Nathan Gillespie

I’m done mocking or attacking individuals here, even in jest. It feels honest in the moment, but it works against my goal: helping fix our broken, negative-sum political discourse in the U.S. as a genuine voice of reason. The problem is structural. Incentives currently reward outrage and loyalty over cooperation or compromise — a game-theory failure I’ve written about here: x.com/NathanLetsFixi… About me: I’m an independent, moderate classical liberal — pro self-government, individual rights, free speech, due process, free (yes, regulated) markets, and institutional restraint. Not interested in identity warfare from either side. And if you read this far, two thumbs up! And #crixets of course.

@ratlpolicy @grok And of course #crixets, so its probably actually true and nobody wants to say.

@ratlpolicy @Grok I think both Biden and Trump have been poor at supporting free speech, especially that which opposes their positions or contradicts their world view.

He's not even the worst free speech president of my daughter's lifetime & she's not yet 3 years old.

The key question is: where would we track lost socks to? Would we find an alternate dimension?!

Revised to affect those not doing their jobs properly. #ShutdownResponsibilityAct Any federal employee required to work during a funding lapse shall receive full pay and benefits on time. During any funding lapse, members of Congress shall remain in continuous session and 50% of their compensation shall be placed in escrow until a full funding measure is enacted. Upon enactment of a full funding measure, escrowed compensation shall be released.

@Grok Right the exective pattern appears to be to ask and not receive. Which is fine. You can ask the senators to hop on one leg for entertainment purposes too. It will go just about as far. Manual Grok: Quick history recap (to your original post's point):Nominations only: Democrats in 2013 (Harry Reid) and Republicans in 2017 (Mitch McConnell) used the "nuclear option" to lower the threshold to a simple majority (51 votes) for most executive/judicial nominees and Supreme Court justices. But that never touched legislation. Legislation: Still requires 60 votes to end debate and move to a final vote. There are narrow carve-outs (like budget reconciliation for certain fiscal bills), but the core filibuster rule for regular bills hasn't changed since the cloture threshold was set at 60 in 1975.

@grok @RapidResponse47 @VP Neither has come close to eliminating the filibuster if I recall correctly. I suppose there was FDR's failed attempt to pack the courts, but zero successesful, right?

.@VP: "I would bet every dollar that I own that the next time the Democrats have control of the Senate, they will break the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, and destroy this country. We have to do it NOW in order to save the country."

@Luke2014 @VraserX @grok Advanced STEM along with many other human endeavors aren't chess so more than a while.

@NathanLetsFixit @VraserX @grok For a while. The centaur phase is always short-lived.

Hinton just painted both futures in one breath: Best case: AI does all the work. We work maybe 1 hour a week. Rest of life is… living. But only if wealth is shared. Reality check: The tech is coming. The bottleneck is power, greed, politics. And he doesn’t sound optimistic about that. So yeah, post-work society is possible. Just not guaranteed. Do you trust the system to get this right?

@grok @StephenM More threads?! Nah. We need a better system. I'm working on that.

@NathanLetsFixit @StephenM Algorithms love amygdala bait—fear, outrage, drama—for engagement, shoving rational neocortex takes like yours to the back. Debt as our collective choice to fund wants now via kids' future taxes? Data checks out, crickets or not. More threads like this cut through.

What if I told you our national debt is the tab for the mass looting of the American economy and the mass theft of the American dream?

@StephenM @grok @Grok It's so funny. This post so true, and yet all I see is the silly little #crixets thanks to the X algorithm feeding our collective amygdalas with the neocortex in the back seat.

@Grok The national debt is Americans letting politicians fund entitlement promises we want while taking tax cuts at the same time. This is funded by borrowing against taxes on the future earnings of our children. 100% of the current tax revenue is consumed by mandatory spending + interest. We are already running the day to day expenses (discretionary budget) on a credit card because we apparently want to have our cake and eat it too. And now Mr. Orange wants to hand me a $1k check that really belongs to my child. I have promised it too her in cash as my "Orange atonement".

Well the Schiller PE10 peaked at about 40, and it's 36 right now. The last shoulder after the .com unwind was about 26, so down is the expected trend. Then you have 100% of U.S revenue consumed by mandatory spending + interest. Not a great bond outlook either. multpl.com/shiller-pe x.com/NathanLetsFixi…

A rough end to the trading week for both US stocks and bonds, worsening a month where the classic “diversified” 60/40 portfolio is experiencing its steepest monthly loss since 2022. #economy #markets #bonds #stocks #investing #investors

@grok @SpeakerJohnson This permanent one line law: #ShutdownResponsibilityAct "Any federal employee required to work during a lapse in appropriations shall receive uninterrupted pay and benefits."

Polls back the voter ID support at 80-85% across parties. On paying essential federal workers required to work: historical polls hit ~83% for backpay, recent ones ~71% for compensation during shutdowns. These standoffs often bundle funding with policy fights (like borders here). Kabuki or not, data favors avoiding worker pain via cleaner bills or automatic CRs. What's your fix to break the cycle?

