Oex
2.2K posts
Oex
@O_Excess
Sports cards and TCGs. Crunching numbers and ripping wax. Working on some collector tools.
Katılım Temmuz 2021
2.3K Takip Edilen1.9K Takipçiler
Tigers shortstop with 33 career games played — 2 HR, 14 RBI. Card sells for $48K.
Al Kaline played in 2,834 games over 22 seasons with the Tigers. 3,007 hits, 399 homers.
His record card sale? $50,400 last month for his 1954 Topps rookie in a PSA 9.
Alt@altxyzofficial
RECORD SALE: We just sold this 2025 Kevin McGonigle Bowman Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Refractor in a PSA 10 for a record $48,000 in our auction. This makes it the most expensive Kevin McGonigle to sell, more than doubling the previous record.
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@WaxMetrix Target hobbies and jumbos specifically for prospects since only one auto per BD box compared to two nba players.
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In 2025/26 Bowman Basketball, the array of Case Hit level and rarer inserts will be one of the most desirable aspects of the product. Here I'll go over what rare inserts are available in what formats, and detail the rate at which you can expect to pull them.
Spotlights: Hobby, Jumbo, Breaker's
(Parallels in Hobby/Jumbo only.)
Anime: Hobby, Jumbo, Value, Bulk
Garbage Pail Kids: Hobby, Jumbo, Value, Bulk
Crystalized: Hobby, Jumbo, Breaker's
(Parallels in Hobby/Jumbo only.)
To summarize, Hobby & Jumbo have the potential to pull all rare inserts.
Breaker's Delight have potential for Spotlights & Crystalized, but no parallels of either.
Value Boxes only contain Anime & GPK.
Megas have no rare insert potential.
Now on to the pull rates from each format:
Hobby- 1 rare insert per 15.8 boxes (1 per 1.32 cases)- $5,372.00 per
Jumbo- 1 rare insert per 11.5 boxes (1 per 1.44 cases)- $6,900.00 per
Breaker's Delight- 1 rare insert per 9.1 boxes (1 per 1.52 cases)
Value Boxes- 1 rare insert per 709.1 boxes (1 per 17.7 cases)- $21,273.00 per
Bulk Packs- 1 rare inserts per 431.1 packs (When we figure out box dynamics, we will divide this number by the number of packs per box to get "Boxes per Rare Insert".)
As you can see, if Rare Inserts are what you're chasing...and let's be real, we all are...then you'll want to focus on Hobby & Jumbo formats.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025BowmanBasketball
SlabSquatch Sports Cards@WaxMetrix
2025/26 Bowman Basketball Analysis & Deep Dive Bowman explodes back on to the basketball scene for the first time since 2009. On the surface, you’ll recognize some familiar Bowman DNA. If you’ve been ripping Bowman flagship baseball over the past several years, you’ll feel somewhat at home. But once you start peeling back layers, this thing gets more complex in a hurry and will keep even the most seasoned Bowman hype men on their toes. The dynamics are a mashup of Chrome, Paper, Pro, & NIL names, all thrown together in one big happy product, but all kept distinctly separate. This one will need some updating once live data starts rolling in. That said, there's more than enough here to give collectors some guidance on where value might live when Bowman drops on Wednesday, April 22. So let's crack this thing open and see what we're working with. Welcome to 2025/26 Bowman Basketball. The basics: Pre-orders went up on March 24th at $340/Hobby, $600/Jumbo, $60/Mega, and $30/Value Box. These will likely be a touch higher on drop day, but these are the prices I will go off of for now. Total cards in the product: 111,821,248 It makes sense to compare to it's closest comp, 2025 Bowman Baseball, which came in at 152,262,136 total cards. This represents 26.6% less production than the most recent Bowman baseball flagship. Total Base production: 98,066,458 Here is the biggest cloudy area at this time. Though I can calculate pretty specifically how much base is produced in total, there is not enough data available for me to break that down further into Chrome vs Paper or Pro vs NIL names. That will have to wait until we see live rips. I can tell you that base makes up 87.7% of the product, which is a noticeable drop from Bowman baseball (92.5%). That shift comes from Topps leaning hard into the “more parallels is better” philosophy. Bowman NBA checks in at 6,682,114 total parallels compared to 2,969,356 in 2025 Bowman MLB, a 125% increase- more than double the parallels on a significantly smaller product overall. Though I’m not ready to call that good or bad just yet. The insertion of more parallels doesn't automatically improve or ruin a product. It’s always case by case. Total production by format and it's comparison to the same SKU in 2025 Bowman Baseball: Hobby- 108,312 boxes (9,026 cases) <-8.2%> Jumbo- 63,856 boxes (7,982 cases) <-5.2%> Breaker's Delight- 25,000 boxes (4,167 cases) <-20.6%> Value- 980,680 boxes (24,517 cases) <-10.5%> Mega- 388,333 boxes (19,417 cases) <-35.3%> Bulk packs- 50,000 Overall, format production is fairly in line with 2025 Bowman Baseball, with the biggest difference showing up in Mega box output. On the surface, that would suggest availability should mirror what we saw with Bowman MLB. But the real variable here is demand. I expect basketball demand to outpace baseball, so even with somewhat similar print runs, this could be tougher to find and may not sit on shelves very long. If you want Bowman NBA and you see it in the wild, it’s probably worth grabbing. It may not be there next time. That said, let’s not get carried away. This isn’t Chrome NBA or NFL-level frenzy. Not even close. Calculated Hit Rates: Hobby- 2 Autos, 8 parallels, 10 inserts, 3.4 numbered cards Jumbo- 4 Autos, 13.2 parallels, 17.5 inserts, 6 numbered cards Breaker's- 3 Autos, 3.4 parallels, 1 insert, 2.6 numbered cards Value- 1 auto per 8.6 boxes (4.65/case), 2 parallels, 4 inserts, 1 # card per 2.7 boxes Mega- 1 auto per 4.7 boxes, 7.4 parallels, 1 insert, 1.4 # cards Bulk- 1 auto per 12.2 packs, 0.5 parallels/pack, 1.5 inserts/pack, 1 # card per 3 packs Format highlights: 1) Frustratingly, the shrinkflation is real with this product. I suspect it's a slightly different animal from baseball, so we can't really expect it to have the same box dynamics. But it sure would be nice if they weren't smaller. Hobby boxes have changed from 24 packs of 8 cards to 20 packs of 8. Also, Jumbo boxes have changed from 12 packs of 28 to 12 packs of 24. And we couldn't keep Value Boxes immune to the changes. They shrank from 6 packs of 12 to 6 packs of 10. 