Paul
218 posts
🚨 HOLY CRAP! In front of MILLIONS of Americans President Trump exposes Barack Hussein Obama for giving Iran cash used to terrorize the world
"Hussein Obama gave them $1.7 billion in cash, green, green cash! Took it out of banks from Virginia, D.C., and Maryland."
"All the cash they had flew it by airplanes in an attempt to buy their respect and loyalty, but it didn't work."
"They LAUGHED at our President and went on with their mission to have a nuclear bomb!"
"His Iran deal would have led to a colossal arsenal of massive nuclear weapons for Iran, and they would have had them years ago, and they would have used them, would have been a different world."
Traitor!
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In case we were wondering what happened tonight. $SPY $QQQ @BarronTNews_
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
Perfect. Now get everyone to panic buy into the markets before my yuuuuge announcement tonight and a long weekend! Then my son's @BarronTNews_ puts should print on the announcement of boots on the ground.
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@VolSignals @RubiconTrading @oppugnantone If the data had real edge, you wouldn’t sell it. You would raise money and build a fund around it.
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@RubiconTrading @oppugnantone the difference is that all forms of TA are making educated guesses using priors
this, is not that- and the difference when properly integrated is career-making
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Wow.. so far, the futures action overnight is almost exactly as prescribed in our charm data in VS3D
I almost hate when it's this good because it risks anchoring you to unrealistic expectations
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I've been using it so long (mainly on the weekly timeframe) that I've almost forgotten...I think I read a study 20 years ago when I was a PM working in the Principal Strategies group of a large bank that sucessfully backtested the 22/55 EMA for SPX (weekly timeframe) as a trend-following strategy. It's of course not going to diverge significantly from 21/50 but I think it smoothes it out a bit.
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Took a starter position in $PLTR puts: EMA 22/55 already in a bear trend and rejecting recent attempt to cross up. This is also a hedge/bet on Republicans losing the mid-term elections. In my view, Dems will go after this company full throttle if they control Congress (think it's one of the most direct ways to "short" the current admin). *NFA
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Trust the process!
Trust the model!
Trust @OptionsDepth
$SPX $SPY $VIX
Ivan@iV_trader
At some point we roll over today.. Im in shorts not 0dte Now 6590 $SPX
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@options_insight Completely disagree with you. To a plumber everything looks like a nail.
I trade price action ONLY. Why? Because I know for a fact, (my late son), was a programmer who worked on a few systems (algos) built on pivot points.
That's real edge.
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You don't find trades by scrolling charts and buying what looks good.
Layer one: a technical indicator showing an extreme. RSI oversold, price at a Bollinger Band, some measurable signal that says "pay attention here."
Layer two: check what the options market is doing. Is vol rising or falling into the move? Vol rising into a selloff means fear is real. Vol falling into a selloff means smart money isn't panicking.
Layer three: check skew. Is put skew still super bid, or is it pivoting? If skew is relaxing while vol compresses at a technical extreme, you have three independent confirmations.
Price alone tells you nothing about positioning. And positioning is what determines whether a level holds or breaks.
Conviction goes up when more of these layers align. You can express views at any conviction level, but you size up when all three confirm. Fewer confirmations = smaller position or no trade at all.
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On the indexes, as long as they are below key moving averages, I'm looking to short and move higher..
$SPY
@RedDogT3
@RealSimpleAriel
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hey @RealSimpleAriel $SOLS , looks like $TEM flat base breakout (about to) you took a think a year ago.
thoughts.
Could trigger tomorrow.($76.94)
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@RealSimpleAriel Took some trims today on my names $vlo , $eog and $fang. And added some $upro off the vwap..
I still don’t see any setup, other than a squeeze
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Yesterday things were getting pretty washed out looking at breadth, and today 633 names in my universe were up 4% or more!! 🚀🚀
Reason #84 why you DO NOT short in the hole!
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
Breadth in my universe of stocks is really washing out. $SPY $QQQ I wouldn't be thinking fresh shorts here. Rally into declining moving averages first and then a possible low risk spot for new positions. Especially if the conflict with Iran has not been resolved!
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@RealSimpleAriel Or if we do the opposite of yesterday.. (base for 3hours then broke down). Today, want to see the same but reverse.. for any longs from me..
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And a good reminder why we DO NOT chase a gap up while we trade under supply! $QQQ $SPY
Now if we set and intraday low, and reclaim VWAP, I might consider a long.
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
If you want to play a possible bounce tomorrow. - You wait for the morning profit taking - Let the market set an intraday low from the gap up - Play the reclaim of VWAP - Size properly - Set stop at LOD DEFINITELY do not chase the opening print. Even if that works tomorrow; it has NOT been working for a few weeks. and buying into supply below the 200sma is almost always fools gold. Just look at todays action.
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And I learned and gain confidence to short into decline EMA from studying your trades. @RealSimpleAriel .
Reviewing your shorts , I use to say, “this dude is nuts”, standing in front of a train. Until I did the first, then the second.
Thank you.
