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I think the next 2 years leading up to the next federal election will be tumultuous. Here are my predictions:
Grievance and push back against Labor will continue to grow and One Nation’s support base will continue to increase, irrespective of what is published in the polls (beware the typical Australian “quiet voter”).
In the meantime, Labor will continue to stick to their plan of ramming through legislation using their numbers in the lower house and via deals in the senate.
They will arrogantly do this for the next 12 months, then in the immediate lead up to the election they will revert to smear campaigns against any One Nation candidate that have appeared in the meantime.
Unfortunately Labor will be somewhat successful in some of those smear campaigns because those One Nation candidates will essentially be normal people with actual lived experiences in the real world, and not just “career politicians” like current Labor and Liberal candidates.
This means that some of those One Nation candidate’s, (like all normal people) will have made various mistakes in the past and, believe me, Labor will focus on those mistakes, drag up as much dirt as possible, and the mud will fly with glee from their Labor’s tricks department.
Simultaneously, Labor will also ramp up support from their imported voter base by targeted policies and freebies, while painting One Nation as bigoted racists, (which is now becoming Labor’s default attack strategy).
At that time, Labor will counting on enough time having passed for people to have forgotten about their recent socially divisive and fiscally damaging policies, and will be relying on votes from the increased government employee sector and those now continuing to benefit from the welfare state.
Labor will be continually crunching the numbers and they will be feeling confident.
Given this, I don’t see why Albanese would step down as leader in the interim, as that could be disruptive, but I do see the possibility that he might do so AFTER the next general election if Labor do get over the line. He might site “personal reasons” etc as a means to do so.
If that is the case, then I’m thinking that the Labor’s future election campaign will include an increased presence from the person most likely to take over the Labor leadership and then that newly groomed person will then be elected leader by the Labor caucus.
(The Australian population will of course have no say in the matter).
I must also say that I am fervently hoping that Labor are instead removed entirely from government or, at the very least, that their arrogant behaviour and destructive stranglehold on our country is significantly curtailed by an increase in One Nation’s subsequent representation either in their own right or via a preference arrangement with other parties.
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