 There are a LOT of big time owners that don't realize that either. Track execs...don't even get me started. I've been in meetings with most of the big time execs (years back). Only one that any any clue was Charlie Hayward. Kee guys, CD guys, DMR guys... clueless.

It’s hard for people to admit there’d be no racing without betting. Always surprises me some feel that way.

@EJXD2 @FairmountPk They have a HUGE bankroll advantage. They can play $5k pick 4 tickets if need be. You can I can't. Of course at FP with 6 horses fields it's not really an issue. 🤣 It has mattered at KEE though with retail guys having to whittle down their plays.

@NIGHTANDDAY211 @FairmountPk It's not better for them. If you have $1,000 to optimally spend, then 2,000 combinations is much more precise than 500.

@fatbaldguyracin He's been training great in them. He's got an issue swapping leads and Mott's been working on that.

OOOHH DOnt like that !! Jon White STRIKE