@AdamMancini4 This is what bulls want to see? 6670 downtrend channel didnt hit yet.
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222 posts
Levels continue to respect in #ES_F and getting another micro dip now. 6592 was support given 8am. It held. Targets were 6624 (hit), 6638 (hit), 6647 (we spent 2hrs there, then rejected), 6672 (not yet)
6624, 6592 remain supports. We sell if 6592 fails only.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Levels are certainly respecting well. There is nothing to do but hold runner in #ES_F. 6592 was support given at 8am. It held almost exact for low of day. Targets given were 6624 (hit), 6638 (hit), 6647 (we've been here 1hr, holding almost exact). There is just 6672 left above
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@paparrazipizza @tradivate Thats one way to put it! Quite bullish structure
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There's another target hit and this has been one of the best days for points this month. Latest entry was the 6638 recovery given at 11:14AM. We sold to ~6623 support, recovered. Targets given were 6647 (hit), 6664 (hit). 6677, 6690-95 if #ES_F wants more
6638 remains magnet
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We are now just into pure mid-day chop. Today has offered 4-5 good trades all given live or in newsletter. Now, just hold runner in #ES_F. 6638 is today's magnet and recovery of it was last long trigger given. Targets were 6647 (hit), 6664, 6677, 6690-95. Just ride runner now
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@AdamMancini4 @tradivate Bulls botching it? 38 reclaimed and got slapped
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@tradivate This time technicals favor an upward breakout, but anything can happen. 70% up, 30% down I'd say from here
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Tons of lvl to lvls moves today in #ES_F. 6638 remains today's magnet as posted 8am. We held it at 830am exact and ran to 6647, 6664, 6678 targets. We then swept it at 10am, and ran again to 6664.
6623 then became support, just held, now back to 6638. Same levels. 6604 below 23
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Days like today are for lvl to lvl day traders. I posted at 8am that 6638 was support and its today's magnet. We held it at 830AM, ran to 6647, 6664, 6678+ target's. We then swept it at 10am. 6647 (hit), 6664 (hit), 6678 targets again Back to 38. Watch traps again. 6623 below
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@AdamMancini4 @Trevormiles16 @GR41067012 Did contract roll already? Webull showing 6685. What's the spread now? 50 plus?
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@Trevormiles16 @GR41067012 Its a reclaim we swept 12 and recovered. Knife catch is just buying a support dduring a freefall
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Many new traders struggle because they think trading=predicting. My trading never turned a corner until I stopped thinking *at all* where/how price goes. I wait for my setup to present, I react to the trigger, then I manage it level to level. Price will follow what path it wants
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@AdamMancini4 We have had many good FBDs that could have taken us to 58. Specifically Mondays 1:45 low.
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We are now into almost untradeable midday chop in #ES_F. Don't overtrade. Bears retain control until 6758 recovers. 6706 reclaims now see 6716-20 (we've done this 2-3x now), 6739, 6758 above.
6693, 6680, 6663 next big supports down. Bounces being sold until 6758 recovers
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Bears control to start the day (they control until 6758 recovers later on) as posted and we continue the grind lower. I posted to watch traps of the overnight 6706 low. We trapped it to 6698, and ran to 6716-20 first target. 6738-42, 6758 if #ES_F wants more 6693, 6663 below
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After spending all ysterday printing points off the 6769 traps, we finally got range expansion overnight in #ES_F. Per newsletter, recoveries of 6716-20 trigger long & overnight traders got 45 points off it
Plan today: 6758 must reclaim to see 6769, 6782+. 6739, 6716-20=supports
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6769 keeps paying over & over in #ES_F. As posted 8:44AM (newsletter readers got it 4pm), 6769 traps are our long trigger. We trapped it to 6764, longed. Targets I gave were 6778-82, 6793, 6818-22 (hit exact).
We then sold to 6769 *exact* at 10:15AM, rallied again. Same targets
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Thats another very easy day in the books for #ES_F. I posted that 6769 traps trigger long. We trapped 6769 to 6764, recovered after CPI. Target slate was 6778-82 (hit), 6793 (hit), 6818-22 (hit exact). No need to make trading harder than this. Now protect gains. 6833, 6851 bonus
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That took its time but there's 6884 1st target up hit. As posted 6870 must reclaim to start a rally *attempt* in #ES_F. We got it, 6884 was 1st target, hit. 6894 next up, then 6899. Bears have the ball today until 6899 recovers above which we can work back towards that 6925 level
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Extreme chop to start the day in #ES_F and very low quality conditions - take profits level to level 0 exceptions. No change though - bears control below 6899. 6870 must reclaim to start a move to that inflection point. 6884, 6894, 6899 remain above. 6855 remains support
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@AdamMancini4 @OnTheHooch the inverse head and shoulder no longer intact?