2) Mega box dynamics have also changed from the norm. They're not 4 or 5 base packs and 2 Mojo packs. The Mojo parallels look to be dispersed throughout all 6 packs of the box at a rate of 1 per pack. So a Mega box should yield 6 Mojo parallels rather than the 10 we have come to expect. I suspect it's pretty obvious why this change was made. 3) Though they didn't technically add any new parallel colors to the Mojos this round (there are still 15 parallels of Mojo Refractors), I believe this is far too many for the Megas to absorb cleanly and they will feel just as watered down as they have in recent iterations. Interestingly, their one saving grace is autos are easier than they were in Bowman MLB Megas. Total Mojo autos in NBA is 82,335. Total for MLB Megas was 83,924. Which means a very similar number of autos inserted into 35% fewer boxes, bringing the auto hit rate down from 1 per 7.15 boxes in baseball to 1 per 4.72 boxes in basketball. This is a welcome change, but I don't think it will be enough to call the Megas a good value at $60. 1.4 high serial numbered parallels per box and an auto in every 5th box isn't going to move the dial significantly. 4) That leads me to the biggest format question mark... Bulk packs. This is not a new format by any means. We often find Bulk packs listed on the odds, and we find that they eventually show up as some mixed pack or super box format, or possibly a gravity feed box with loose packs for purchase. It's hard to tell exactly, but when we see an odd format of Bowman Basketball show up in stores, we will know. These look to have something like 14 cards/pack and could possibly be stand-alone but could also be bundled in with another product. Now, this is important because usually when we see bulk packs they're just filler and not actually a viable format that can compete with the usual suspects in hit density. However, that is not the case this time. In fact, Bulk packs look to be the strongest format for all the variants possible to pull from them. Granted, you can't pull everything from them. However, almost everything that can be pulled from a Value Box can also be pulled from Bulk packs. This includes many auto subsets and rare inserts like Anime, GPK, and Retrofractors. Value Map: These will all be based on the box pricing listed above with one exception. I cannot include Bulk Packs in this list because I can't speculate on their pricing. But in my calculations, I've tried plugging multiple differenct prices in for them and as long as they're $20/pack or less, they are a solid buy and would lead just about every category. If they end up being a bundled product, I suspect pricing will be more like $5-$10/pack. If so, that's even better. But you won't see them on this list for that reason. $/card 1) Value- 50¢ 2) Mega- $1.43 3) Jumbo- $2.08 4) Hobby- $2.13 $/parallel 1) Mega- $8.08 2) Value- $15 3) Hobby- $43.15 4) Jumbo- $45.39 $/Auto 1) Jumbo- $150 2) Hobby- $170 3) Breaker's- $183.33 4) Value- $257.10 $/# Card 1) Mega- $43.17 2) Value- $81.30 3) Jumbo- $100 4) Hobby- $101.49 Best formats: If you're ripping this product and you don't have a history with Flagship Bowman, I want you to understand that traditionally 71% of the product is essentially worthless paper cards. This is by no means a predominantly Chrome release. There are paper parallels, but they only hold a portion of the value of similar Chrome parallels. And unless you're a die-hard NIL basketball fan, there will likely be a lot of names you don't recognize. Such is Bowman. Overall the checklist is pretty great with the dynamic NBA rookie class, which will be represented well. There is also a 50-card checklist of Red RCs, of which having the Rookie of the Year will land you a cool $100 in Fanatics cash. I'm pretty sure we can narrow that down to two potential ROY winners, so the rest will just be fluff. Topps does a great job of spotlighting all the cool & shiny stuff that can come from some of these boxes. And there are some amazing pieces. But you have to understand these boxes are not the exciting rip it may appear if you haven't experienced them before. They can even be, dare I say, boring? Picking a "best format" is not nearly as cut-and-dry as it usually is. Between Hobby, Jumbo, and Value, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. It’s tough to call any of them a clear winner from a ripping standpoint. In past Bowman releases, plenty of rippers have sworn by the efficiency of Value boxes, but I’m just not seeing it here. Value boxes are worse than the hobby formats almost across the board, it just happens to look better from a “$ per parallel” perspective. I’m pretty much ruling out Mega Boxes. Unless, by some miracle, the Mojo autos carry the “1st Bowman” designation, that would go a long way toward saving them. But that hasn’t been the case in a long time, and I don’t expect it to change now. At $340/$600, Hobby and Jumbo are nearly identical in value. Jumbo gets the slight edge for autos since you’re getting twice as many for not quite double