Niko Jaakkola

I wrote a policy piece for @EconPolEurope Forum, w/ Rick van der Ploeg and Tony Venables. We argue that decisive 'big push' green industrial policy is needed to convince firms & households that, without a doubt, the green transition is going to happen. 1/N cesifo.org/en/publication…

How does NATO survive as a meaningful alliance when the leadership of its dominant member is compromised by relations with its primary adversary? European NATO has been deeply complacent about this issue, but that's a luxury we no longer have.

Europe had over two years to defend Ukraine with Biden behind us. We wasted them, and now may have to defend Ukraine with Trump behind Russia. That’s not American voters’ fault, it’s European leaders’ fault.

Some Ukrainians think Trump may bring resolution to Putin's bloody war. But it's clear any 'deal' imposed by US will be unacceptable to Kyiv, and result in loss of territory, and capitulation. Ukraine will carry on fighting. The question is whether Europe can or will step up ..

We’ve been talking about Trump proofing Europe for over a year now. the time has come to do something. Standing united, and protecting our economies, security and above all democracies is as existential as ever

A grim moment for #Kyiv. A second Trump presidency means the probable end of US military assistance to Ukraine. The country's troops are already outgunned on the battlefield, with Russia advancing at the fastest rate since 2022. East - most of Donetsk oblast - may be lost in 2025

Es ist unser Europa und wir haben nur dieses eine. Wenn die USA ausfallen, dann muss europäische Sicherheit europäisch werden. Das ist jetzt von allen Regierungen in Europa zu erwarten. Sie müssen in Zeiten des Krieges dieser historischen Aufgabe gerecht werde. #USAElection2024

Vielleicht der schwierigste Moment in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik, zur inneren Strukturkrise kommen nun massive außenwirtschaftliche und sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen, auf die wir nicht vorbereitet sind (trotz der vielen Mahnungen). Wir müssen jetzt umschalten.1/n

Solange sie noch können: die demokratischen Parteien in Deutschland sollten zusammenkommen und Verteidungsinvestitionen von der Schuldenbremse ausnehmen, damit Deutschland and Europa geopolitisch handlungsfähig werden. 3/n

The UK immediately needs to: - Increase defence spending rapidly (rather than shrinking its army) - Focus its military strategy on deterring Russian aggression in Europe (rather than confronting ‘global threats’) - Work with European allies to defend Europe under a NATO that doesn’t have US support (rather than assuming that America guarantees European security). Anything less would be a government dereliction of duty.

That would improve European security, set limits to Russian expansion and make Europeans much stronger in the transatlantic relationship which will be tested -- but remain crucial for both sides.

Europeans shouldn't waist time again with fantasizing endlessly about strategic autonomy. They should go to work immediately and massively invest in Ukraine and in defense.

If Trump wins the election on Tuesday, there is absolutely no room for moral superiority in Europe. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe has covered itself in shame, choosing to do business with Russia over doing everything in its power to help Ukraine and confront Putin. Shame.

Harris or Trump? Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us. On condition Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.

In 1996 Ukraine handed over nuclear weapons to Russia "in exchange for a guarantee never to be threatened or invaded".

Russian imperialism is at the heart of what is threatening Europe. If #Trump is elected and strikes a deal with #Putin, that would be the worst-case scenario. Our existing security order, which is built in large parts around NATO, would be massively damaged.

„Die #Ukraine wartet dringend auf weitere Hilfen, die Lage des Lande verschlechtert sich. Die abgesagte Konferenz wäre die Gelegenheit für den #Bundeskanzler gewesen, Führung zu übernehmen und zu zeigen, was ‚Zeitenwende‘ in #Europa bedeutet.“ (tm) friedrich-merz.de/merzmail/

I am back in Ukraine and the mood is pitch black. Ukraine feels betrayed. "Failing that, the West will have years to repent the betrayal of the courageous Ukrainians, whose only crime was their wish to join the Western democratic order" 1/ rusi.org/explore-our-re…

What’s needed is meaningful financial and military support for Ukraine. This will only happen if Western thinking shifts from fearing nuclear escalation to recognizing the existential need to contain Russia by force 8/

The greatest error that the US has made in relation to Russia’s war against Ukraine is just the latest variant of the same error that US administrations have been making for nearly 30 years: not taking Russia seriously. An enormous 🧵

The White House doesn’t seem to view its Ukraine policy as an issue that goes to the heart of the US’s credibility as a military superpower, and so to its ability to defend not just its allies but itself. But it seems pretty clear that US allies and adversaries do.