Crime Case Files

ATP 🎾 Fritz/Khachanov U41.5 (2%) I don’t see this match between Taylor Fritz and Karen Khachanov going to 5 and I see 2 lobsided sets happening. The simple big serve + single break combo will be the recipe here. Khachanov has had his way with Fritz in the past, but on grass, this could be just be simply Fritz ball right here. Khachanov has conceded 44 break opportunities across his four matches and outside of his match with Majchrzak, he totaled 61 and 58 unforced errors against Borges and Mochizuki respectively, telling me he hasn’t been playing solid tennis. His service games have been lackluster and any break Fritz gets here will simply be the end of the set, that’s how dominant Fritz has been on serve. I also like Fritz to dominate here because he got technically multiple days rest with Thompson’s injury. Serving has been dominant for Fritz with an 82% first serve win rate and amassing 79 aces across 3.33 matches. Break conversions are coming at a 43% clip for both players making limited breaks slim and effective. Fritz has done a solid job at limiting his own errors and letting opponents commit mistakes themselves. Fokina racked up 42 unforced, Diallo racked up 50 unforced, and Perricard racked up 63 unforced. With Khachanov having already committed many unforced errors, I could see another pattern beginning to brew here. Another reason why the under is causing me to lick my lips here is just the fact that KK has had his way with Fritz in the past and lobsided sets are seen with the big serve + singular break combo.