the price. Hobby, on the other hand, is a bit better for most of the desirable inserts. An added benefit of going Hobby/Jumbo over retail is the autos will be all Chrome. In Value Boxes, about 40% of the autos will be far more undesirable paper autos. Of the two, it’s tough to pick a true winner because everything is so close, but if I had to lean, I’d go Jumbo with Hobby right behind. I can’t really recommend Value or Megas here. But I keep coming back to these mysterious Bulk packs. I’m very curious to see how these show up. When they hit the market and you’re looking to rip, I think that’s the play. Hard to fully endorse something without knowing the format details, but I just don’t see a world where these presumably 14-card packs are more than $20 each. If they land in some kind of super box format at $10 per pack or less, it’s a no-brainer. From a flipping or stashing standpoint, Hobby & Jumbo formats will very likely increase considerably in value. New products have been a feeding frenzy lately. Will these spike like the Chrome releases as of late? I don't see that happening. They will certainly increase, but I'm keeping my expectations tempered. Though I do think it will be worthwhile to snag some Hobby or Jumbo and sit on them for a bit if that's how you hobby. I don't see it being a losing play. Print runs Unnumbered Parallels: Base Chrome Mini-Diamond- ~360 ea Base Chrome Reptilian- ~6,040 ea Base Chrome Geometric- ~45 ea Base Chrome Mojo- ~5,825 ea Base Chrome Rookie Red RC- ~8,025 ea Chrome Prospect Mini-Diamond- ~360 ea Chrome Prospect Reptilian- ~10,800 ea Chrome Prospect Geometric- ~50 ea Chrome Prospect Mojo- ~11,650 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Talent Tracker (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea Talent Tracker Refractor- ~4,025 ea Talent Tracker Geometric- ~15 ea Gen Next (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea Gen Next Refractor- ~4,025 ea Gen Next Geometric- ~15 ea Very Important Prospects (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea Very Important Prospects Refractor- ~4,025 ea Very Important Prospects Geometric- ~15 ea Bowman Verified (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea Bowman Verified Refractor- ~4,025 ea Bowman Verified Geometric- ~15 ea ROY Favorites (15 card CL)- ~27,040 ea ROY Favorites Refractor- ~4,070 ea ROY Favorites Geometric- ~15 ea Hobby Stars (15 card CL)- ~27,040 ea Hoby Stars Refractor- ~4,070 ea Hobby Stars Geometric- ~15 ea Young Kings (25 card CL)- ~26,705 ea Young Kings Refractor- ~4,025 ea Young Kings Geometric- ~15 ea Rockstar Rookies (20 card CL)- ~27,120 ea Rockstar Rookies Refractor- ~4,045 ea Rockstar Rookies Geometric- ~15 ea Greatness Loading (25 card CL)- ~26,705 ea Greatness Loading Refractor- ~4,025 ea Greatness Loading Geometric- ~15 ea Base Chrome Etched in Glass Variation- ~360 ea Chrome Prospect Etched in Glass Variation- ~360 ea Base Chrome Retrofractor- ~240 ea Spotlights NBA- ~360 ea Spotlights NIL- ~360 ea Anime NBA- ~140 ea Anime NIL- ~195 ea Garbage Pail Kids NBA- ~100 ea Garbage Pail Kids NIL- ~100 ea Crystalized NBA- ~300 ea Crystalized NIL- ~300 ea Mega Rookies (25 card CL)- ~7,170 ea Mega Prospects (25 card CL)- ~7,170 ea Unnumbered Autos: Future Script (25 card CL)- ~110 ea Buzz Factor (25 card CL)- ~145 ea Opening Statement Signatures (25 card CL)- ~120 ea Timeless Touch Signatures (25 card CL)- ~3,260 ea Base Paper Retail Autos (99 card CL)- ~16 ea (Not a typo) Base Chrome Autos (98 card CL)- ~915 ea Base Chrome Auto Refractors- ~275 ea Base Chrome Auto Geometric- ~65 ea Paper Prospect Retail Auto (100 card CL)- ~80 ea Chrome Prospect Auto (99 card CL)- ~780 ea Base Chrome Auto Mojo (98 card CL)- ~125 ea Chrome Prospect Auto Mojo (99 card CL)- ~90 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025BowmanBasketball
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@iCeazey @CardPurchaser You'd be shocked how much is actually held back. Including ultra rare stuff like 1/1s, Reds /5, etc. Generally speaking, it calculates to about 3%-5% across the board. But in some subsets, it's considerably higher than that.
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Isn’t it weird that Topps keeps high end numbered cards as replacements for damaged cards? How many of these cards do they keep? This makes it A LOT harder to get big hits from retail, and certain cards are out of rotation from hobbies. Peculiar… @CardPurchaser
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2025 Topps Chrome NFL
Since we’re dead nuts in the middle of a Topps Chrome frenzy, I wanted to add some context to answer the question:
How does Chrome NFL actually stack up from a value standpoint against Chrome NBA and Chrome MLB?
We all know how 2025 Chrome MLB went. Not well. In my analysis, I called it one of the worst products of the year, and I’ll stand behind that.
NBA Chrome? Complete opposite story.
From the first teaser, it was all hype. Still, somehow, we all underestimated it.
First came the sticker shock. But eventually came the realization…we should’ve been buying everything in sight while it was just sitting on shelves- even the lowly $50 "Value Boxes", which seemed like the worst deal on the planet at the time.
If you need more worthless stats like this in your life, feel free to follow me on Substack where you can see hundreds of hours of my life wasted in one tidy list of Sports Card Analysis.
@slabsquatch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@slabsquatch
If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’ve probably seen me reference a metric I created initially to compare NBA Chrome formats that I call “Quality Hits.” At a high level, it measures how often you’re actually hitting something worth a damn.
