Omar Kraidié
3.7K posts

Omar Kraidié
@OmarKraidie
Software Engineer. Trade at your own risk never financial advice.
Katılım Ocak 2020
260 Takip Edilen220 Takipçiler

@BeardoTrader Just make the money back lost from the software stock Armageddon and call it a day 🤝🏼🤝🏼🤝🏼
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@MomsPostingLs Men with girlfriends must have a side chick. Your main girl will respect you more and she will never cheat on you because she will be afraid of losing you.
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@Mr_Derivatives I wanted to buy $200 puts but they are expensive
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@28delayslater Elon should also setup a toll but payments only acceptable with TSLA stock. Can't wait for 2030 when they have 20 million ships paying the toll annually.
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@nottellingyou73 This is 100% the obvious move to do. But to be honest 2025 should not have been a green year. There's absolutely no fucking way 26 will it be a green year it just cannot happen
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🚨 SOLD ALL MY STOCKS & CRYPTO TODAY
The US will enter a massive recession driven by private credit and real estate
Before 2008, there were many warnings of an impending bubble bursting
Act now or regret it forever
Thesis below:
This whole private credit and real estate situation is starting to feel like a massive game of inaccurate valuations of positions.
We’re looking at two simultaneous bubbles, private equity real estate and private credit that are effectively keeping each other afloat through some of the most creative accounting I’ve seen in years
The core issue with private credit is that these funds are basically grading their own homework
If you look at something like Blue Owl’s OBDC fund, over 94% of their portfolio is sitting in "Level 3" assets. That’s finance-speak for "we decided what this is worth because there’s no public market to tell us otherwise."
You’re forced to just trust their internal models, which usually mark loans at par or even a gain, even when the macro environment is screaming the opposite
But the real red flag is the surge in Payment-in-Kind (PIK) interest. Instead of the borrower paying cash, they just tack the interest onto the principal. It’s essentially a high-interest credit card for companies that can't afford their debt service. While it’s fine for a startup in growth mode, seeing it spike across the board is a massive distress signal. Why would a software company willingly take a 4% PIK on top of a 13% rate unless they were out of options? The funds keep marking these as "healthy" assets, but common sense says they’re going bad
Then you look at the real estate side. Back in 2021, when money was basically free, private equity firms went on a buying spree, bidding up properties to levels that only made sense if rates stayed at zero forever. Now that the stimulus has dried up and rates have stayed higher for longer, the math has completely inverted
These properties are operating at negative cash flow, and values have cratered below the debt levels
I’m hearing more and more that firms are finally ready to just walk away and default because they can't sell without taking a 100% loss on their equity
The scary part is that the pension funds and insurance companies invested in this stuff haven't even realized their money is gone yet because the valuations haven't been marked down to reality
The writing is on the wall, and by the time the "official" reports catch up to the truth, it’s going to be too late to move
✌️
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@MrDamianKing Thailand is a good place for the vibes. Nobody is hustling 24/7 you can live your life as you wish and the locals repect you for that. When I first went to Thailand I felt lighter. I felt free. I think that's the reason it's so good. Vietnam is similar but doesn't have 🇹🇭 effect.
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@hispanicnomad @MrDamianKing Pad Krapao Moo who the fuck is pad thai?
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@MrDamianKing 100%
One can only eat pad thai so many times before hating it forever
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@hispanicnomad Europe is cool but SEA has spoiled me. Over $35 for a night is criminal.
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@guzu_p Sex first thing in the morning will ruin the whole day tbh ✌🏻🤣
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Funnily enough, the only way to keep waking up to this is by going to work.
Women are only loyal to one thing, which is money. So to keep them on your bed, you must keep bringing in the cash and providing or else, she'll be waking up like this in another man's bed who prioritize his work over the coochie.
This is just to tell you there's no pussy worth leaving your hustle for because unlike women, money is forever loyal. Even though she leaves you tomorrow, your money won't.
The more reason you should prioritize the bag.
☔@Whotfismick
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@stevenplace This is good
Sector rotation
Energy stocks taking the lead
SPY 7300 by end of year
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@cmsinvests They can just aquire the tech without burning cash on data centers. Look at the earnings $AAPL is printing while others are burning.
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