New Blood Pop
8.8K posts

New Blood Pop
@NewBloodPop
Brad Novak - Geek, Artist, Public Health Physician, Investor…
Auckland, New Zealand Katılım Temmuz 2021
2.3K Takip Edilen1.7K Takipçiler

Not just Mickey & Minnie Iconics going up! All Disney Lorcana Fabled Iconics & Enchanted have rocketed in past 3 months, up +35%!
Top Gainers
Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Pilot 153%
Winnie the Pooh, Hunny Wizard 109%
Mulan, Considerate Diplomat 99%
TCGPlayer: partner.tcgplayer.com/B5z7Lq



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Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.
Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:
Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."
He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.
Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.
BUT IT DIDN'T
Those promises are now officially broken.
The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.
Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.
Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.
But that's not even the worst part.
Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.
What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.
How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.
Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:
Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?
WRONG
Dig into the actual filing:
The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."
They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.
GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.
Let me put that in perspective:
3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.
All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...
3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.
So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.
The math doesn't work.
They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.
The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:
Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).
They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.
Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.
Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.
And here's what really kills the bull case...
The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:
Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.
That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.
And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.
Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.
Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.
The stock is $387.
So what exactly are you paying for?
You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.
I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.
And I am telling you:
Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.
THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC
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So let me get this right…
$RKLB does two 100% successful launches back to back one HASTE for DOW and one for JAXA and the stock goes down 🤔 WTH 🤦🏻♂️ others do one launch a year and the stock doubles.
Rocket Lab@RocketLab
MISSION SUCCESS! Payload deployment confirmed for "Kakushin Rising" on our 87th Electron launch. Congratulations @JAXA_en and welcome to orbit once again 🛰️
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Alien is a top 5 enchanted art all time. No doubt about it. Also I LOVE to see other Disney accounts boosting Lorcana!!
Disney Parks@DisneyParks
A new Disney Lorcana set, Wilds Unknown, is coming soon and here's your first look at two of its cards ✨ di.sn/6019B6Ak1f
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Saying this again: SO MANY DUOS!
Minnie & Mickey = nailed it
Lady & Tramp
Chip ‘n Dale
Buzz & Woody
Anna & Elsa
Could even go:
Hades & Herc
Ariel & Ursula
Maleficent & Aurora
Mufasa & Scar
Citizens of Lorcana@coflorcana
@FerdaFangorn Woody and Buzz were right there.
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#Peace is not something we must invent: it is something we must embrace by accepting our neighbor as a brother or sister. We do not choose our brothers and sisters: we must simply accept one another! We are one family, inhabiting the same home: this wonderful planet that ancient cultures have cared for over millennia. #ApostolicJourney #Cameroon
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@limitedteddy_ In Auckland, very variable. Sometimes only 2 of us. But can get up to 10. Riftbound lured many people away…
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@rebekahquests @lorcanaheat Whispers iconics should have been Ariel and Flounder as a pair … would have been amazing
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@lorcanaheat I know for me if they were Buzz and Woody, I wouldn't care about the Iconics this set at all
but MERIDA?? I'm hooked
Whispers? didn't care a lick about Hades. But ARIEL??? YES PLS
they want to appeal to all people - give the most people something to chase
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@Saucekayx @r_m_bx Look at the picture… closely
2 arrows Im one target then 1 arrow in the second
Thematically perfect
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@Saucekayx @r_m_bx The first 2 arrows are hitting the first target
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@xaigorgo I think there’s been significant brand damage for sure…
But I don’t think a different CEO would have been able to transition to full autonomy…
I’m hopefully Elon can do it as a lot if people don’t want to actually purchase a Tesla now… no matter how good the tech.
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@NewBloodPop Yeap, Tesla would have been better off having a different CEO, executing the original vision.
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Even though the “predictions” were very optimistic, $TSLA looked like it would have been very closed. Unfortunately, Elon lost his way, and now the predictions look like a joke when compared to the reality.
The crazy part of it is that the stock price remains so high, even though all fundamentals are broken.
Christopher Bloomstran@ChrisBloomstran
ARK Invest published its 2021 “research” report on Tesla, thoughtfully estimating metrics on where the car company would be in five years. The results are in. Turns out Cathie & Co were just a tad bit optimistic in their forecasting skill. That was sarcasm. The scorecard: 1/
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Rocket Lab Stock Has Quadrupled. Why It Was Just Upgraded to Buy. - Barron's $RKLB barrons.com/articles/rocke…
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okay so
who actually thinks Trump is getting ready to attack energy infrastructure on Tuesday?
if he does...not sure how that won't increase oil prices and create more volatility
if he doesn't and extends the deadline...markets probably would like it
WSJ reporting that the admin is getting targets ready for an attack, but then you have Trump saying negotiations are going very well this morning
you either buy if you think there's a TACO or stay on the sidelines if you think he might actually attack...but man this has nothing to do with fundamentals anymore, it's all just following headlines
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