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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social

nickjbrumfield.bsky.social

@NickJBrumfield

No longer super active on Twitter, can't access DMs here; Catch me on Bluesky | Researcher on #Yemen

DC / Mid-Ohio Valley Katılım Temmuz 2017
2.4K Takip Edilen4K Takipçiler
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Did this episode a few weeks back circa 3 December, but in light of the Israeli airstrikes on Yemen, Houthi missile attack on a Tel Aviv park, and the US friendly fire incident last week, a lot of what we talk about is unfortunately more relevant!
Dr. Shubhda Chaudhary@ShubhdaC

🚨 Episode 67 of @ME_InsightHub #Houthi missile strike on #TelAviv – Israel retaliates. What does this escalating conflict mean for #Redsea security and regional stability? 🔹 Featuring Nicholas Brumfield – @NickJBrumfield WATCH: youtu.be/ivAKWbu5bzg

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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
It'd be grimly funny if MBS actually is urging the US to keep attacking, but only because he knows KSA's geography means it's less vulnerable to the kind of reputational risk from attacks than the UAE and wants Iran to keep spamming the UAE so Dubai companies will move to Riyadh
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
This is one of those random events in war that could have a lot of ripple effects
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

Sailors onboard the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), which is entering its tenth month of deployment, battled flames onboard the aircraft carrier last week for over 30 hours, after a small fire that started in the ship’s main laundry area, spread through ventilation to several other areas of the ship, including multiple berthings, with more than 600 sailors and other crewmembers having lost their beds in the fire and since been bunking down on floors and tables throughout the ship, officials tell The New York Times.

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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
@alruwaishan I think it's been a mix of both, but the big thing is this standoff with the Gerald R. Ford and the fuel flowing through Yanbu. Based on how that's developing and their messaging, it just feels like something big is getting ready to happen.
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Abdullah بن Muhammad
Abdullah بن Muhammad@alruwaishan·
@NickJBrumfield If they have been waiting, and not hesitating, wouldn't it make sense to leave them until US/Israel escalate to the point Iran feels need to retake control? Or would Houthi involvement not be based on regional escalation?
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Houthis are inching closer and closer. It's gonna happen sometime. Likely sooner rather than later.
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
The US spiraling out at its allies for refusing to send ships to secure the Hormuz two weeks after becoming embroiled in a potentially world economy-breaking war of choice
GIF
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Air power bombs the fuck out of a much weaker but more motivated country, quickly runs out of military targets, pivots to threatening vital economic infrastructure in the hopes of exerting pressure. Instead engenders defiance. Same damn playbook every time.
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social retweetledi
Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦
Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦@CollinSLKoh·
Iranian diplomats somehow share a common trait with their PRC counterparts in particular: the penchant for making distasteful social media posts mocking at others' misery while insisting they're just being humorous. bangkokpost.com/thailand/gener…
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Technically didn't *directly* target the fuel infrastructure, so may be a bit further out than that. But just something to keep in mind amid all the talk of doubling down. This man can change on a dime based on how he enjoyed breakfast, which makes him a nightmare for analysts
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Based on when the US *started being serious* in its intensive Yemen air campaign by directly targeting fuel infrastructure in Hudaydah, we're two weeks out from Trump calling cutting a deal and calling it quits
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Everyone's clowning on Khamenei 2.0 not showing his face like Abd al-Malik al-Houthi didn't become the only Axis OG still around by being paranoid AF
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Sean Boonpracong
Sean Boonpracong@Rajprasong_News·
Not sure if the right hand and left hand of the Iranian govt understand that public opinion in #Thailand did not side w/ the US but w/ #Iran. Many sentiments will now desert Iranian side, for what it’s worth!
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Gregg Carlstrom
Gregg Carlstrom@glcarlstrom·
As a general rule: there's been a ton of misinformation about the Gulf in Israeli media (not just over the past nine days), and it's worth taking a beat and being skeptical when a bunch of outlets there all start repeating the same thing with extremely vague sourcing
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Yes, yes I know China wants the oil to flow as much as we do just enjoy the worldbuilding
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
It's 2031 Hormuz remains a risky gauntlet despite few actual incidents as the IRGC (True Believer) faction lobs cheap-ass drones at passing ships The US is embroiled in another conflict in Afghanistan after the Newsom Administration invaded to intercept Chinese drone components
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nickjbrumfield.bsky.social
nickjbrumfield.bsky.social@NickJBrumfield·
Cutting off the UAE loophole would arguably be the most damaging blow to the Iranian government since they killed Khamenei
Ibrahim Jalal | إبراهيم جلال@IbrahimJalalYE

The #UAE 🇦🇪 is weighing freezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets held in the #Gulf state, according to @WSJ. The move echoes the approx $ 300 billion in #Russia’s sovereign assets frozen after the 2022 invasion of #Ukraine & $ 150 billion in #Libya’s assets frozen in 2011.

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