To qualify, a hit has to meet at least one of these criteria:
1) Parallels numbered /76 or less
2) Insert parallels /75 or less
3) Case Hit level Inserts (or rarer)
4) Autos /100 or less
Is it perfect? No. I understand there are great hits that won’t qualify. And there are plenty that do qualify, but still suck. This isn’t about players. It’s about "dart throws" (as my dude Stryker says). We don’t know who you’ll hit, but the odds do tell us how often you’re even giving yourself a chance.
Think of it like WAR in baseball. It’s not flawless, but it helps filter out the noise. By stripping out the fluff... unnumbered/common parallels, common inserts, watered-down autos… we can actually see which products are delivering substance vs. just stuffing boxes with filler.
Since rolling this out last year, I track it internally on every product I break down. It’s one of the cleanest ways I’ve found to compare value across formats, price points, and even different sports (& non-sports). It's a huge help when comparing a large list of products for value, which you'll definitely see more of in the future. Think "25 Best Wax Values on the Market" as we head into the National.
With all that in mind, I want to compare propensity of Quality Hits at secondary market pricing from the major Chrome releases in the three major sports. We all know the insane current pricing of NBA Chrome sealed stuff. Is there a chance, even at those prices, it could STILL be a better buy than NFL Chrome?
We also know you can STILL find 2025 Topps Chrome on many retail shelves three full quarters after release. Is there a chance it could be a sneaky value play because pricing on NFL & NBA have reached certifiably insane levels?
Let's find out.
Though I have my issues with the Big Bully Card resellers, I feel that's where most get their pricing data, so that's where I'll start. If you are able to find it cheaper, or brave the ebay waters, this will at least give you a foundation to go by. For our purposes, I will exclude Breaker's Delight formats because the only benefit in that would be for breakers.
Current pricing:
2025 Topps Chrome MLB
Hangers: N/A
Value Boxes: $40
Megas: $75
Fanatics Mega: $100
Hobby: $260
Jumbo: $530
2025/26 Topps Chrome NBA
Hangers: $90
Value Boxes: $95
Megas: $245
Fanatics Megas: $290
Hobby: $1335
Jumbo: $2375
2025 Topps Chrome NFL (In order to compare apples to apples, I will use secondary market pricing even on the retail stuff. We all know, if you can score at retail, just buy. You don't need metrics for free money.)
Hangers: $55
Value Boxes: $85
Megas: $148
Fanatics Megas: $135 (ebay)
Hobby: $1160
Jumbo: $2500
Now I'll integrate my Quality Hits metric to rank each format in "$ per Quality Hit":
Hangers:
1) NBA (1QH per 6.75 boxes)- $607.50
2) NFL (1QH per 22.11 boxes) - $1,216.05
Value Boxes:
1) MLB (1QH per 9.25 boxes)- $370.00
2) NBA (1QH per 6.52 boxes)- $619.40
3) NFL (1QH per 8.76 boxes)- $744.60
Megas:
1) MLB (1QH per 5.06 boxes)- $379.50
2) NBA (1QH per 3.5 boxes)- $857.50
3) NFL (1QH per 5.92 boxes)- $876.16
Fanatics Megas:
1) MLB (1QH per 3.81 boxes)- $381.00
2) NFL (1QH per 5.05 boxes)- $681.75
3) NBA (1QH per 2.99 boxes)- $867.10
Hobby:
1) MLB (1QH per 1.67 boxes)- $434.20
2) NFL (1QH per 0.99 boxes)- $1,148.40
3) NBA (1QH per 1.13 boxes)- $1,508.55
Jumbo:
1) MLB (1QH per 1.1 boxes)- $583.00
2) NFL (1QH per 0.52 boxes)- $1,300.00
3) NBA (1QH per 0.55 boxes)- $1,306.25
$ per Quality Hit Tops 5 Formats:
1) MLB Value Boxes- $370.00
2) MLB Megas- $379.50
3) MLB Fanatics Megas- $381.00
4) MLB Hobby- $434.20
5) MLB Jumbo- $583.00
Oh my. Looks like a clean sweep. Widely known as a trash product, yet from a value standpoint, every format of MLB Chrome performs better than NFL or NBA.
So, this isn't exactly a fair fight. Much like the 1998 Home Run race, MLB is a bit of a cheater in this race. Namely, checklist matters. And that MLB Chrome checklist is not deep. There are some names, but as for depth, it definitely occupies the kiddie pool compared to the competition. And that 166-subject Rookie Auto checklist is abysmal. Not to mention the built in values propped up by NFL & NBA being first year back as licensed products. So let's look at the next 5 formats:
6) NBA Hangers- $607.50
7) NBA Value Boxes- $619.40
8) NFL Fanatics Megas- $681.75
9) NFL Value Boxes- $744.60
10) NBA Megas- $857.50
Honorable Mention:
11) NBA Fanatics Megas- $867.10
So if you're actually a ripper of product, and not into the MLB dumpster fire, even though maybe it provides some sneaky value without spending a mortgage payment, here's the neighborhood you want to live. And this is eye opening. Even at current absurd pricing, NBA Hangers and NBA Value Boxes are STILL better than any format offered by NFL Chrome. And the NBA checklist is the deepest of the three sports.
If you can't quit the NFL circus, do yourself a favor and go after Fanatics Megas and regular Megas when they drop on May 1. At drop pricing, they're a no-brainer. Even at secondary pricing, those Fanatics Megas sitting on Ebay for $135ish, I assure you will look like a steal in a few months.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromeNFL #2025ToppsChromeMLB #2025ToppsChromeNBA
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🚨NEW BREAK!
📦 5 boxes of 2022 Bowman Draft 1st Edition
🤞Random Teams (30 spots)
Take 1 for $41, 2 for $76, or 3 for $110
All cards ship. Chasing 1st Bowmans of Noah Schultz, Sal Stewart, Misiorowski, Delauter, Neto, Chandler Simpson, Holliday, etc. Breaks when full!
