@jackruhanen not really by that much? kp has michigan at +39.7 and mvsu at -31.2 while torvik has michigan at +38 and western ill at -30.6
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Nik Oza
2.3K posts
Nik Oza
@NikOza2
Sports Analytics | formerly with @Dodgers, @RaysBaseball and @hornets
Katılım Ocak 2013
1.6K Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
@NikOza2 I used Kenpom’s adj eff which has a wider spectrum between top and bottom than Barthag (which is what I assume Torvik uses for his BPM) since kenpom adj eff is uncapped. While the bottom of my BPM ratings are very similar to Torvik’s, the top where my BPM scores are higher (1/2)
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@jackruhanen Did you do any validation on whether the more aggressive adjustment for adj team eff is more predictive?
What do you mean by more aggressive adjustment for player age?
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@NikOza2 My own calculations, I applied a more aggressive adjustment for adjusted team efficiency and player age than most publicly available models I’ve seen. With the higher rated players, my model finds itself roughly +2 points higher than Torvik’s BPM calculations from this past year
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@BuckAnalytics @_MikeRoth are these your own RAPM calculations or are you pulling from a particular source?
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When grouped by conference tiers, there’s much less of a difference between small guards and bigs. This suggests that high majors have more access to the bigger players which drags the average up. The largest change can be seen for low majors. Thanks @_MikeRoth for the question
Ryan Miele@BuckAnalytics
When in doubt go big. Players 6’7 and taller have a positive Net RAPM on average with the biggest gains coming above 6’11. Guards 6’0 and below are much worse on average. Although it’s simple, height is one of the strongest predictors of value in CBB.
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(2/3)
apple podcasts (starts at 43:05): podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/wed…
spotify (starts at 39:00): open.spotify.com/episode/3Hj8oA…
iheart (starts at 43:05): iheart.com/podcast/1248-t…
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(1/3) I was interviewed by @ucf_marcdaniels about the evolving college basketball portal market, my "How to Value College Basketball Free Agents" article, and whether teams can "moneyball" a college roster (links👇)
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@matthewwinick oh wow lol. what is Xavier's budget? It hasn't been reported that they are one of the $10m+ schools, right?
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Can't think of a more blatant example of teams desperate to add bigs than an early add of Mike Nwoko at Xavier for a reported massive $ amount.
Nwoko's teams are 11-25 in league play with him as a starter and he's a net-negative defender with no ball skills. Great rebounder.
Jeff Borzello@jeffborzello
NEWS: LSU transfer Mike Nwoko has signed with Xavier, sources told ESPN. Nwoko, a 6-foot-10 junior, averaged 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds this past season, shooting 61% from the field.
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Nik Oza retweetledi
Actually I should have been more explicit and thanked @NikOza2 for his interesting work, rather than just QTing his original post, and suggest everyone read his article :)
ItsATerp@ItsATerp_CBB
I didn't really want to touch NIL stuff in hoop-explorer, but I got suckered in by this interesting model and quickly built it into the Team Editor. Enter your budget and ranking goal and the model spits out "fair values". You can edit known NILs and ofc player contributions
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Nik Oza retweetledi
I didn't really want to touch NIL stuff in hoop-explorer, but I got suckered in by this interesting model and quickly built it into the Team Editor.
Enter your budget and ranking goal and the model spits out "fair values". You can edit known NILs and ofc player contributions
Nik Oza@NikOza2
(1/4) The college basketball transfer portal is about to open. Most college coaches and GMs still don't know how to answer: how much is a player worth? When Flory Bidunga reportedly asks for $5M, is that great value or crazy?
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Nik Oza retweetledi
Nik Oza retweetledi
Really good stuff by Nik. And he mentions a really important limitation on my own valuation framework (it doesn’t answer how much a team *should* spend on a given player).
Nik Oza@NikOza2
(1/4) The college basketball transfer portal is about to open. Most college coaches and GMs still don't know how to answer: how much is a player worth? When Flory Bidunga reportedly asks for $5M, is that great value or crazy?
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Nik Oza retweetledi
@FreedomHallFile Yea that's why my framework can also answer the question: "Given a target team quality and a player signed at a fixed salary, what roster budget do we need to stay on track of our target at this rate of spending?"
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@NikOza2 Very cool! I think something underdiscussed is that budgets are so dynamic in CBB. A coach can maybe wrangle an extra 1.5 mil from a booster with the promise that this will get Flory Bidunga on the roster in a way he can't if he's spending the 3.5 mil on less sexy players instead
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Nik Oza retweetledi
Having said that , I do think what @NikOza2 here does is a pretty interesting starting block and I’m definitely intrigued.
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Nik Oza retweetledi
Have been talking a ton about player values/models with coaches in the last few days. One thing that is an issue right now with all-in-one models that I actually don’t know how to fix: every team’s salary cap is different. Every team can have its own cap and model out values — and I’d absolutely recommend individual teams doing that as a part of the puzzle — but hard to do it on a grand scale with all teams and all players.
Nik Oza@NikOza2
(1/4) The college basketball transfer portal is about to open. Most college coaches and GMs still don't know how to answer: how much is a player worth? When Flory Bidunga reportedly asks for $5M, is that great value or crazy?
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@BHatBball In the example I assumed the same replacement level across positions, but I mentioned in the article that this assumption might not hold depending on what the market bears out. In that case one can extend the framework to account for different replacement level by position
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@NikOza2 Is there any change in value based on their position?
Some guys have more competition at their spot than others.
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Really interesting to see calcs on player value in this new environment. Well done!
Nik Oza@NikOza2
(1/4) The college basketball transfer portal is about to open. Most college coaches and GMs still don't know how to answer: how much is a player worth? When Flory Bidunga reportedly asks for $5M, is that great value or crazy?
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@NikOza2 @Sam_Vecenie Fair. Part that sticks for me is the fact that SDSU NIL budget estimates are nowhere to be found. Regardless, your article is absolutely killer!
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