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@OnTheHooch Its a bad position for bulls as long as we are below 6899 - they should've held above after that many attempts
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We are now 2 weeks in the same range in #ES_F (6925 to 6855 mostly). Yesterday 6891 reclaim was long trigger with 6925 target. We hit 6925, sold
Plan today: Bears have momentum until 6899 recovers now. Rally above. 6874=support (watch traps of yesterdays low). 6855, 6832 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6925-30 hit in #ES_F. Perfect session and the entire sequence was given live and at 3pm in yesterday's newsletter. 6867-70 was must hold support for today's dip. It held. 6891 reclaim triggered long. It did 6904, 6913, 6925-30 targets (hit). 6943 backtest next, then 6966
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You just woke up and markets are leaning risk-off 🩸
Here’s what’s happening.
Dow futures slightly red.
S&P futures slightly red, holding just above the 6,900 pivot.
Nasdaq futures weaker, still feeling the AI/tech weight.
Top stories today.
$NVDA post-earnings selloff is the tape
Good numbers, bad reaction. When the flagship AI name dumps anyway, it tells you expectations were the product, not the report itself. If NVDA can’t stabilize, semis and QQQ stay heavy.
2. Month-end rotation is real
Nasdaq is still down ~2.5% in Feb, Dow is green MTD. That’s value/financials/defensives absorbing flows while AI de-rates.
3. PCE is the macro catalyst
$SPX is sitting on 6,900 into the Fed’s preferred inflation read. Hot PCE, yields firm, tech pressure continues. Soft PCE, you can get a month-end squeeze.
4. AI disruption fears still hanging over software
The market is treating “AI can replace you” as a valuation reset. You’ll see it in how software trades on any bounce attempt.
5. Streaming headline trade
$NFLX and PARA are moving on the Paramount/WBD situation. It’s a separate catalyst inside comms while AI dominates the index tape.
Sector tape today.
$XLK tech, weak, tied to NVDA behavior.
$XLF financials, relative strength if rotation holds.
$XLC comms, headline-driven today.
$XLY discretionary, sensitive to PCE and consumer read-through.
$XLV health care, steady defensive bid.
$XLU utilities, quiet bid when risk comes off.
$XLE energy, softer, watching Iran headlines.
$XLP staples, stable shelter.
$XLB materials, depends on metals tone.
$XLRE real estate, rates-sensitive into PCE.
Large / mega-cap groups to watch.
AI platforms / hyperscalers
What matters: does mega-cap tech hold up if NVDA can’t bounce.
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META
AI hardware / semis / infra
What matters: do semis follow NVDA lower, or start showing dispersion.
$AMD $AVGO $LRCX $ASML
Software
What matters: does selling slow, or does the “disruption” narrative keep bleeding the group.
$CRM $NOW $SNOW $INTU $PLTR $IGV
Value / Dow leadership
What matters: if these lead again, risk appetite stays capped even if SPX holds.
$JPM $GS $AXP $CAT $UNH
What matters today.
$QQQ is the tell. If it can’t catch a bid while SPX holds 6,900, this stays rotation and caution. If NVDA stabilizes and PCE comes in friendly, you get a tradable bounce into month-end.
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@AdamMancini4 @smartelephants @loloiuytre Flag resistance is fresh right? Should see some reaction there at least
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@smartelephants @loloiuytre Earnings not till 4:30 I don't think so will likely be out at a similar time, maybe a little earlier
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Levels respecting well. Todays final target was 6952 & basing here for 1hr. It's been my target all week in #ES_F (written here and in newsletter) and the 6832 Failed Breakdown yesterday gave us our long to get here +120 points
6958, 6972=bonus targets today. 6925=support now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There it is. 6952 final target hit in #ES_F. This is 120+ points of upside from 6832 Failed Breakdown yesterday. Per yesterday's 4pm newsletter, I was looking for 6952-53 today, and we got it. Leave a small runner to go, and protect those gains. 6958, 6972 bonus targets npw
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Closing update #ES_F: While OPEX is tomorrow, today traded just like it with low volatility, untradeable chop after the run to 6893 targets. Bulls must hold 6849 now to keep upside live and we likely flush hard below. 6867-70 reclaim long now. NEwsletter out soon with entries
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It remains a total mess of chop in #ES_F, but we're getting setups. 6857 support this morning as posted, held and rallied to 6888, 6893 targets. 6849 next support, held exact 1:20PM, rallied back towards ~6876 magnet.
