Nico Brennan 🇵🇸

@JesusFerna7026 Si, solo quería añadir un pequeño matiz que me parecia interesante, disculpas si sonaba un reproche, muy fan de tu análisis

@NNico4500 Si. Mi argumento es unicamente que esa decision del PSOE es endogena a la demografia electoral.

En X, he insistido repetidas veces en que la política española desde 2000 solo se puede entender como la consecuencia de que el PSOE se percata de que, sin el voto nacionalista y cuasinacionalista de Cataluña, del País Vasco y de Navarra, no puede gobernar en España. Simplemente, no hay base demográfica para formar una mayoría electoral de izquierdas sin este voto. El certificado de nacimiento es del 13 de noviembre de 2003, cuando Zapatero prometió en el Palau Sant Jordi que “apoyaré la reforma del Estatuto que apruebe el Parlamento de Cataluña”. Ayer, en la segunda parte de unas muy interesantes memorias, César Antonio Molina theobjective.com/elsubjetivo/op… ilustra esta realidad electoral mejor que nadie (quizás sin percatarse de ello completamente). Molina narra la discusión con Zapatero sobre el futuro de los papeles del Archivo de la Guerra Civil de la ciudad de Salamanca: “Le expliqué al presidente todo el asunto reiteradas veces y le recordé la importancia universal de Salamanca y que no era justa esta humillación que se extendía a toda Castilla y León, precisamente de donde él era originario. Llamó a una secretaria y le dijo que buscara el número de diputados socialistas que aportaba esta comunidad autónoma y que los comparara con los de Cataluña. Poco después, regresó con la respuesta en papel. La contribución catalana era abrumadora con respecto a la castellana. El presidente me pasó los papeles y con una extrema frialdad y malestar me dijo: «Aquí tienes la respuesta. ¿Algo más?».” A uno le puede parecer fenomenal lo que se hizo con el archivo, le puede parecer mal o le puede dejar indiferente. No entro en ello y es irrelevante para este post (aunque seguro que muchos lectores insistirán en dejar comentarios al respecto porque son incapaces de pensar de manera abstracta y olvidarse de los detalles concretos). Lo que esta discusión demuestra es “la política sin romance”: detrás de las grandes declaraciones y principios, siempre, siempre, siempre hay un cálculo electoral, seas del PSOE, del PP, de Vox o de cómo se llame Sumar esa semana.

RAJOY HA VUELTO ❤️

You killed the man But not the idea

Pues esto para los nuevos estudiantes que vengan a Madrid es una absoluta putada, si antes daba igual estar algo lejos de tu universidad ahora va a ser casi indispensable.

@JJ_McCullough In all fariness, for liberals, Biden is too recent, Carter too distant and both too disappointing to have as a favourite, Bill Clinton has a complicated legacy and is in the Epstein files plus fields credible SA allegations. That leaves Obama as the default answer.

I feel like we tend to overstate the popularity of Ronald Reagan and understate the popularity of Obama. I think it’s because far-left people hate Obama, or at least portray him as deeply controversial, and they have an outsized voice in a lot of modern media.

@souljagoyteller Not trying to be in bad faith, in an unlikely hypothetical scenario where Molotov Ribbentrop last 10 years, is the final solution still not the logical end point for German antisemitism?

How does this have a community note. When we talk about the Holocaust we don’t just mean “the persecution of Jews in Nazi Germany”, we mean the Final Solution. That begins out of a consequence of Operation Barbarossa

@JesusFerna7026 Currently visiting Bangkok for a trade show and was struck by that same question. Seems a birth rate far beyond the point of no return. Might be able to coast by from rural immigration to cities and immigration from neighboring countries for a while, but for how long?

Thailand has one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in the world. In 2025, the TFR was 0.87, and the preliminary numbers for the first months of 2026 are even lower. The rate is so low that deaths have exceeded births since 2021 and now run 34% higher than births. Thailand’s fertility collapse has always fascinated me. With a flight to a Bank of Thailand conference in Bangkok ahead of me, I spent some time reviewing the data. Thailand’s TFR fell below replacement in 1991. That is early. It means completed fertility has been below replacement for at least a full generation. In 1991, Thailand was neither rich nor well-educated. Even today, its income per capita (in PPP, the right measure here) is about Mexico’s level, around 28% of the U.S. The standard theories for East Asian ultra-low fertility, such as a toxic educational arms race or extreme gender inequality, have little bite here. On the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index 2025, Thailand scored 0.728 and ranked 66th. South Korea scored 0.687 (101st of 146), and Japan 0.666 (118th of 148, last in the G7). I think Thailand is the clearest example of modernity without high income, and that combination is a recipe for demographic collapse. To illustrate this point: if Thailand’s TFR remained at its current level for 200 years, the population would decline from 65.8 million in 2025 to 1.51 million in 2225. While this is a hypothetical scenario used to make the argument, not a forecast, it gives a sense of the magnitude of the population change involved unless TFR increases at some point. This is not about closing a few maternity wards or fixing Social Security, but about winding down an entire country. Does anyone have a better theory? I don’t have enough information on Thai demographics, and I am happy to update my view. Two caveats. First, I use Thailand’s official data from the National Statistical Office. The UN WPP data (and the databases built on it, such as the World Bank’s) are, as always, way off. Second, the official statistics may undercount births somewhat. Even if they do, the picture changes little.

@souljagoyteller Remember reading fear and loathing in the campaign trail when I was 19, finding out that Midwestern poles were an important demographic target like.

Ethnic bloc voting in urban centers is as American as apple pie

@BrendyBoyle One very unpopular note that will never be brought up by Spanish policy-makers is that we have far too many self employed people and are a drag on the economy since SMEs will always struggle to provide the productivity gains that power higher salaries

Some replies to this: 1. ‘Or the miserably regressive autonomo system?’ 2. ‘Opening a new business in Spain is complex, slow, and very expensive. Running one is exactly the same, or more so. It just isn't worth it for most. It positively discourages entrepreneurs. It’s crazy.’

unfortunately the catholic church declaring holy war on AI is raw af

Ahora Rajoy redacta tweets.

Españita is a spectrum

Exceptional.

MIREU MIREU ELS PLATANERS TOT JUST PLANTATS AAAAAAAA FILLS DE LA GRAN PUTAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Unia Europejska jest niedoskonała, irytująca, nudna, ale niczego lepszego w naszej historii nie wymyśliliśmy. Czas pokoju, dobrobytu, wolności, demokracji i solidarności między narodami przez wieki walczącymi ze sobą to cud. Niech trwa jak najdłużej.

big update to wikibarrio: - a new, more polished ui - redesigned side panel with sparklines + historical trends - points of interest overlay (schools, hospitals, pharmacies, supermarkets, train/metro stations, parks) - share-as-image cards try it out! wikibarrio.es/?v2

👩‍⚕️Primer chequeo de los cachorros de #linceibérico 🐾 Tras su primer mes de vida, pasan su primera revisión veterinaria: 🙀  🧬 Identificación del individuo  🦠 Descarte de enfermedades  ✅ Control de salud 📹 Camada de Umbrella en Centro de cría de El Acebuche