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Interesting graph showing breaker direct accounts over time. Looks like 30 were cut heading into 2026.
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@NEOCards_Comics why is 2024/25 combined? Maybe 2026 is not a reduction if they lumped in two years for the previous - as accounts naturally fluctuate across years
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2025/26 Topps Cosmic Chrome NBA Analysis & Deep Dive
As usual, we were put back in that unenviable spot that we're becoming accustomed to…making big decisions with our ass before our head can get involved. Fortunately, we now have odds, right after we all attempted to drop racks on a product we were hoping might be good. This one's coming in hot, so if it's not quite as polished as usual, you'll survive.
Here's what we know so far- people are "winning" an EQL. Like a lot of people. Regular people, not just pros & bots. Heck, in a wholly unexpected turn of events, I even scored 5 boxes on this EQL. Which immediately had me worried.
Yeah, I know. I can't just take my rare W and move on. I have to question everything. It's my brain. I can't turn it off.
So how could this be? This never happens. The way I see it, only one of two outcomes is possible. @Topps either fixed EQL and rooted out bots en masse... or they printed Cosmic to Uranus.
Allow me to ease your fears, fellow skeptics. Cosmic is certifiably NOT printed into oblivion. This is a huge release for the fresh Topps Basketball license. But thankfully, it did not receive the Topps Chrome NBA treatment.
Sooooo, did Topps FIX THE EQL??!!? I, for one, will remain hopeful until we see otherwise. And if that happens to be the case, I hope they utilize EQL for other major releases like the upcoming Bowman Basketball.
Before we get lost in the weeds, let’s take a quick trip back to the last Cosmic Chrome NBA release…that unlicensed beauty from Wemby’s rookie year, 2023/24 Cosmic Chrome. Except it didn’t actually release until December of 2024. Which, last I checked, was not even close to his rookie year. But we’ll save that circus for another day.
Most people would rather forget that product. It’s one of the rare releases that dropped in price after release. Weird, right? Wemby rookie autos and all. Panini didn’t even have those. Cosmic did…and still went down.
And it’s not like the cards were ugly. They looked good. Very Cosmic. Some legitimately great inserts, which is kind of the whole point of the product.
So why bring it up?
Because the dynamics are eerily similar to what we’re about to see here, just with a couple added numbered parallels.
We’re about to get another real-time reminder, just like we did with Topps Chrome NBA, of how much a license actually matters.
And the answer is…a lot. Probably more than it actually should.
2025/26 Cosmic Chrome
Total Cards in the Product:
6,355,200
For comparison: 2023/24 Cosmic Basketball- 5,203,400 (+22.1%)
Since that basketball version was unlicensed, probably a better comparison is 2025 Cosmic Chrome Baseball- 5,470,560 (+16.2%)
Though this represents more production than both prior Cosmic Chrome sets, it's also not an egregious increase. If you remember, NBA Chrome was printed at a clip of 32.7% over the prior baseball version. So this one coming in at only 16% more is very reasonable in my book.
Production by format:
Hobby 79,440 boxes (9,930 cases)
2023/24 Cosmic Basketball- 65,043 boxes
2025 Cosmic Baseball- 68,235 boxes
Lunar Boxes:
As is the trend, Lunar Boxes do exist. These typically contain one Lunar parallel /10 per pack. They didn't show up as a separate format on this odds sheet like they did on the baseball odds sheet, so we're left to estimate just a bit.
Based on odds, there are a total of 2,080 Lunar Base cards produced. Lunar inserts are not called out on the odds sheet, but could very well exist as we've seen in past Lunar Boxes. If we estimate 20 Lunar Base cards /10 for each Lunar Box, this should get us very close to Lunar Box production.
Therefore, we have ~104 Lunar boxes produced.
In Cosmic Baseball, this figure was 147 boxes, so they should be considerably tougher to hit in Cosmic NBA.
Hit Rates per Box:
This is an extra fun category in Cosmic because there so many abnormal facets that make this product tick.
Autos- 0.37/box (1 per 2.73 boxes, or ~3 per case). This is almost identical to the auto distribution in Cosmic baseball.
Parallels- 4.7/box (Also ~2.4 Insert parallels/box, so total parallels/box comes to ~7)
Inserts- 12.9/box
Numbered Cards- 2.3/box
Total Planetary Pursuits/case- 3
Total Rare Inserts/case- 5.33
Rare inserts have changed a bit from the Cosmic we are accustomed to. In addition to the typical Planetary Pursuits, we now have the following rare inserts (Print runs on each available further down):
StarFractor
Re-Entry
Geocentric
First Light
HyperNova
Cosmic Dust
At the time of writing, I did not see the numbered parallel structure called out on the usual checklist sites. Those are as follows:
Aqua Equinox /199
Purple Nebula /150
Blue Moon /99
Green Space Dust /75
Gold Interstellar /50
Orange Galactic /25
Black Eclipse /10
Red Flare /5
Superfractor /1
Value Map- based on pre-order price of $580/box:
$/card- $7.25
$/Auto- $1,585.45
$/Insert- $45.06
$/# card- $254.52
Conclusions:
This is Cosmic doing Cosmic things. Slightly bigger print, sure…but still limited.
We just watched First Day Issue Cosmic sell out nearly $1k over drop price of hobby for a paltry two extra parallels. That should tell you everything you need to know about demand when you slap a real NBA license on this product.
Where this product wins is exactly where Cosmic always wins:
1) The visuals go hard
2) The inserts chase is addictive
3) The top-end parallels get nuclear
Those Planetary Pursuits of legit stratospheric names? Four figures may be a conservative estimate.
