Dan
76 posts





7 years ago








my AI predictions for 2025: - at least one lab will declare AGI and mentions ASI - Q1: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, META, Qwen and Mistral model fiesta ( it will be heaven ) - agents / computer use takes off - release of Claude 4, Gemini 3, GPT-5, Grok 4 (or whatever they call their giant ~5-20 trillion parameter models) - release of o3, o4, and o5 - open-source replication of o3 - the Frontier Math benchmark will be mostly solved (>80%) - SWE-bench will be solved (>90%) - ARC-AGI 2 will be mostly solved (>80%) within 9 months of it's release - 10+ million context length models my wishful thinking: Someone (Anthropic) figures out efficient test-time-training without catastrophic forgetting using mech interp - this will be the next paradigm for 2026 and lead to superintelligence





















