overthehillfinance

@CRUDEOIL231 So to be clear the communist in central control are trying to heavy hand a supply and demand market. We know where this will lead. Massive shortages and higher prices. It has never worked and never will. 🤦

I’ve been grinding away trying to map out China’s recent crude plays, but after going through today's report, I have to hand it to OIES—they scripted the plumbing way better than me. Here is my quick breakdown after running through their print, alongside the Chinese refinery throughput chart to help connect the dots. - Three months into the Hormuz crunch, and Beijing is completely blindsiding the market with its crude playbook. A heavyweight that easily sucked in 11mb/d over the last five years just saw its import prints plunge to 9.3mb/d in April. Now, the forward data says May and June seaborne arrivals are about to crater straight into the gutter at 6.5mb/d. Instead of running its usual playbook of panic-dumping the SPR to backstop the market during a supply crisis, Beijing just completely cock-blocked refiners from touching the strategic vaults, only greenlighting commercial stock draws. To make it worse, refiners aren't even willing to bleed their own commercial inventories, while state traders are acting like total penny-pinchers—happily flipping premium WAF cargoes back into the market and hoarding dirt-cheap Russian barrels instead. This is a complete 180 from the 2021 power crunch, when Beijing panicked and ordered everyone to grab supply 'at any cost.' The heavyweights and policymakers in Beijing clearly think they can outmaneuver this supply shock and keep the economic damage locked down by playing a few smart, tactical micro-levers. China’s true red line for freezing out imports is hardwired to the scale of their run cuts. If they try to copy-paste their five-year average throughput of 14.1mb/d, the exact moment seaborne arrivals drop below 9.2mb/d, they’re trapped—they either have to open the strategic taps wide or start chasing expensive market barrels. Instead, chopping runs by 5% down to a 13.4mb/d baseline is hands-down their most realistic, long-term survival play. In this setup, if domestic crude extraction and pipeline taps keep humming, they can easily coast for a few months without taking a single economic hit, even with seaborne prints scraping a measly 7.9–8.5mb/d, because transportation fuels like gas and diesel will still be taken care of. However cranking run cuts to a nuclear 10% scenario means they could survive without chasing a single market barrel even if seaborne flows dry up to 7.2mb/d—but they'd have to throw petrochemical feedstocks like naphtha and LPG under the bus just to keep gas and diesel flowing, a desperate move that runs on borrowed time and stalls out after a few months unless the whole economy is in a total tailspin. To micromanage this whole run-rate circus, China's refining complex is pulling a highly responsive lever: the yield shift. Beijing explicitly told state majors like Sinopec and PetroChina to ditch chemical feedstocks and prioritize flooding the market with gas and diesel, and these plants immediately saluted by shifting their product yields by several percentage points on a dime. As a result, the real bloodbath isn't happening at the refining gate—it's completely decimating the downstream petrochemical chain. With Hormuz blocked, their seaborne naphtha inflows were already sliced in half, but a 5% run cut is about to bleed domestic naphtha and LPG supplies by tens of millions of tons a quarter, sending a compounding, fatal shock straight through the petchem feedstock backbone. They are keeping wheels turning by guaranteeing gas and diesel, but the squeeze on industrial chemical feedstocks is completely running on borrowed time. To paper over the massive raw material hole in the petchem chain, Beijing is shoving its massive 'Coal-to-Chemicals' complex into the spotlight, branding it as a strategic shield against volatile crude under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Thanks to dirt-cheap, stable domestic coal, inland plants churning out olefins and methanol are running hot to boost volumes, but this quick fix hits a hard ceiling when it comes to replacing lost barrels at scale due to structural bottlenecks. The core infrastructure is trapped deep in the northwestern sticks like Inner Mongolia, meaning slamming those products down to the massive manufacturing teeth on the southeastern coast comes with a punishing logistics and freight premium. Most importantly, coal gasification routes physically cannot clone key aromatics or specialized LPG chemical chains—the feedstock deficit is mathematically locked in. On top of that, the fact that Beijing is sitting on a massive 1.1-1.3 billion barrel pile without tapping it proves that institutional red tape is locking up the plumbing. The 100 million barrels buried deep in dark underground rock caverns—completely invisible to satellites—are almost entirely SPR, requiring endless red tape like complex auctions and market disclosures, so Beijing is hoarding it as a nuclear option. Even for the commercial barrels that are accessible, refiners are terrified to draw down because plotting out the repayment timeframe to replace that crude is a total mathematical nightmare in this chaotic macro environment. Beijing is pulling off a highly calculated micromanagement script here: they are completely freezing out the inventory draw requests from state-owned heavyweights like Sinopec, who are nakedly exposed to global benchmarks and were the first to aggressively slash throughput. Instead, they are using the Shandong teapots as a human shield—handing these independent refiners tax breaks and strict run-rate mandates because they have the flexibility to stomach toxic, illicit Iranian and Russian barrels to cushion the margin bleed. Bottom line, this entire web of macro levers—starving imports, shifting yields, hunting for distressed barrels, and burning through coal-to-chem assets—will keep the lights on and protect the economic skeleton through the peak of summer, but only under that tight 5% run cut baseline that keeps seaborne arrivals pinned at roughly 8mb/d. But with May and June seaborne prints already locked in at a subterranean 6.5mb/d, the expiration date on this makeshift band-aid play cannot stretch into autumn. Short of letting their entire national refining infrastructure suffer a catastrophic meltdown, Beijing is running straight into a hard physical wall. Before late summer wraps up, they will be forced to either open the strategic floodgates and dump their massive stockpiles or make a frantic U-turn right back into the international physical market, chasing heavy volumes aggressively at any price. #oott #iran