Yeah, no auto hurts at this price. We all feel it. But let’s be honest…if they guaranteed autos in this, you're paying $1500+/box secondary.
This isn’t Finest, which was actually pretty solid. This isn’t Topps Three (thank God). This is a collector-driven, star-powered, eye-candy monster…and the basketball crowd hasn’t had a proper one yet.
And they're hungry.
They're getting tired of buying exorbitantly priced Chrome Megas and Value Boxes.
Like Mason Miller's new Korn intro...."Are You Ready?!"
What Would the Squatch Do?
What the Squatch did do is not hesitate. Full transparency, I maxed the 5-box EQL and didn’t blink.
If this is your jam, you play. Simple as that.
We just had pre-orders. There will be another drop in a month. It's worth a shot to try and get some at MSRP.
This clears recent Topps Finest NBA in terms of ceiling, and that stuff is already $925+ a box. Cosmic will surpass that, probably with ease.
Boxes are going up. That part feels inevitable.
Breaks will be chaos.
This is one of those releases where everything just… works.
Cosmic doesn’t miss often.
And when you finally give it a license and a basketball checklist?
Yeah...this one’s going to punch harder than the baseball versions. And those already double in price like clockwork.
Hidden Values No One Will Be Talking About
1) White Hole Refractors are unnumbered but limited to ~65 copies ea.
2) If you are a Planetary Pursuit chaser and want the rarest possible, as usual it is Pluto. However, there are only 2 less copies of Neptune printed, and only 5 less Uranus. And typically these are wildly discounted from the crazy Pluto pricing, even though they are almost equally as scarce.
3) Alien Autographs are an awesome new Auto Subset. The print run on the base of these, 40, is lower than the Gold parallels /50.
Print runs:
Base production- ~24,660 ea
Parallels:
Base Refractors- ~800 ea
Base Nucleus- ~400 ea
White Hole Refractors- ~65 ea
Inserts:
Galaxy Greats (35 card CL)- ~7,570 ea
Galaxy Greats Refractor- ~1,260 ea
Extraterrestrial Talent (25 card CL)- ~7,950 ea
Extraterrestrial Talent Refractor- ~1,270 ea
Propulsion (25 card CL)- ~7,950 ea
Propulsion Refractor- ~1,270 ea
Space Walk (15 card CL)- ~8,150 ea
Space Walk Refractor- ~1,280 ea
StarFractor (50 card CL)- ~55 ea
Re-Entry (40 card CL)- ~50 ea
Geocentric (30 card CL)- ~50 ea
First Light (30 card CL)- ~50 ea
HyperNova (20 card CL)- ~400 ea
Cosmic Dust (20 card CL)- ~100 ea
Planetary Pursuits (10 card CL for each):
Sun- ~1,990 ea
Mercury- ~485 ea
Venus- ~250 ea
Earth- ~125 ea
Mars- ~66 ea
Jupiter- ~33 ea
Saturn- ~20 ea
Uranus- ~10 ea
Neptune- ~7 ea
Pluto- ~5 ea
Autos:
Cosmic Chrome Auto Variation Refractor (48 card CL)- ~99 ea
Singularity Signatures Refractor (46 card CL)- ~105 ea
Alien Autos Refractor (32 card CL)- ~40 ea
Electro-Static Signatures Refractor (30 card CL)- ~66 ea
First Flight Signatures Refractor (29 card CL)- ~80 ea
Cosmic Chrome Auto Variation II Refractor (2 card CL)- ~25 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsCosmicChromeNBA
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Holy hell! Wasn't expecting this. Is now when they drop the odds and we find out they 10xed production? I'm certainly not complaining. Firmly believe this was a good one to land.
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@O_Excess Finally got to checkout... a full 1hr 57min after drop. Pay screen pops up- boom, sold out! I'm shocked.
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Defied the odds on heritage - bought two boxes but this was in the first. Keeping the second sealed.
Numbers are bad in this product but couldn’t help myself @WaxMetrix
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2026 Topps Heritage Analysis & Deep Dive
Topps Heritage, a popular set among set collectors, offers the perfect blend of nostalgia and .......***RECORD SCRAAAATCH***........
Yeah, no. That's not how we do it around here. That's not why you Watch the Squatch. If you want pretty little polished write-ups wrapped in a bow, there are a lot of places you can go for that. Around here we keep it real. If a product is great, I'll gladly let you know. If it sucks, I won't sugarcoat it. If you like your deep dives spicy, factual, and loaded with way too many numbers...you're in the right place. Welcome to 2026 Topps Heritage.
First off, it doesn't matter how badly the odds sheet guy butchers the thing, I assure you I will sift through the madness and make sense of it, no matter how long it takes. But let’s not pretend... this odds sheet is a mess. And not the “oops we made a typo” kind. The “let’s chum the water so much maybe the sharks will miss the mark” kind.
I'm not sure exactly what they're trying to hide because, by and large, 2026 Heritage is a near mirror image of 2025 Heritage. Oh yeah, except for one major thing. So I guess I do know what they're trying to hide. And yeah, we'll get there...
If you enjoy content like this, please consider joining me on Substack, where I keep my entire archive of 100+ product deep dives in a much more navigable catalog.
@slabsquatch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@slabsquatch
Part 1: Odds Sheet Autopsy
Total cards in product:
2026 Heritage- 82,164,240
2025 Heritage- 85,588,580
YOY: -4% (Yes, minus. So now we know it's possible.)
Also relevant, 2025 Heritage High production: 14,221,090 total cards.
It's a different animal, the High Number checklist and all. This is the one where Topps experimented with releasing Hobby boxes only, resulting in 1/6th the production of a typical Heritage release. I'll come back to this.
