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117 posts

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@NavilaSky

thoughts of a crazy person - AI and technology intrigues me

Katılım Temmuz 2021
408 Takip Edilen72 Takipçiler
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Nope@NavilaSky·
@OddStockTrader How did you come up with that number? They don’t really produce anything themselves and in the given environment i do not see any moat here. Am I missing something?
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Nope@NavilaSky·
I think that is really individual. To me at least, revisit your initial thesis/analyses - Have anything changed, size down, or buy the dip. I am by far more invested in my three high conviction picks than before and have reduced my exposure to a number of high risk/ high reward plays.
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jalen Horner
jalen Horner@robot_maniac·
@NavilaSky Yeah, I hear you. October was rough for a lot of people. How are you approaching things differently this time around?
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Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
Are any of you wankers actually making any money, or are you just moaning on here?
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Nope@NavilaSky·
I think that is really individual. To me at least, revisit your initial thesis/analyses - Have anything changed, size down, or buy the dip. I am by far more invested in my three high conviction picks than before and have reduced my exposure to a number of high risk/ high reward plays.
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Nope
Nope@NavilaSky·
@kinpatsukenshi Green lantern came back from a space mission to save earth 🫡
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Bekay
Bekay@kinpatsukenshi·
Apparently there's a volcano erupting right now in the Philippines. I'm watching a livestream when suddenly there's this extremely bright green fireball coming from a completely unrelated trajectory. Is that a meteor?
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Astrid Wilde 🌞
Astrid Wilde 🌞@astridwilde1·
Probably dumb to step in front of a moving train but finally bought back into $NTDOY. $10.50/share simply seemed egregious.
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Nope@NavilaSky·
@jbulltard1 Acquisition of Mirantis might have sparked some hope of a greater deal being announced soon.
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jbulltard
jbulltard@jbulltard1·
What’s up with $iren wild action today, next $hut?
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Nope@NavilaSky·
I do not know how old Antonio is, but looking at his appearance he doesn’t strike me as old. Either we have a trust fund guy, who’s portfolio was professionally managed early on, or we deal with total bullshit here. It’s early to have capital at the age of 20-25 to start being a value investor, who holds positions for 10+ years. Utter nonsense!
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KC
KC@chilltechbruh·
@NavilaSky @alc2022 Lot of us did. Though back then so much fud that it was going to die. Amd and nvda
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Antonio Linares
Antonio Linares@alc2022·
went long $amd at $4.2 because I understood compute early $pltr at $7 because I understood AI early this is bigger peptides are the tip of the spear then it's epigenetic tuning > gene editing > cell therapy I prepared a presentation with everything you need to know
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Nope@NavilaSky·
Your first comment pretty directly states, slimming the workforce is not necessarily due to AI. It has all to do with AI. I do not know if you work in a bank/ have done previously, or the role you possessed but large portions of the work will become irrelevant and automated by AI. There is no question about it and parts of it has already been realised.
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Nope
Nope@NavilaSky·
@bareemil00 @AndreasSteno @joveha @thorborg Dude, it is job redundancies due to AI. Meaning the jobs won’t be repossessed.. These changes have already been effectuated in IT in Nordea 1st of February this year. And then they extend it even further now.
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Emil
Emil@bareemil00·
@AndreasSteno @joveha @thorborg Har aldrig postuleret at have drevet en virksomhed. Men at sige man afskeder grundet AI gevinster, betyder ikke de realiseres. Altså fordi boyband segmentet herinde skriger “AI AI AI”, så tror jeg bare vi andre observere det lidt mere nøgternt. :)
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Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