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
If anyone tells you that in order to be successful in trading you need to make some unknown discovery on your own... This is a lie!! - I learned about volatility contraction and progressive exposure from Mark. @markminervini. - I learned about momentum bursts and Episodic pivots from Pradeep @PradeepBonde - I learned about the importance of creating a model book for myself with 100s of past examples. As well as the idea of focusing on higher ADR stocks from Kristjan @Qullamaggie - I learned about stage analysis from Stan @StanWeinstein13 - I learned how to read and interpret COT data from Jason @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt - I learned the right side of the V concept and proper bet sizing on A+ opportunities from Lance @TheOneLanceB - I learned to think a little more contrarian from watching @TheShortBear - I learned about the flat base breakout and value in leading groups from @PatrickWalker56 - I learned about the HVC/HVE edge from @AmeetRai - I learned about trading more aggressively during high momentum periods from @DanZanger - I learned about the Undercut and rally or Double top short sale setups from Gil Morales @gilmoandco - I learned how to think about creating and implementing systems from @Peoplewish - I learned the failed follow through setup on an intraday timeframe from @InvestorsLive - I learned about the importance of prior day channels from @danshep55 - I learned about support and resistance gaps for entries from @NickDrendel - I learned about using the 50sma as a guide to measure extensions from @jfsrev - I learned about creating a daily trading plan from Marcel Link. - I learned about the CANSLIM methodology from Bill O'neal I'm sure there are many I missed but the point is: Trading knowledge is passed down from one generation to the next. But it is up to us, the trader, to implement what we have learned in a safe manner while we put together all the pieces for ourself. We live in a time where you DO NOT need to make up some magical elixir for trading in order to be successful. All the people mentioned above have found an exploitable edge in the market, and like myself relentlessly execute that edge over and over. I am personally grateful for all of the educators I've had along my journey; which is part of the reason I so willingly share any bit of knowledge I acquire along the way. The same way they all graciously imparted knowledge on me.
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@Wordsofrizdom I trade expansions after compression. In simple terms. I’m am pullback trader.
Price expands—low volume pullback to support. - price defended. (I buy). With the expectation of range expansion.
That’s it. And I do it over and over.
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U.S. Investing Champion, Mario Stamatoudis doesn’t believe in “finding new setups”
He believes in understanding why they work.
“Why breakouts worked for 100+ years?”
Most traders chase patterns, but never question the logic behind them.
Breakouts. Pullbacks. Gaps.
They’re not random. They exist because of two forces that never change:
Structure and behavior.
And when those two align, That’s where real opportunities form.
But here’s where most traders get it wrong:
They memorize setups,
Without ever understanding the mechanism behind them.
So when conditions shift — they’re lost.
Because they were trading patterns, not principles.
Which brings us to the real test:
Do you actually understand why your setup works... Or are you just hoping it keeps working?
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The news is bad, the charts are bad, sentiment is bad, everything is bad.
Nobody knows when we’ll bottom but what we do know is that the market won’t wait for positive headlines, great sentiment, and joyful news flow to bottom.
Whether it’s 2018, 2020, 2022, or 2025, the notable “recent” market pullbacks didn’t wait for the “all clear” before resuming higher.
2018: Trade war tensions still high.
2020: COVID still relatively unknown.
2022: Inflation/rates still climbing, recession fears.
2025: U.S. and China tension still at highs, despite the tariff pause.
Market will bottom before sentiment improves.
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I think there’s a big misconception when it comes to large market moves. Many people take a theoretical view that “the market prices everything in.” But if you look at history, you’ll see that some of the largest market declines have come well after the catalyst was already widely known.
1.COVID-19: It’s called COVID-19 because it was identified in 2019. Yet markets didn’t fully digest the ramifications until mid-March, when economies were already shutting down.
2.GFC: Before the major collapse in Q3 and Q4 of 2008, it was already known in 2007 that cracks were forming. There were multiple warnings pointing to a potential mortgage crisis. Credit began to slowly reprice, and then it all unraveled at once.
3.Volmageddon: Prior to the February 2018 blowout, it was widely known among derivatives traders that these ETPs could fail. Portfolio managers were openly arguing with issuers at major derivatives conferences.
4.“Liberation Day”: Weeks before Trump announced tariffs, the market was aware he had a plan in place. In fact, markets initially rallied a few percent within seconds of the announcement, then went on to decline 20%.
My point is that there’s a cognitive bias that leads people to believe the market is all-knowing, smarter than everyone, and always prices everything in. But during major volatility events, it’s often only at the very end that the market fully accepts the fear. This is likely because humans naturally are optimistic creatures. It’s embedded into our DNA.
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@RealSimpleAriel , you’re close to stopping out on $PLTR , remember I’m long off the reclaim and youre short from the 100day, I think.
Why I had conviction? Look at the volume in the base.. up on high volume, down on low volume. Not teaching you something you don’t know.
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@RealSimpleAriel Yes, but market is forward looking. If fund managers believe the president “TACO’D” then there is no need to buy downside protection. It’s similar to what happened in April 25. The next few days will be telling, if stocks starts to firm up and set ups will emerge.
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PSA to all the Fintwit Geopol experts:
War does not end when the aggressor says they are done attacking.
War ends when the attacked stop launching missiles.
I thought that was common knowledge, but apparently not on X.
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@HashmiMohi @TheFigen_ Sounds like you’ve been through a lot. I was just joking around, not trying to debate this. Take care.
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Paul, impressive how you missed the point entirely. These aren't "clinical case studies" pulled from thin air. I learned the malignant narcissist patterns the hard way. I can spot the love-bombing phase and the coming burn-and-reset cycle a mile away now.
If there was any way to truly tax these narcissistic abusers for destroying lives, I'd tear them apart bit by bit, every single day. The next day I'd try to patch the pieces back together, exactly like they did to the existence of their victims. Then I'd parade them to the public to show off the "loyal victim" I created by hand tearing them into small pieces and joining them back up, while getting applause from my flying monkeys, even though pus is flowing live from the victim's wounds.
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