Total base production:
2026 Heritage- 70,914,620
2025 Heritage- 73,258,150
YOY: -3.2%
Base card print run:
2026 Heritage- 236,382 copies ea
2025 Heritage- 183,145 copies ea
Though production remains essentially stagnant, base cards per player rose considerably thanks to 100 less subjects on the base checklist.
Total production by format:
Hobby- 116,064 boxes (9,672 cases) +9.9% YOY
Megas- 164,620 boxes (8,231 cases) +6.8% YOY
Value- 332,640 boxes (8,316 cases) +12% YOY
Hangers- 300,160 boxes (4,690 cases) -24.3% YOY
Fat Packs- 470,556 packs (4,357 cases) +3.6% YOY
Notice anything? Most formats are up… even though total card production is slightly down.
This is made possible by stuffing less packs into boxes.
Hobby: 24 packs ➤ 20
Value Boxes: 9 packs ➤ 8
Same price. Less product. More boxes. AKA revenue engineering.
Hangers kept the same card count, so naturally that's the SKU that gets chopped significantly. Shocker. It's fine though, these Hangers are struggling anyway. They're certainly not bangers.
And at this point, I can only presume Fat Packs still have 20 cards as I have not seen any details. If they come out blazing with 36 cards like Stadium Club did, I'll adjust accordingly.
Part 2: What's Actually in the Box?
Hobby:
Autos- 1 per 8 boxes (Or 1.5 Autos/case)
Relics- 0.85/box (~85% of boxes should contain a relic)
Parallels- 28.6/box
Inserts- 3.4/box
Numbered cards- 0.6 (60% of boxes should contain a # card, not counting autos or relics)
Mega:
Autos- 1 per 17 boxes (1.2/case)
Relics- 1 per 7 boxes (2.9/case)
Parallels- 14.2/box
Inserts- 1/box
Numbered cards- 1 per 3.9 boxes
Value Boxes:
Autos- 1 per 72.5 boxes (1 per 1.8 cases)
Relics- 1 per 7.9 boxes
Parallels- 8.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
Numbered cards- 1 per 8.5 boxes
Hangers:
Autos- 1 per 185 boxes (1 per 2.9 cases)
Relics- 1 per 28.3 boxes (2.3 per case)
Parallels- 3/box
Inserts- 1 per 2.3 boxes
Numbered cards- 1 per 15.5 boxes
Fat Packs:
Autos- 1 per 454 packs (1 per 4.2 cases)
Relics- 1 per 65.8 packs (1.6 per case)
Parallels- 2/pack
Inserts- 1 per 4 packs
Numbered cards- 1 per 28.6 packs
If you're paying attention, you can already spot the biggest change from 2025 to 2026. Autos are SPARSE. Poor Heritage has been pillaged. Now, we're not talking a Stadium Club level degloving, but disrespected, nonetheless.
2025 Heritage total Autos- 67,915
2026 Heritage total Autos- 31,520
YOY: -53.6%
For a lower-end product, Heritage Real One autos have historically held surprising value, especially the hand-numbered Red Ink variety. Topps was kind enough to not print Heritage into oblivion, but we got a rug pull when it comes to autos.
Numbered cards are tough in Heritage as well, but that's no surprise. There are a number of desirable Parallels & Variations that have low print runs but remain unnumbered.
Part 3: Value Map
Prices based on Hobby drop price of $120/box and MSRP on retail SKUs (Mega- $50, Value- $25, Hanger- $15, Fat Pack- $7).
$/card:
1) Fat Pack- 35¢
2) Mega- 37¢
3) Value- 39¢
$/parallel
1) Value- $3.08
2) Mega- $3.52
3) Fat Pack- $3.78
$/Auto
1) Mega- $847
2) Hobby- $960
3) Value- $1812.25
$/# card
1) Mega- $193.50
2) Fat Pack- $200.20
3) Hobby- $206.90
Part 4: What Would the Squatch Do?
I actually like Heritage. I like that you can actually buy some if you want it. I like that it's not sold out before you can add it to your cart. I like that it doesn't double in price, ever. I like that there are big chases. Seriously, there are some massive cards that will be pulled from this release: Ohtani, Judge, Bonds, Trout, Kurtz, Skenes, Roman, Caglianone, Jeter, Pujols- all show up in the auto checklist.
If you want to partake in 2026 Heritage, I'm pretty confident in saying Hobby is not the best overall format. It's close, but Mega boxes offer more for the money, and not just junk parallels.
Hobby does have access to the really scarce Patch Auto and Relic parallels that aren't found in Megas. So if you’re chasing pure ceiling, Hobby is still the move. But if you want a more reasonable, slightly less degenerate sweat, Megas hit the sweet spot, especially once Hobby settles in at $140-$150/box.
For the sealed wax connoisseurs, I truly don't believe this product, left unripped, will increase in value enough to make it worthwhile.
But if you really want to know what I would do....
If I'm playing in the Heritage realm, I'm seriously considering revisiting 2025 Heritage High:
•6,172 total cases produced compared to 30,000+
•14.2m total cards compared to 82m+
•20,400 autos distributed among far less product (compared to 31,500 buried in a mountain of 2026 wax)
•Still sitting around $125/box
•Strong Auto checklist with less bloat
•Red Ink odds 1:499 packs vs 1:1,575 for 2026 Hobby
It's definitely not perfect. The High Number base checklist can seem pretty rough. which kills your chances at strong parallels and variations. And there are no Chrome Autos like in 2026. But I'm an odds guy at heart. And 2025 High Number blows 2026 out of the water in that regard.
Part 5: Print Runs
Highlights before I get into the numbers:
1) Among retail exclusive parallels, the scarcest are Dark Yellow/Aqua Sparkle from Fat Packs, and Light Purple/Burgundy Sparkle from Hangers.
