
Neuby
6.9K posts

Neuby
@NeubyNdfb
☘️ Notre Dame Football 🏈 Yankees ⚾️ Golf ⛳️ and 🇺🇸 Tesla 🚘 $TSLA💸🧷🧷
Katılım Temmuz 2014
560 Takip Edilen150 Takipçiler

@CattardSlim What are they gonna do stay there until he returns 3 days later? Lmao
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@P_I_Y_U_S_H_ @BullTheoryio So they're overvalued because you say they're overvalued? lmao
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@BullTheoryio All semiconductor, chip based companies are overvalued because of AI. Though the fall is because of the strike, it impacts the sentiments. Such kind of a day fall in US market will wipe out all the overvalued companies.
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@NeubyNdfb Yep, demand seems to be dropping, and the stock is reflecting that
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@yxinsights $MU is $100 too expensive, it'll range for some time until new catalyst (maybe earnings).
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Micron $MU is showing a blow-off top that doesn't seem to stop!
Here is the crazy part.
It's pretty fairly valued given the structural shortage of memory chips.
If we use a 5-year median multiple of 4.5x NTM EV/ Sales, the price target is $669.
(5 years, because it accounts for more than just one upcycle that we experience today)
This target will assume a 178% revenue growth rate but will see its valuation multiple fall by 2/3.
To me, $669 is a fairly conservative number and probably represents a floor.
It is based on the assumption that this time is no different to the previous cycles.
However, if memory indeed has seen a paradigm shift in permanent demand this AI revolution, we could attach a higher price multiple to MU.
On the aggressive end, MU can re-rate to 7.8x EV/Sales (1.5 sigma above the past 5-year mean), implying a $ 1,145 price, or a 43% gain.
This is highlighted at the top of our green target zone.

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@ArikCR23 $MU ... That stock is backing up.... and getting ready for the next attempt above $800.... the next time.... is the charm
GIF
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@thekriskay no, its MM killing the millions of open calls. Then they'll rip it next week
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@zcbel31 @MathiasTheus @bucketshopcap Bookmarked this, I'll come back and laugh at you in a week or two when we cross 900
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@MathiasTheus @NeubyNdfb @bucketshopcap Oh really? Guess, all of the hyperscalers had contracts with Micron pre-bottleneck that got torn up. Price is 100% not locked in for 3-5 years in the future. Lmao just stop
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$MU is literally free money IMO and hilarious that anyone would own literally any stock over having every available free $ in $MU.
Evergreen@evrgn11112231
Still true, literally free money IMO and hilarious that anyone would own literally any stock over having every available free $ in $META.
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@MathiasTheus @NeubyNdfb @bucketshopcap Well, now look at who knows the future! I promise you, it will NOT play out that way.
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@zcbel31 @MathiasTheus @bucketshopcap ah yes you know it all, you know when the top is, you are all knowing
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@MathiasTheus @NeubyNdfb @bucketshopcap I know that history repeats itself and investors shrieking about a new paradigm always get hosed in the end
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@Yankee_Dehalvi @BenBSP @WallStreetMav @wallstreetbets @WallStreetApes Tutes getting pushed around by MMs, pathetic
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$MU last momentum line to cross $802.68!! Then 812.92 818 833 861 🧐🧐🔥🔥 @WallStreetMav @wallstreetbets @WallStreetApes
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@NeubyNdfb @bucketshopcap Who said I missed it? I made six figures on it but I’ve sold 70% of my position in the past two weeks. I like to keep my money you see
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@zcbel31 @bucketshopcap lol I made so much money on mu, sucks you missed it
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@bucketshopcap lol so many people are going to lose all the money they made on $MU
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China’s Yangtze Memory will submit its IPO application in China next month now that its expansion into DRAM has been greenlit by Beijing amid the Memory Supercycle, media report, adding its new Wuhan Fab (Phase 3) dedicated to LPDDR DRAM will be ready for production by end-2026. The listing is expected either on the Shanghai Star Market or in Hong Kong, valuation RMB 160 billion to 300 billion (US$23.6B to $44.2B). YMTC currently competes in the NAND Flash memory market. $SSNLF $HXSCL $MU $SNDK #Kioxia digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwn…
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Neuby retweetledi

Krishna Rao is the CFO of Anthropic, and this is his first podcast appearance.
He joined the company two years ago when run-rate revenue was about $250M. Today it is $30B. He has helped raise ~$75B and is responsible for the procurement and allocation of compute.
I feel lucky we get to hear what it is like to sit inside a company this consequential at a moment this pivotal.
We discuss:
- The cone of uncertainty
- How he allocates compute across Trainium, TPUs, and GPUs
- What investors misunderstand about model companies
- Why the returns to frontier intelligence keep rising
- Platform vs application and where Anthropic builds its own products
- How Anthropic uses Claude internally
I have asked my closing question about the kindest thing more than 500 times. Krishna's answer is one I have never heard before.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:38 The Compute Canvas
6:51 The "Cone of Uncertainty"
11:58 Why the Returns to Frontier Intelligence Are So High
16:45 Recursive Self-Improvement
20:20 Scaling Laws
23:30 Sourcing $100 Billion in Compute
28:05 Platform vs. Application Strategy
32:52 Pricing Dynamics
38:48 How Anthropic’s Finance Team Uses Claude
43:24 Raising Capital & Overcoming Investor Skepticism
52:32 Public Perception, Risks, and Government Regulation
57:25 Mythos Release
1:12:33 What Could Derail the AI Revolution?
1:13:47 Biotech and Healthcare
1:15:31 The Kindest Thing
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@TantalumRecycle @TradexWhisperer all good, ill ride this hoe to 1200 till then
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@TradexWhisperer The memory market will stabilize in 2027 — Nvidia is a MONOPOLY
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@stckpkr7000 explain to me how this is same as it ever was? Just curious to hear your explanation?
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A must read for those who are silly enough to think cyclicality are over for $MU and $SNDK. The low pe silliness is also discussed. They will both top with single digit pe radios. Same as it ever was.
x.com/bboczeng/statu…
勃勃OC@bboczeng
总结一下 herman 关于币圈的看法: 1. 所有山寨币都会归零,没有任何价值 2. 只看好btc,但他不是btc maxima,btc只是作为股票资产的一种分散配置。自己只在6-7万以下买过btc,超过这个价格从没买过 3. 币圈是一个highly manipulated market,散户想要持有必须得按年计算 4. 币安是个大赌场,hyperliquid这种链上交易所则是路边摊。hyperliquid很坏,下单要慢600ms,而且如果交易对他有利就成交,对你有利就交易失败;并且任何一笔交易他们都去币安对冲 5. 稳定币本质上是政策套利,一个是不分红所以不受sec监管,但自己拿走分红;第二个是牌照价值,也就是政策价值。不会在crcl上长期投资,不如去买semi 6. coinbase收走50%的crcl利润,但币安更坏,会收掉99%的稳定币利润,
Hamilton, VA 🇺🇸 English








