Noam Raydan

1/7 As trackers of maritime attacks in the MENA region since 2017, we've updated the map with confirmed incidents in the Persian Gulf & surrounding waterways amid the war. All in one place, with data aggregated. Here’s the link to the map: washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/ (Use on a computer monitor; not yet adapted for phone screens.) We're doing the work that will benefit others and putting things in context. It's free to access. #Shipping #OOTT #Hormuz @WashInstitute

The Institute’s new mapping project, spearheaded by experts @NoamRaydan and @FarzinNadimi, will help policymakers, analysts, and reporters seeking to understand the effects of maritime attacks on shipping traffic, global trade, and military movements. Learn more: washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/

1/4 If the US decides to remove sanctions on Iran's oil on water (in transit + floating storage), "~ 2 weeks" of supply, this means importers relying on Saudi & Iraqi crude can replace some volumes with Iranian barrels, given the disruption in oil flows via Hormuz. #OOTT #shipping #IranWar‌ reuters.com/business/energ…

4/4 Meanwhile, Russian oil at sea is subject to a 30-day sanctions waiver. Read my piece with my colleague @annaborsh on how Russia has been benefitting from the oil disruption via Hormuz: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

UN shipping agency IMO calls for safe corridor to evacuate seafarers from Gulf reuters.com/world/middle-e…

The *Syrian flag* is used by some tankers in the shadow fleet linked to Iran and Russia trade. I have come across three cases; one example below. This oil/chemical tanker, Maya (IMO 9171357), is among the ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz on March 1 (before changing name). She is U.S.-sanctioned for links to Sa’id al-Jamal, an Iran-backed Houthi financial official. In three cases, the ships have been using false flags. I was writing about the maritime domain in the Iran war today when I came across the Maya....and got distracted, of course. (this is the new Syrian flag since the collapse of the Assad regime) #OOTT #Syria #Iran

3/4 Sanctions pushed Iranian crude oil out of its major markets like India and caused it to diminish in others, like China. If the U.S. removes sanctions on Iran's oil on water, India is likely to be the first to import some of these barrels. And India has already returned to importing Russian bbls.

Our Institute cordially invites you to a webinar on "Middle East War - Implications and Outlook for Global Energy Markets" on March 18, 2026, at 3:30 PM (Beirut time), online via Zoom. The webinar will feature Peter Stevenson, Noam Raydan, and Bachar El-Halabi, moderated by IFI Associate Fellow @Marc_Ayoub. Register here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

@Namasteankit Yes, and that’s why I said “India-bound.”

@NoamRaydan These are stranded ships not a new empty/refill ships. With production already shut (or about to shut) in Gulf countries; the crisis will escalate much further.

Who will transit the Strait of Hormuz? There are signs that more India-bound LPG vessels in the Persian Gulf could transit. I'm avoiding posting photos with the names of ships. Additional vessels will be expected to sail with AIS signaling that they are clearly India-affiliated -- this will likely become the new norm in Hormuz for now. India is very vulnerable to LPG disruptions via Hormuz. About 80% of its LPG needs are imported. The problem, again, is not only related to crude oil flows via Hormuz. Reuters reported Friday that Iran “has allowed two Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas carriers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.” One confirmed tanker is now heading to India’s Mundra: SHIVALIK (IMO 9356892). In addition to these two, more should be expected based on the behavior of ships. #OOTT #LPG #Hormuz

2/2 Iran is positioning itself in Hormuz as a traffic controller. The Houthis did it, and I'm not surprised to see this unfortunately happening in another key chokepoint. We should expect some transit to resume, but it won't include all ships for now, and will depend on the trajectory of the war.

Follow up: 1/2 Based on this shipping behavior, what Iran is doing now is showing that it will allow more transit to resume, but they (Iran) will decide. They are showing they have leverage, willing to let some ships pass, but that it is up to them. Will more countries reach out to Iran? Something to watch. Unfortunately, this is the situation now. #Shipping

أطلق معهد واشنطن خريطةً تفاعلية لتتبّع الهجمات على الشحن البحري في الشرق الأوسط، وهي أداة تحليلية مهمّة تساعد الباحثين والصحفيين ومحللي السياسات على فهم أنماط الهجمات التي تنفذها الجماعات المدعومة من إيران وعمليات تهديد الملاحة في المنطقة. وتوفّر الخريطة مرجعاً أساسياً لرصد الحوادث البحرية وتحليل التطورات الأمنية في الممرات المائية الحيوية. @NoamRaydan & @FarzinNadimi #معهد_واشنطن #الأمن_البحري #مضيق_هرمز #الحوثيون #إيران #الشرق_الأوسط للاطلاع على الخريطة عبر الرابط : washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/

Italy Weighs Options as Damaged Russian LNG Tanker Drifts in the Mediterranean gcaptain.com/italy-weighs-o…

I spoke to @CBSNews and they featured a map we @WashInstitute created that tracks maritime attacks and incidents in the Middle East since 2017! Super proud of the team I worked with. Link to map: washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/ (Use on a computer monitor; not yet adapted for phone screens.) Watch my CBS News interview here:  youtube.com/watch?v=gojY1I… We have tracked and documented the Houthi maritime campaign since 2023. Several lessons can be derived from that campaign as we watch the maritime domain functioning as a theater of operations amid the #Iran war. Our map shows exactly how shipping and energy intersect in this region, which is key to global oil and gas markets. Our interactive and upgraded map carries more than 300 attacks/incidents since 2017. #Shipping #Hormuz

“To prevent Moscow from cashing in on the Iran war, Washington should maintain its sanctions on Russian oil, make sure that the India waiver is not extended beyond thirty days, and avoid issuing such waivers to other countries,” write @NoamRaydan and @annaborsh. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

The shipping and energy sectors are at the center of the Iran war. Here are three things that @NoamRaydan is watching ⬇️