FFS does anyone have a clue WTF is going on in the SOH? I mean seriously. #oott @OGJOnline @WSJbusiness $USO

Seriously about fell out of my chair when I learned about $DUOL Think $AMZN when it was just selling books. Somebody stop me before I go all in!! . 🚀🚀 . open.substack.com/pub/overthehil…

They simply need to make it to “tank bottoms”. What will WTI do then? WTI will spike beyond $300 and settle at $120-150 as demand destruction kicks in. This will have devastating effect on the economy. Not being alarmist but there is real peril in the air. As alway dyodd. #OOTT

How long can Iran hold out? Historically a long time. The absolute worst way to negotiate is exactly how the US is operating now vis a vis Iran. A serious question. Does anyone honestly think that threats alone are going to force Iran to abandon SOH control and their nuclear aims?

Weighing in on oil for my fellow AI cohorts who may not be aware. There is a major oil crisis as the world has lost 10% of its supply input every day for ~80 days. This is being covered by oil that was in tankers and now excess oil inventories.

@optionscjp Can't get out. Taxes would kill me. Anyone got any ideas?

Okay everyone post their $NVDA position in this thread so we can’t have a bunch of pussy liars post earnings claiming they were positioned PERFECTLY Mine is 200 shares 5 ITM Leaps that I plan on taking assignment of. $NVDA to $300+ this year

Rory's right, for motivated adults who can prompt an LLM, ChatGPT wins. That's maybe 5% of users. The other 95% need the owl at 9pm. The streak. The leaderboard. The five-minute habit loop. A blank ChatGPT prompt requires self-direction. Duolingo provides it by default. And. DAU/MAU hit 41.9% which is YouTube territory after ChatGPT launched. If LLMs were substituting, that number falls. It's at an all-time high. I bout fell out of my chair when I read this: $DUOL makes $0.65 / MAU. Spotify makes $4.23. No upsells. No cross-sells. No B2B. Math and music barely monetized. Social layer not built yet. If revenue per user just doubles, still less than a third of Spotify, it's a $10B stock. Think $amzn when it was only selling books.

My updated 48-page $DUOL Ultimate Investment Thesis following the Q1 earnings is now LIVE. You can view and download it for FREE here: bit.ly/3ILzOc4 Note: For the best viewing experience, download and open in Microsoft Word.

@bestofbreakin Ummmm didn’t he let Jesse’s girlfriend Jane die rather than call 911 and attempt CPR? That was S2E12

Mike’s murder is the moment Walter White stops being able to justify himself. Before that, Walt could still pretend his violence was about survival: Krazy-8, Gus... But Mike was different. Walt killed him because Mike hit the weakest part of Heisenberg: his ego.