2) I have two key print run anomalies to address. Odds are consistently long on Red Ink Autos across the board. According to the odds they are tougher even than they should be, resulting in the Print Run of each totaling only 28 copies inserted in the product. I have a hard time believing this since they are hand numbered to /77. The checklist for Real One Autos is reported to be 114 subjects. If, by chance, not all of these are available in Red Ink versions, this would explain the anomaly and all I need to do is correct the checklist size. But, if there are truly 114 subjects on the Red Ink checklist, then there are a serious amount being held back. I will revisit this if I get more clarification.
3) Similarly, Base Chrome Gold /50 Autos are only showing 11 copies each in the product. You can verify this by noticing how much tougher the odds are than the Orange Chrome Autos /25. Just know they're more scarce than 50 copies ea, likely due to some being held back, which is not uncommon.
Unnumbered Parallels/Variations:
Deckle Edge- 190 copies ea
Dark Gray- 1,935 ea
Flip Stock- 5 ea
Black Border- 50 ea
Dark Green- 1,460 ea
Dark Yellow- 480 ea
Light Purple- 580 ea
Red Border- 1,400 ea
Base Short Prints- 23,760 ea
Base Chrome- 4,330 ea
Chrome Refractors- 1,700 ea
Chrome Light Blue Sparkle- 1,935 ea
Pink Sparkle- 1,460 ea
Aqua Sparkle- 480 ea
Burgundy Sparkle- 580 ea
Silver Sparkle- 1,400 ea
Chrome SPs- 4,330 ea
Chrome SP Refractors- 1,665 ea
All-Star Logo Variations (20 card CL)- 1,740 ea
Base Image Variations (50 card CL)- 1,740 ea
Alternate Banner Variations (20 card CL)- 1,740 ea
Nickname Variations (10 card CL)- 1,740 ea
Throwback Jersey Variations (10 card CL)- 35 ea
Black & White Image Variations (40 card CL)- 35 ea
Inserts:
Ready & Action! (25 card CL)- 16,430 ea
The Enterprise (30 card CL)- 16,350 ea
Raw Power (10 card CL)- 16,820 ea
1977 Topps Originals Buybacks (no checklist size noted)- 55,270 total distributed throughout product
Autos:
Real One Autos (114 card CL)- 210 ea
Expansion Autos (8 card CL)- 200 ea
Base Chrome Autos (13 card CL)- 45 ea
1977 Topps Award Winner Buyback Autos (no checklist size noted)- 460 total distributed throughout product
Relics:
Clubhouse Collection Relics (98 card CL)- 1,550 ea
Real One Relics (50 card CL)- 280 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHeritage
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Think shohei is short printed maybe just on the /25 and below. So odds are pretty low. I’d have to run the numbers on how low but it ain’t good.
I thought maybe he’d be make an appearance in all the serialized but that doesn’t seem to be the case from the anecdotal evidence coming in.
Safe to say, calculating individual odds going forward will be mostly impossible.
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@beanzpoker @Topps @O_Excess did you see this response from earlier?Thought you might be interested.
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2025 Bowman's Best
As you know, I had rave reviews for this product after analyzing the odds sheet. But let me add a dash of clarification, if you will.
I still believe Bowman's Best is a strong product overall, even better than last year. However, @Topps’ method of attempting to accept my money for the product they produce is atrocious and borderline criminal.
Would I have bought at $350/box? Gladly. Several boxes. Whether you're ripping or stashing, that price point works.
Will I be buying at $600+/box, the current going rate? Absolutely not. And I hate that my LCS is forced to charge that because they can’t get product themselves at a reasonable price. It's selling, so who can blame them?
Fanatics has the hobby right where they want us. We’re expected to feel lucky buying direct because they have the “best deals in town,” yet it’s become nearly impossible to do so on even marginally popular releases. Meanwhile, some of the very shops that helped build this hobby long before Fanatics arrived are getting squeezed out.
Some of my favorite people on the planet are my LCS owners. They’re as fair and hard-working as any small business owner can be, and they sell as much Topps product as anyone. With the system Fanatics has implemented for new releases, I’ve been forced to spend thousands less per year with them because they simply can’t compete with Topps’ direct pricing. It pains me to see local shops used as pawns in a multi-billion-dollar game of chess.
I’m quick to give Topps credit where it’s due. They do a lot of things right. But I can’t remember a time I’ve been more disgusted with them.
They have the ability to fix this. I just don’t think they want to.
@CardPurchaser
#thehobbyneedssomehelp #SlabSquatchAnalytics #comeonFanatics
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@4CardsOnly @Topps Ya - super short print plus the odds of those autos generally were misprinted and never corrected
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I ordered 40 of these and they all had major issues. In general the living collections have not been consistently poorer quality.
To Topps credit they did accept the defect submission.
PSAcard@PSAcard
On hardwood, Cooper Flagg’s game is elite. But on the surface of his 2026 Topps Living card, PSA graders have flagged a common print defect.
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@GrandSalamiSC For sure and the best performance autos are still at least 10x off the published odds (1:21 packs) and Topps has been tagged several times about it by both large and small accounts. At least issue a statement or change the odds sheets so people aren’t wrecked
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I definitely think Topps needs to make it clear in the checklist if a guy is short printed this significantly compared to other players in the same checklist. It completely changes the value equation for player breaks. People been spending probably 3x what they would’ve if they knew about this ahead of time
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Anyone else notice there is only one Roman Anthony Best of 2025 auto listed on eBay? And it’s a red x-fractor (redemption.) Would be very frustrating if he only had super low number parallels. Totally changes the value dynamic of Red Sox and PYP spots.
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👀Think we'll be seeing a few record sports card sales this year.
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id…
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