@PharmD_KS You can't say the move doesn't look crazy for a 500 stock index.
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Ned Fletcher
1.7K posts
Ned Fletcher
@NowOnNed
Trader 10 years now ES, mainly. My dog. Ex climate change and sustainability expert. Lax triathlete, Lover of skiing
Oxford Katılım Haziran 2013
579 Takip Edilen207 Takipçiler
Give it another watch this weekend. We’ve still seen nothing of the sort and thus far it sure has looked a lot like the other multi month breakouts.
Simply maintain long bias until we get something like the below
PharmD_KS@PharmD_KS
Threw together a relatively short video on what a top (swing high) would ideally look like, along with illustrating the risks of shorting a sustained multi-month breakout. Pre-requisite recommended reading would be the 5-part series in highlights tab
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@neilksethi How does the VIX-SPX correlation work? (I understand the mechanics, I mean 13pt drop = approx 7% rally)
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Tier1Alpha says the bulk of the SPX rally can be explained by the drop in the VIX:
The VIX has fallen from 31 to 18 in the last two weeks. All else equal, that 13 point change should have led to a roughly 7% S&P rally. We've rallied 9.4% in two weeks. Oil prices have fallen, as has interest rate volatility (the MOVE has collapsed alongside the VIX). In short, the PRICE of uncertainty has collapsed driving unwinds in hedges and shorts.
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@PharmD_KS HY not confirming, still below last Wednesdays high. I wouldn't ignore that. What do you think?
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I’m going to both tap the sign on this and also reiterate that I wouldn’t fade a sustained upside break.
The risks of a failed breakout are quite significant (risk for new longs) but there is just as much if not more risk to an account shorting a trend move out of balance. If it fails, it fails. Reacting >> predicting.
PharmD_KS@PharmD_KS
If you were decreasing your long exposure down near 6300 and are now adding long exposure up near 7000-7100, you are doing in precisely wrong 🤝 (Tho I’ll admit it is arguably less of a mistake than decreasing long exposure down there was)
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@GGlasaugen @PharmD_KS For more traditional linguistically minded people, what does the 'sound of deez nuts clapping at ya chin' mean?
(please)
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@PharmD_KS As the old market saying goes:
„Buy at the sound of cannons, sell at the sound of deez nuts clapping at ya chin“
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Nothing has changed in my thesis for $PURR
The fact that we are back at a discount to NAV while the company has hundreds of millions on their balance sheet to buy back their stock (which they've already shown they will do) and a 1b credit facility to buy more HYPE that is untapped is a massive advantage here
What do you think will happen once equities begin to rally to all time highs again? Or if Perps get integrated into the US in the next 3 months?
Capital Flows@Globalflows
I AM BULLISH $PURR It is a HYPE treasury company I believe that volume for tradfi assets will outpace crypto volume on Hyperliquid I explained the entire thesis in the livestream yesterday (I will link below). If you were on the livestream yesterday, then you know
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Ned Fletcher retweetledi
@jedimarkus77 I don't 'biy the dip' indiscriminately, but the skew towards a 200+ PT 'event' lends itself to buying weakness and not shorting it. Short squeeze massively outweighs long liquidation
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@jedimarkus77 I rarely say anything on twitter being 'reply guy', but this occured to me walking the dog today. In my early days of trading I kept being promised these 'wonderfully catastrophic' events that would move the market 200pts down in minutes. It doesn't happen outside of a nuke
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@AuclairsDad On Friday Hegseth said this was just the beginning. On Monday (today) Trump says it's nearly over. Trump 'taco'd'. Block me if you want but that is the long and short of it.
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@TradersCom @OilStockTrader @andrepaltry @ThePitBoss16 @apanalis @BadfishRanch But what about the rest of the world/unintended consequences...... (Not my area of expertise so no opinion to voice other than 'can't be good' )
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With lots of newfound oil & war experts (tainted by partisan bias we should add also) out here important to remember a lot has changed today versus the early 1990s.
- US economy uses less #oil & has swung from being heavily dependent upon imported oil & #naturalgas toward being a huge net exporter of both.
- Equals a modestly positive income shock to the overall economy on net from higher energy prices now.
Strategic oil reserves held by the US & China are also much bigger today.
#OOTT $XLE $XOM $CVX $VG $LNG $GASS #IranWar #natgas
Traders Community@TradersCom
Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Two Tribes Go to War #IranWar #JobsReport China National People Congress #CPI #Australia Earnings: $AVGO $MRVL $CRDO $MDB $VEEV $OKTA $CRWD $RGTI $QUBT $COST $TGT $BBY $KR $ANF $JD $GPRO $NCLH $PBR $CNQ $SQM $PLUG $GSL #ASX #OOTT #oil #natgas #Gold #VIX #SPX #BTC $SLV #Silver #Platinum $GDX #ETH #USDJPY #EURJPY #AUDUSD traderscommunity.com/traders-market…
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@PharmD_KS Are you saying you think a short/medium term bottom is in? Guess I can wait until the weekly plan. I have my own idea but useful to hear others.
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Covered March $QQQ and $SPY puts as their accounts were blowing at Thursdays low. Bought $IBIT and another name against against April puts.
GIF
PharmD_KS@PharmD_KS
Moving into the early stages of “account blown” aren’t we?
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@jaymesrosenthal Totally agree, but if trading is your only source of income (lets assume you pay yourself every 3-6months) then that definetly effects positioning psychology vis a vis it being a source of 'bonus' income
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@Globalflows Agree with your concept, what's your time/price target (or exit trigger otherwise)
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I AM BULLISH $PURR
It is a HYPE treasury company
I believe that volume for tradfi assets will outpace crypto volume on Hyperliquid
I explained the entire thesis in the livestream yesterday (I will link below). If you were on the livestream yesterday, then you know
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@PharmD_KS more interested in what you use for entry triggers (rather than actioning a level 'blind')
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@PharmD_KS While your paid stuff is broadly objective, you seem awful hyped for a significant pullback/correction rather than melt up to ride. Fair?
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