Nate Cohn

Fun job opportunity: work on NYT election graphics nytco.com/careers/job-li…

And while this is only just a matter of the margin at this point, the third of the Davidson election day precincts we have so far - D 73%, ~6000 votes -- is basically in-line with our estimates, putting Van Epps on track for a 7 pt win or so

We still don't have much Election Day vote, but the data we do have shows Van Epps getting what he needs. The exact turnout and vote share in Davidson is still a huge variable, but we already had high expectations for Dems there

The polls have closed in TN07. We've got another set of VA/NJ-style estimates-but-not needles for you nytimes.com/interactive/20…

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No probability needle tonight, but our estimates -- based on precinct x method data - give Spanberger a significant lead and put Jones ahead nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Job alert: Election Analytics fellowship at the NYT. A great early career opportunity for anyone interested in nonpartisan election data and analysis nytco.com/careers/early-…

@ZacharyDonnini @PoliticalKiwi @vvksurf no, not nearly enough - like 20. we only did one state poll there, unfortunately, and black voters aren't an especially large share of the vote there

@Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @vvksurf Thanks, this is super interesting. wonder how much of the FL stuff is carribean descent Black people (rather than ADOS) in mixed Black/Hisp tracts being way less Dem. Is there enough N for these splits in Hisp maj vs. White maj vs. Black maj tracts for FL?

Although Harris still barely won Hispanic voters in 2024, Trump made massive gains—carrying Hispanics in 16 states and winning 61% of them in Florida. Harris ran best with Hispanics in the Southwest, in Midwestern cities, and in New England.

@ZacharyDonnini @PoliticalKiwi @vvksurf Now I put this last, rather than first, because this data is pretty sparse. I'd probably take the over on Harris at 75% of the major party Black vote in less Black block groups. But the preponderance of evidence here suggests her support was weaker than you might otherwise guess

@ZacharyDonnini @PoliticalKiwi @vvksurf And finally, here is the fragmentary n=135 data on Black voters from the core Deep South (LA, AL, MS, SC) that, along with prior GA data, is probably most directly responsive to your question