New Deal Distillery & Bottle Shop

Think about how bad this is. The best ran company on earth. That got a custom made exemption for its product category from the tariffs. That already has full alternative supply chains up and running in India and Vietnam. That has months of inventory ready to go. That company just told you they’re going to lose $1B per quarter from these tariffs. *And*, the CEO warned that this problem is going to get a lot worse in future quarters. So how bad do you think it’s going to get for the average American business (and its employees)? Answer honestly.

I can answer this question. Here's how these tariffs can affect the average American. 🧵

The fact that they’re trying to fight the very obvious impacts here makes you think markets are right to believe they’re going to capitulate once consumers feel the impact.

🚨🚨PROBLEM🚨🚨 This is the Port of Seattle and the container yard. Note the image on the right. This is the 4th busiest port in the nation. Anyone who has spent time in Seattle can tell you that these docks are always PACKED and the Puget Sound is usually overrun with waiting cargo vessels. There are presently ZERO cargo ships docked or en route. There are ZERO containers in the yard, and there are ZERO trucks to haul cargo. Remember what I told all of you last November about stocking up on stuff and arbitraging it later once the shelves were emptied? Well...we're just about there. Even if this global trade war is ended tomorrow, it will take at least 7-9 months to normalize supply chains and have available product again. And that's if everybody calls it off immediately. 40% of cargo vessels leaving China today (vessels that were already paid to make the journey, whether there is a reason to or not) are traveling completely empty. Shipping container volume is down 80%. The "this is what I voted for" people are about to learn what exactly that is. For you, the Cult of the Cavebaby, all I'll say is this: It wouldn't be the worst idea right now to go through your entire house and identify anything it is you feel you need but don't yet have, anything you have that might be on its last legs and in need of future repair or replacement, or things you feel you won't be able to procure going forward because everything is categorized as "backordered - indefinite". The storm is coming.

I was at a fundraiser tonight for the local hospital. Spoke with dozens of business owners, many had different stories about how tariffs are impacting their business: 1 - Logistics exec: "One of our big box customers has stopped taking new imports from China altogether." 2 - Community banker: "We are requiring all home builders to bring more equity due to higher anticipated costs. This will have a big impact on new home builds later in the year." 3 - Wholesale distributor: "Overseas suppliers have changed payment terms, requiring payment up front. They've had so many US orders refuse to take delivery due to tariffs, now they view US customers as a credit risk." 4 - Toy retailer: "A large number of our domestic suppliers have cancelled all incoming containers and are not placing new orders until they get some direction, which will impact this coming holiday season. Toys will be in short supply all over the country." 5 - Staffing in manufacturing: "We had a lot of momentum coming in this year. Our manufacturing clients have mostly paused all new placements. We are talking hundreds of would-be jobs that have disappeared." 6 - Investment banker: "We had several deals in process that have stalled, including one large ($300M+) transaction that fell apart literally on the day of closing. The private equity fund got cold feet." 7 - Hospital exec: "We have a few months of inventory of PPE available. We can't pass on price increases, because most of our prices are fixed with the carriers. We aren't placing orders for anything that comes from China."