Now back to 49. 6876, 6888+ above. Sell<6849 to 6843, 6832
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6857 again in #ES_F & as warned for hours - this is untradeable chop as we digest the recent rally. We got our trade this morning. 6857 support (held to the tick) targets were 6888 (hit), 6893 (topped out) Watch recoveries of 6857/6861 now. 6876 magnet. 6849, 6822 below
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@KhareedBech I'm hoping we can go much deeper as there's just not much good to trade until we get another elevator down
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After yesterday's monster long, now low vol chop in #ES_F: All about 6876. Recover of it was yesterday's trigger to 6923-26 target. Late day, we held 6876 again and ran to 6910
Huge magnet. Nice sweep of the 6866 overnight low. 6877, 6888, 6893, 6904-08 above. 6857 next support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday's long trigger was trap of 6876 with target of 6923-26. We hit 6923-26, topped in #ES_F. I posted at 2:40PM 6876 was support again, held late day, rallied to 6910 Plan today: All about 6877 (just trapped). 6888, 6893, 6904-08 next (breakout above). 76 fails, dip 6856
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@AdamMancini4 @AStendorr After 54 isn't 6993 area another back test or is that just resistance of the range
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@AStendorr Yes 6954 still the big backtest point, though the more we dip the bigger the chance it just rips through. Its just a tiny retrace so far but if it becomes a normal retrace we'll rip through 54 right to ATHs
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Today done in #ES_F all targets complete. As posted 7:45AM today's target slate was 6893 (hit), 6908 (hit), 6913 (hit), 6923-26 final. 6923-26 remains the *exact* high of day. Now, we digest the move, and do it over again
6876 remains next support, 6893 must reclaim to pop
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Today went about as perfect as a day can in #ES_F. 6876 trap was long trigger given at 7:45AM. Targets were 6893 (hit), 6908 (hit), 6913 (hit). Final target was 6923-26, and that is exact high of day Nothing to do now. 6935, 6954 bonus. 6904-08 remains micro support, 6876 below
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@AdamMancini4 Given the PA do you think 57 breaks or we have enough energy to overshoot
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Yesterday we had a huge rally in #ES_F: 6808 Failed Breakdown was trigger with 6870, 6893, 6908 targets. We hit 6904 & dipped. Now, time to digest that move
I posted 7:30AM watch traps of 76. We trapped it, ran to 6893 1st target, dipped. 6908, 6923 remain above. Same downsides
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Perfect trade in #ES_F. Trigger yesterday was 6808 Failed Breakdown. Targets was 6870 (hit). At the close, I posted 6893, then 6908 were next. We hit 6904 Plan today: Ride runner/wait for next bear trap. 6876 (watch traps), 6857=supports. 6893, 6907, 6923-26 next. Sell<57 to 42
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@AdamMancini4 You mentioned few days ago traders should position for swings. Obviously not for day trading but do you feel the same here? Seems even more bullish if we can reclaim 70
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Closing update #ES_F: Today has been all about 6870. Reclaim there targetted 6877 (hit), 6893 (hit). CPI tomorrow and today has been almost identical to last Thursday, watch 6870 and traps below the daily low this evening. Same upside targets. Newsletter out soon with entries
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There's 6893 target #2 tagged in #ES_F. I posted 6870 had to reclaim to see 6877 (hit), 6893 (hit). 6908, 6926, 6936 above. As posted, today's sell was caused by the multiday shelf at 6954 failing. Bulls will need to backtest and recover it next to regain full control.
Sell<6870
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
First mini relief bounce of the day in #ES_F. I posted 6870 had to reclaim to see 6877 (hit), 6893 (1.5 points shy), 6908 above, then 6908, 6926, 6936+ above. It was the failure of 6954 that caused today's sell, and that needs to backtest and recover to end it. Same supports
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