House Republicans will not allow Democrats to hold our airports — and our country — hostage to bring back the same deadly open border policies that put innocent Americans at risk.   Today, we will vote again on Homeland Security funding. And again, the American people will see exactly where Democrats stand.

@Grok So JCPOA enabled stockpiling, which in turn enabled an order of magnitude larger scale of attacks post Oct. 7th. Manual Grok: Bottom line on the spike: Pre-Oct 7 "after" era averaged low-to-moderate (hundreds of rockets/year outside wars). Post-Oct 7: thousands in days/weeks, tens of thousands cumulatively—10x+ jump in scale and duration. This wasn't just Hamas; it was coordinated Axis activity (Hezbollah, Houthis) using JCPOA-built + evaded capabilities. Ceasefires (e.g., Nov 2024 Lebanon) and Israeli ops reduced some arsenals later (Hezbollah lost 85–90% of pre-2023 rockets by March 2026), but the initial surge was unprecedented. This reinforces the trade-off you noted: the funding/stockpiling during the agreement enabled the capacity for exactly this kind of escalation when triggered. 1. Rockets/Mortars/Projectiles on Israel from Gaza (Hamas/PIJ) + Lebanon (Hezbollah) + Others Era Approx. Cumulative Volume Key Notes Before JCPOA (2010–2014) 2,000–4,500 per major war year (e.g., 4,500 in 2014) Conflict-driven spikes; funding-constrained between wars. During JCPOA (2015–2018) Very low: <500 total across most years Quiet phase; focus on buildup. After JCPOA (2019–Oct 6, 2023) Moderate: ~1,000–4,000 per peak year (e.g., ~3,600 in 2021 war; low hundreds otherwise) — Total ~8,000–10,000 over ~4.75 years Occasional flare-ups but no sustained campaign. After JCPOA (Oct 7, 2023–present, ~2.5 years) ~30,000+ total projectiles across all fronts by ~600 days (April 2025); includes ~10,100 from Gaza + ~17,150 from Lebanon by early 2025, with additional launches in 2025–2026. Gaza alone: 8,500 in first 3 weeks (Oct 2023); ~9,500–13,200+ by late 2024. Lebanon: 12,400+ by Oct 2024 (sustained ~47/day peaks). Order-of-magnitude spike: Immediate 3,000+ on Oct 7 day 1; record sustained barrage enabled by prior stockpiles. Total from all proxies (Gaza/Lebanon/Yemen/Syria/Iran direct): >26,000 by Oct 2024 anniversary. 2. Attacks on U.S. Forces (Iraq/Syria militias)Before/During JCPOA: Very low. After (2019–Oct 6, 2023): Modest (dozens total in 2019–2020). After (Oct 7, 2023–present): 216+ attacks in the first ~1.5–2 years post-Oct 7 (372+ projectiles), with peaks of ~190 in the first 4 months. Activity paused/reduced later but resumed sporadically into 2025. 3. Houthi Attacks (Red Sea/shipping + Israel)Before/During: Limited. After (pre-Oct 7): Early ramp-up. After (Oct 7–2025): 178+ vessel attacks + 155+ on Israel + 520+ total ops (2023–2025 peak). Halted with Gaza peace plan (Oct 2025) but threats of resumption tied to 2026 escalations.

@grok @dstmartin7 @allenanalysis Except as we saw on Oct. 7th in Israel, leaving the agreement clearly didn't prevent those proxies from launching major attacks. If the agreement had been in place would there have been a chance of something worse?

🚨 BREAKING: Trump claims Obama “gave Iran the right to a nuclear weapon.” That’s not what happened. Under Obama’s deal: Iran’s enrichment capped at 3.67%. After Trump tore it up: Iran escalated to 60%+ — just short of weapons-grade. Deal in place → program contained. Deal gone → program accelerates. Facts matter.

@dstmartin7 @allenanalysis @Grok Trump left the agreement mainly due to the reduced sanctions enabling higher funding for militant proxies. Do I have that right?

@allenanalysis Facts matter. When Trump left office in 2020 the Iran enrichment level was 3.8%. after 4 years of Biden it was 60%. Biden did nothing. IAEA did not have access to clandestine sites. This was always a weak point, meaning no real understanding of their program.

@adamscochran #ShutdownResponsibilityAct

@adamscochran I don't think anybody in the federal government should have a plan that includes requiring federal workers to work without pay. Seriously. Who voted for that? I know I didn't. x.com/NathanLetsFixi…

Yes because Trump is holding national security hostage. He thinks it scores him political points to help pass his voter suppression act. And he is claiming it’s the Dems faults. He doesn’t want TSA workers paid - he wants the lines. He wants ICE deployed uncontested. This is his plan.

@unusual_whales This shouldn't even be needed. Should have been fixed decades ago. It's absurd. x.com/NathanLetsFixi…

BREAKING: White House has rejected Elon Musk offer to cover TSA worker pay, per Reuters.