Thoughts on Nynomic ($M7U) at €145M MC: Caution: this is a numbers-heavy post where I walk through some of my modelling. No one’s really covered this on X since Nynomic doesn’t disclose subsidiary rev/margins. TLDR: Nynomic is very cheap at current 1.3x multiples vs metrology peers like $ONTO (10.7x) & $CAMT (13.8x). For a v. quick summary of the bull thesis: - Asymmetric exposure to photonics supercycle via their LayTec subsidiary - chokepoint in InP/GaN MOCVD via $AIXA ramp - $AIXA is 80–90% of global MOCVD Onto financials… -> By triangulating data points, I get to ~€15M revenue for LayTec in FY25: LayTec has ~800 installed reactors globally (based on customer list + historical $AIXA shipments + 25 years of sales) - New-reactor ASP: €95k / reactor - New reactors attached/yr (global MOCVD share, $AIXA + part of $VECO): ~100 units - New sensor revenue: 100 × €95k = ~€9.5M/yr - Service/software renewals: ~10–12% of installed base annually at €20–30k each = ~€1.5–3M/yr - Etch endpoint: ~€1–3M/yr -> Looking fwd to 2026: $AIXA Q126 orders were €171M at >65% opto mix. Call it €111M of opto equipment orders in a single quarter. If $AIXA’s FY26 opto revenue runs at ~€350M (conservative 62.5% of the €560M guide), and LayTec attaches at conservative 3–4% of reactor value on new orders: - That implies €10–14M of incremental LayTec revenue over the 2027–2028 recognition window. - So LayTec could reach €22–28M in FY27 layered on top of the ~€15M base I walked through above. Imo, the stock is starting to price in that inflection now. And consequently gives Nynomic a 1.3x EV/Sales multiple. That is very cheap against metrology pure-plays but fair against companies like Jenoptik who deal w/ photonics in Europe also. Imo, Metrology names would be a better/conservative comparison since the Nynomic group is ~80% photonics + ~20% metrology which acts as a drag on the financials. So I ultimately see Nynomic re-rating towards metrology names at least, like $ONTO/ $CAMT who have multiples of 10.7x & 13.8x. Especially if LayTec proves materially higher-growth and higher-margin than the wider Nynomic group. -> I currently hold a position in Nynomic.
Paradis Labs tweet media
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Nope@NavilaSky·
@bigblvr @mikealfred @amitisinvesting No it is not. Nobody have delivered the promised lands yet, regardless of NBIS or IREN. So if that is your stands you are bearish the whole sector..
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
so… the debate is over right? $NBIS is the best neocloud out there? is it still even a question or has Nebius officially won? stellar mgmt, multiple equity stakes in diverse businesses, scooping up deal after deal… i trimmed some at $105 to derisk and buy more $NVDA, letting the rest of my position ride although the CCs on this even for $200 are very attractive it does feel overbought here (i would not buy at $150) but it is now in price discovery so anything goes i still don’t love the biz model of the neoclouds with unlimited dilution + no profitability but $NBIS does seem to be differentiating themselves with ambitions to be a hyperscaler cloud vs just a neocloud debate is done? are they the single best one out of the entire batch of neoclouds? +8%
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Nope@NavilaSky·
@Globalflows I am really curious as to what your price target is here. Your conviction to the stock is really convincing! Saw Andy trash you for it, but so far you have proven him wrong! 🫡
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Nope@NavilaSky·
Solid! but just to state the obvious here, there is a lot better short term trades related to AI right now. I would still long NBIS, but there are plenty of underexposed companies related to AI supply line which have and will keep benefiting over the next 12 months more exponentially than NBIS.
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DVB
DVB@DeepValueBagger·
My wife still had decent amount of $IREN shares. I finally grabbed her phone today and sold everything for her and switched to $NBIS. It had to be done. I can't sleep well knowing the risks. We switched about 2/3 of it a few weeks ago.
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DVB
DVB@DeepValueBagger·
CEO of $iren is posting about a faulty generator in Texas, while sitting in a yacht in Sydney (probably). In all seriousness though, I'm uneasy about CEO, a finance one, having to try be "involved" in a trivial matter in a large business... Obviously he cant do anything 2500 miles away. Doesn't he have capable people who can do the job? Are there more important things he should be doing? It is the same uneasy that he has to explain on every earning call how valuable his power asset is. Less talk, more action. It's amateur hour.
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Nope@NavilaSky·
@Merridew__ They most likely wait for the red baboon to start that show, and then they have the excuse to continue on that path.
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