HFS. Is this real? $DUOL has 133M 🔥LOYAL🔥 MAU at $0.65/month per user. Mkt cap ~$5B Now monetize at these levels: $SPOT: ~$34B mkt cap $MSFT / LinkedIn: ~$65B $NFLX: ~$140B One more thing. Think $AMZN while they were only selling books. Someone smarter than me needs to tear this apart before I go all in

Wait. What? Read this carefully. $PENG just added David Heard to their board. - He was CEO of Infinera which $NOK bought for $2.3B - Before that Lucent. AT&T. JDS Uniphase. - Heard built the optical networking - He joins Mark Papermaster, CTO of $AMD The most important photonic networking executive alive. Sitting next to the most important CPU architect alive. Making decisions for a $2B company. Someone said it better than I can: “This is not a board you build if you are a simple systems integrator. This is a board you build when you are about to become something much larger.” $48 a share now. 🚀 NPI Engineer hired last week. David Heard joins the board this week. I told you the boxes were coming. They’re coming. 🏄 @OTHfinance Not financial advice. Do your own. Shoutout to @CKCapitalxx

Trump’s Q1 2026 disclosure just dropped. $1M+ in $ADBE during the software selloff. Also bought $NOW $ORCL $WDAY in the same window. Also already 100%+ on $PENG $MRVL and $BE. The president of the United States is running the same AI infrastructure thesis we’ve been building. I’m long $NOW and looking to make room for $ADBE Over the hill. Under the radar. 🏄 @OTHfinance Not financial advice.

@TheCinesthetic Still the best series I’ve watched

The ending of The Wire (2002–2008) is tv at its absolute peak. The show quietly reveals that every player is replaceable, every system keeps running, and the cycle never really stops. Few finales trust the audience enough to end on something that honest.

Most people read the $PENG earnings call. I went to the job boards. One role tells you everything. Manufacturing NPI Engineer in Newark CA posted 5 days ago. NPI = the bridge between the lab and the factory floor. It only gets hired at one stage. Full breakdown in the doc. Check out the back tested data. One more sign coming from $MRVL soon. @pennycheck @CKCapitalxx 🏄 @OTHfinance Not financial advice.

@CKCapitalxx Nice rack. Will have to dig in on some of these. Like your industry spread. Following $PENG closely and believe it rerates to 10x soon.

My 2030 price targets. These are mine. Not financial advice. DYOR. $ASTS — $77 today. Every US carrier now on board. 3.3 billion addressable subscribers. 60% of consumers willing to pay per GSMA survey. At 30% adoption and $5 ARPU this is a $1 trillion company. 2030 target: $1000+. $NBIS — $218 today. 684% revenue growth. $7-9B ARR guidance for 2026. Meta deal. NVIDIA partnership. Pennsylvania 1.2GW factory announced. At 15x on $7B revenue that’s $105B market cap. Still early. 2030 target: $800+. $BE — $275 today. 130% revenue growth Q1. $3.6B 2026 guidance. Oracle deal up to 2.8GW. The AI power crisis is Bloom’s supercycle. 2030 target: $700*+. $HOOD — $77 today. Expanding into prediction markets, private equity, and crypto. Every new retail investor cycle runs through Robinhood first. 2030 target: $300+. $PENG — $49 today. NASA. US Air Force. US Navy. NVIDIA and AMD partner. Photonic memory optionality completely unpriced. 2030 target: $150+. $KRKNF — $5.30 today. NATO naval spending supercycle just started. $28M in new orders last month alone. The most important underwater defense tech company nobody is talking about. 2030 target: $20+. $AMPX — $17 today. Silicon anode batteries. DoD contracts. Highest energy density battery commercially available. 2030 target: $80+. $EOS.AX — 9.30 AUD today. A$726M pro-forma order book. Full counter-drone stack now complete. NiDAR battle proven against Shahed drones. 2030 target: 50+ AUD. $OPTX — $7.64 today. Space optics quadrupled production. Anduril EagleEye exposure. NDAA domestic sourcing mandates. 2030 target: $50+. $VIVO — $4.65 today. Management guiding $1B revenue by 2029 on assets they already control. 2030 target: $40+. These are the ones I’m holding into the decade.

@Danny_Crypton @grok The dot com bubble was built upon air and a dream. …yandeverythingunderthefreakingsun.com valued at $1b with nothing but a name. Same for 1000s of companies. Pure euphoria. AI 2026 spending is real $750B. REAL. No not the same at all.

Hey @grok, is it true that the stock market is about to repeat the dot-com bubble crash from 2000? Based on this chart, that’s exactly what is being confirmed.