
jason streets
12.2K posts

jason streets
@OJStreets
Financial analyst




What if we are being misinformed in order to keep a lid on the oil price? What if talks are actually NOT going well and a peace treaty is NOT in fact imminent? What if there is no actual "cease fire" given ongoing kinetic action by both sides? What if Exxon and Chevron are right and working inventory levels are about to be breached in the coming weeks resulting in a price spike? What if the Strait does NOT in fact open, while everyone believes it will because "it has to"? What then???


June 2026 - 10 years on from the Brexit Referendum. What is the economic verdict? Negative, certainly. We estimate the UK economy is 2.5% smaller (~£75bn/year) as a result. But it is not the biggest negative impact on growth over the last decade. Domestic failures in energy, capital, construction & labour markets have had an impact twice as large. Charitably you could argue that Brexit took away the policy bandwidth that allowed these domestic failures to emerge unchallenged. But the evidence is they were done willingly, and look like noble intentions that got out of hand. More here in today’s @TimesBusiness thetimes.com/business/econo… and a nonpaywall version here: panmureliberum.com/insights/the-b…

The honest problem with renationalisation isn’t the principle, it’s the timing. You’ve just made the taxpayer the sole funder of every future rail upgrade, in the tightest fiscal decade in living memory. Private capital, whatever its faults, was money that wasn’t competing with cancer wards and tanks. Now all of it is. Good luck in that queue.




From today, millions of passengers will have better train journeys. We’ve nationalised Thameslink, Southern, Great Northern and Gatwick Express with plans to recruit more drivers and improve signalling to reduce delays and cancellations.


From today, millions of passengers will have better train journeys. We’ve nationalised Thameslink, Southern, Great Northern and Gatwick Express with plans to recruit more drivers and improve signalling to reduce delays and cancellations.


The fear over AI is palpable. So, it's time for my optimistic take .... Why the AI doom-and-gloom story is missing the bigger picture A lot of people hear “AI” and immediately think one of two things: it’s just Google search on steroids, or it’s a magic machine coming for everyone’s job. Both miss the bigger picture. A job is not one single task; it’s a bundle of tasks supported by a massive, fragmented software stack. Email, spreadsheets, presentations, Slack, CRM platforms, and, in finance, a Bloomberg Terminal, FactSet, and market data feeds. For millions of jobs, the cost of software to provide basic tools for these tasks can run to $1,000 a month, and more for complicated roles. Much of the modern workday is consumed by the friction of this stack: moving data between systems, cleaning spreadsheets, searching for files, and summarizing meetings. AI is emerging as the new interface for enterprise software. Think about the iPhone. It collapsed cameras, GPS devices, and music players into one simple, powerful device. AI is doing something similar for workplace software, turning 10 clunky programs that don't talk to each other into a single conversational prompt. Just as we stopped buying standalone cameras and tape recorders once the smartphone came around, companies will happily pay for an AI layer. It will be far cheaper and eliminate the bloated costs of that fragmented software stack that requires you to perform endless, mundane tasks because these programs do not talk to each other. The immediate fear is that if AI lets three people do the work of five, companies will fire two people. But that ignores economic history. When the electronic spreadsheet was invented, the cost of calculations plummeted. But accounting jobs didn't vanish; demand for complex financial modeling exploded. Accounting clerks became financial analysts, a more in-demand role. Jevons Paradox suggests that making a resource more efficient actually increases total demand for it. By absorbing the drudgery, AI allows the employee to focus on judgment and strategy—making the human element more valuable, not less. In this framework, demand for high-output workers doesn't shrink; it explodes. Does this justify the mind-numbing capital expenditure currently pouring into AI infrastructure? If AI fulfills this promise of enterprise-wide productivity, the investment isn't just justified—it’s a bargain. That said, we are clearly near the peak of a hype cycle, just like the internet was in 1999. But remember: the dot-com crash did not mean the internet was a bust. It simply meant the hype outpaced the infrastructure. After the wreckage cleared, the optimistic predictions about connectivity and productivity were not only fulfilled—they were exceeded. The same path can lie ahead for AI. And instead of the fear that AI will replace workers, it's the joy of replacing soulless busywork, making jobs more fulfilling... and more profitable for employers.







Baby elephant hears his name and decides to interrupt an interview


🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT! The My Martin Amis podcast is going LIVE in London again on 25 AUGUST 2026 (Amis’s birthday, it just so happens🍸) 🎉 AFTER AMIS 🎉 takes you from noon to midnight with one fabulous conversation after another, culminating in an afterparty for the ages. We’ll also be celebrating the launch of the Cambridge Companion to Martin Amis, produced by @CambridgeUP More detail to follow. Note it in your calendars. This is going to be something special.







🇬🇧 There are 79 vape shops on the Home Office’s public register of licensed visa sponsors. ‘Guardian Vapes Ltd’ in South Shields is licensed to sponsor overseas workers via the ‘Skilled Worker Visa’ route. 🧵1/3









