Newmoon Capital

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THAI SHIP PASSED THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IRAN'S TASNIM SAYS

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Al-Ansari: “Some are benefiting from talk of disputes that don’t exist between the parties in order to undermine efforts to reach a ceasefire. We condemn and reject any attacks targeting energy facilities in Qatar and the region, they are vital for serving citizens and must be protected from any threat.”

BREAKING: Iran’s leadership has reportedly signaled openness to a deal with the U.S., according to Israeli media. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi allegedly told Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that the outreach had the “consent and blessing” of Mojtaba Khamenei.

SAUDI ARABIA HAS GRANTED A 30-DAY EXEMPTION FROM LICENSE REQUIREMENTS TO SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE PERSIAN GULF, ALLOWING SMOOTHER NAVIGATION WITHOUT THE NEED FOR A LICENSE DURING THIS PERIOD.

@realKunalAShah Thats right. Gosh. Cant believe focus on wind

Narrative is flipped now.

The UN has not said a word btw.

Reminder of Iran’s losses in the last 2 yrs: - Hamas: Threat neutralized - Hizbollah: Nasrallah gone, zero strategic deterrence leverage - Houthis: Significantly degraded - Syria: wiped off of their “forward defense” calculus - “Unification of fronts” dream: gone Map: Le Monde

@realKunalAShah Yea I mean, the strait is "effectively" open. I still think the Saudi and whoever are showing they are entering the war to pressure Iran into a deal.

@NewmoonCap The Israelis should be careful in escalating without US approval. They are the most essential ally- not just for now but what if there is an issue with Saudi or emiratis or turkey in the future or if the Iranian regime builds back up in a decade….

Far from being over as I predicted- there will be no agreement between the US and Iran - particularly as the Israelis want to finish the job, and as I predicted we are likely to see heavy involvement from the Saudis and Emiratis militarily now as well. Israeli special forces could be deployed, and I also see continued decapitation style events- with high likelihood that of continued strikes on military assets that remain in Iran’s arsenal.

Pressure move for Iran to accept a deal

Q: "Do you think the Ayatollah prefers his life under Obama or under Trump?" Ex-DHS Obama donor Miles Taylor: "The Ayahtolla's dead." Bingo. You heard it here first, folks! 😉

Many people are boycotting me after i said that children should not be exposed to movies or shows featuring LGBTQ themes. I argued that children should be raised according to “traditional values” and that adults should simply allow kids to enjoy their childhood as children.

The Nice Attack = Muslim The Paris Attacks = Muslims The Shoe Bomber = Muslim The Orlando attack = Muslim The Beltway Snipers = Muslims The Fort Hood Shooter = Muslim The Underwear Bomber = Muslim The Westminster Attack = Muslim The 2005 Bali Bombings = Muslims The murder of Lee Rigby = Muslims The U.S.S. Cole Bombers = Muslims The London Bridge Attack = Muslims The Madrid Train Bombers = Muslims The Charlie Hebdo Attacks = Muslims The San Bernardino Attacks = Muslims The Surabaya bombings = Muslims The Minnesota Mall stabbings = Muslim The 7/7 bombers = Muslims The Moscow Theatre Attackers = Muslims The Boston Marathon Bombers = Muslims The Ankara Airport Attack = Muslims The Manchester Arena bombing = Muslim The Pan-Am #103 Bombers = Muslims The Iranian Embassy Takeover = Muslims The Air France Hijackers = Muslims The 2002 Bali Nightclub = Muslims The Batta Meena Attacks = Muslims The Beirut Embassy bombers = Muslims The Libyan U.S. Embassy Attack = Muslims The Yazidi Massacre of 2014 = Muslims The Beheading of French priest = Muslims The Buenos Aires bombers = Muslims The Israeli Olympic Team = Muslims The Kenyan U.S Embassy = Muslims The Khobar Towers Bombers = Muslims The Beirut Marine bombers = Muslims The Besian School Attackers = Muslims The First WTC bombers = Muslims The Beheading of Daniel Pearl = Muslims The Achille Lauro Hijackers = Muslims The Bombay Attackers = Muslims The 9/11 hijackers = Muslims The Sydney Bondi beach = Muslims

Slovakia passes law to BAN Islam from being registered as a religion. Slovakia has passed a law which will effectively ban Islam from gaining official status as a religion, in the latest signs of a growing anti-Muslim sentiment across Europe. - @Alinavisooo

Looking for a headline that has it all?

@compoundpapi LOL. Tell me you have pricing power without telling me you have pricing power

Took so much flak for this call over the weekend. It’s 100% the right move. Mission accomplished. If Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait after the bombing stops, the world will see them for exactly what they are. A bunch of terrorists trying to hold the global economy hostage. SPR release and other flows (pipelines, floating storage, etc) buys 40 days for oil markets. Gas is more fragile though.

Major notes from the weekend on Iran: 1) Combined Force strikes started hitting IRGC Ground Forces units in the Kurdish regions. 2) We have confirmed that IRGC members are at least two cycles behind on pay. 3) *Coincidentally,* I'm sure, the IRGC Ground Forces Commander went on a tour visiting these forces. In combination, these three notes indicate a high risk of desertion throughout the IRGC. 4) Separately, we have the attack on Diego Garcia that, frankly, justifies the war in and of itself. The base itself isn't terribly significant, its not that "Iran can get Diego Garcia! We have to go to war!" The issue is that Iran constantly lies about everything to do with its nuclear program. Taqiyya. They've issued fatwas against nuclear weapons, then simultaneously enrich uranium to levels only usable in weapons while developing long-range ballistic missiles. "Its for medical purposes!" No, it wasn't, and it couldn't be. Uranium enriched to this degree has no medical uses. "Its for self-defense!" Then why were you hiding a long range ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to London? The fact they were developing these weapons while consistently lying about it, in the face of all the world being united against their acquisition of the weapons, combined with all of their past acts of terrorism and piracy, absolutely justifies this war. 5) On Negotiations: These are being played very close to the chest, but here's what I've been able to gather... Witkoff and Kushner are keeping lines of communication open with non-IRGC elements of the Iranian State—if I had to guess, I'd expect officials within the Republican Government. If not Pezeshkian himself, then probably people with access to him. It seems abundantly clear that the situation in Iran is at this point A Tale of Two Cities. One is an IRGC-Cleric alliance propping up the corpse of the Velayat-e Faqih. The other is the Republican-Reform alliance propping up the still in-tact organs of state outside of the IRGC's control. We are almost certainly negotiating with one of these 'cities,' and not the other. This is what I expected would be the prelude to final resolution. The existing power structures in Iran will continue to pull support away from, and rallying support against, the IRGC. At this point, it appears the plan is to reach a pre-negotiated settlement with the Republican-Reform Government while hammering the IRGC on all available fronts and enabling a fairly smooth transition of power. Mass uprising is probably now the backup plan, with total dismantling of Iran's infrastructure the backup to the backup plan.