Washington Institute

Big oil consumers like India are “particularly sensitive” to interruptions in the flow of Middle Eastern crude. To address the gap in supplies, New Delhi purchased 30 million barrels of Russian oil, write @NoamRaydan and @annaborsh. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

The Institute’s new mapping project, spearheaded by experts @NoamRaydan and @FarzinNadimi, will help policymakers, analysts, and reporters seeking to understand the effects of maritime attacks on shipping traffic, global trade, and military movements. Learn more: washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/

"The [Iran] war has still forced Syria’s young government to contend with challenges such as casualties from rockets and interceptors falling through its airspace, disinformation campaigns about its military intentions, increased border threats from Iranian proxies in Iraq and Lebanon, and energy and economic fallout that could affect its post-Assad transition and rebuilding efforts." washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

According to the new @freedomhouse annual report on global freedom, the country that had the largest increases in political rights and civil liberties in 2025 was Syria freedomhouse.org/article/new-re… Obviously a low bar previously, but still significant to acknowledge

“We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.” As I explained yesterday, although #European countries have not ruled out action in the #StraitofHormuz, they insist that any such involvement must be clearly separated from the current offensive campaign against Iran. More @WashInstitute washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

The *Syrian flag* is used by some tankers in the shadow fleet linked to Iran and Russia trade. I have come across three cases; one example below. This oil/chemical tanker, Maya (IMO 9171357), is among the ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz on March 1 (before changing name). She is U.S.-sanctioned for links to Sa’id al-Jamal, an Iran-backed Houthi financial official. In three cases, the ships have been using false flags. I was writing about the maritime domain in the Iran war today when I came across the Maya....and got distracted, of course. (this is the new Syrian flag since the collapse of the Assad regime) #OOTT #Syria #Iran

China won't abandon Iran, but there is also “no realistic scenario in which Beijing would ever take sides against its Arab partners,” writes Henry Tugendhat in @ForeignPolicy. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

U.S. Suspends Oil Shipping Rules to Ease Gas Price Pressures. The Jones Act dictates that only U.S.-made ships can move cargo between U.S. ports. They charge customers more for shipping than foreign vessels.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/bus…

“The United States has been squandering an opportunity to declare a goal that is both necessary and achievable: Instead of changing Iran’s regime, the U.S. should fatally weaken it,” writes @AmbDennisRoss in @TheAtlantic. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

The most important piece of Turkey’s global identity vis-a-via Europe is its deep economic integration with the EU EU pitched for Turkey to join its payments system, envoy says  reuters.com/business/finan…

In it, I discuss the energy/economic fallout, disinformation campaigns, defensive security, and diplomatic engagement + how great it is within the regional context that the Assad regime is gone from a U.S. policy perspective

4/4 Meanwhile, Russian oil at sea is subject to a 30-day sanctions waiver. Read my piece with my colleague @annaborsh on how Russia has been benefitting from the oil disruption via Hormuz: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… @WashInstitute

1/4 If the US decides to remove sanctions on Iran's oil on water (in transit + floating storage), "~ 2 weeks" of supply, this means importers relying on Saudi & Iraqi crude can replace some volumes with Iranian barrels, given the disruption in oil flows via Hormuz. #OOTT #shipping #IranWar‌ reuters.com/business/energ…

Great Power Competition During (and After) the Iran War - @WashInstitute washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

As the Iran war moves into its third week, here are three key military factors that Institute expert and former Pentagon official @RumleyGM is watching.

“The Lebanese government has called for negotiations, but Israel deems the current conditions unacceptable,” Assaf Orion told @CNN. cnn.com/2026/03/13/mid…

Since October 7, Israel is more about “security first,” said Assaf Orion. Listen to the latest episode of “Decision Points”: shows.acast.com/decision-point…

👉 Can Hezbollah be Dismantled? In this piece I argue that: 1- Like the Iranian regime, the endgame for Hezbollah is not to win the war, but to survive, and eventually rebuild and regenerate.  They have learnt throughout the previous wars that no matter the sacrifices, their control of Lebanon’s decision-making process, ports of entry, the cash economy, and security apparatuses will allow them to endure. 2- As the IDF prepares for a possible ground invasion, the Israeli government seems to be planning to finish the job and be the boots on the ground that the LAF was supposed to be.  2- Lebanon still has a chance. But to show strength, Lebanon’s leaders should be strong, take over Lebanon’s security decisions, and confiscate all illegal arms.  Lebanon can take a few steps without international assistance or approval and establish its ability to act as a sovereign state.  3- To that purpose, the Lebanese decisionmakers need to be made aware of two main dynamics: First, the war in Lebanon will not end if the war in Iran ends, and second, the war in Lebanon is not going to be concluded with another ceasefire agreement. This time around, Israel wants to see Hezbollah completely dismantled.  4- If Lebanon wants to avoid a long-lasting Israeli invasion and a prolonged war with Hezbollah, sitting aside and hoping for international mediation will not work this time.  More details here 👇 washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

Watch “Great Power Competition During (and After) the Iran War” with @annaborsh, @_SouhireMedini, Henry Tugendhat, and @RumleyGM ⬇️ washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

.@annaborsh: It is important to recognize the significance of the moment when Kyiv offered military expertise and technology to the Gulf states, which shows “what an incredible asset Ukraine is to the West.” #TWIPolicyForum