On-Chain College

Bitcoin bulls will want to see price maintain above the Mayer Multiple's low level of $74.3K. Failure to do so will rhyme with the last bear market.

Bitcoin's Funding Rates have been negative 5 out of the last 6 days on Binance. This is exactly what you want to see if you're looking for a spot sustained short-term rally. The bulls still have plenty of work to do but this is encouraging in the short-term.

$BTC HTF Update 90% of traders chase trends, yet 90% of the time price is simply ranging. Trends only exist to move the market to a new level of acceptance. So what’s next? 🤔 On the HTF, price is trading back inside a prior zone of strong accumulation, returning to previous balance between prVAH and prVAL - a very decisive area! The key question now is which direction this range will break?? To answer that, we need to determine whether larger participants are accumulating longs or building short exposure. Let's dive a bit deeper 👇 🔸 Accumulation scenario: Sell-side liquidity at the lows gets tested without follow-through. Forced selling and breakout shorts are absorbed by passive buyers building long exposure, and price reclaims the range. Meanwhile, liquidity builds at the highs, which later acts as fuel once accumulation is complete. 🔸 Distribution scenario: The same dynamic appears on the opposite side. Buy-side liquidity at the highs is tested without continuation (building short exposure), while sell-side liquidity at the lows continues to build. 📊 Current read: So far, there are no clear signs of strong accumulation. What we have seen instead is a liquidity test to the upside followed by a clear rejection, which is very bearish for now. A sweep of the 60K low followed by a fast reclaim could be the signal bulls are looking for, and this scenario remains very possible as of now. Bulls must avoid acceptance below prVAL. Sustained trading and volume below that level would increase the likelihood of further downside significantly! Conversely, acceptance above prVAH would significantly increase the probability that the "low is in". For now, a sweep of the 60K low remains the highest-probability scenario. The reaction below the current low will determine whether this is the start of a strong bottom or simply another weak low. I’ll keep you updated as the situation develops. (NFA!)