JV Dubbz

@OnChainCollege Very exciting times. I'm underexposed and hoping for a rejection :-D.

Bitcoin was rejected at the ETF Cost Basis, currently sitting at $82.1K, after being below it since January ‘26.

@Sunshine0071234 @OnChainCollege OMG zetarium?! Please AI not what exchange can I 200x long it?

@_Checkmatey_ Stoked to see this but I suspect we fizzle in the 80s and retest 60k. I'm fully allocated in the hodl and 50% allocated in the swing account though if I'm wrong. Would love nothing more than to burn the bears right now then burn the bulls on a failed breakout. Cheap sats plzzz

The bears absolutely hate this rally. I don't believe we have ever seen anything quite like it in Bitcoin history.

@OnChainCollege I got stopped out for a micro loss. Market has been punishing and sideways grind to down-only really since June of last year. Got plenty of cash though, impatiently waiting

It's important that Bitcoin reclaims $78.5K (True Market Mean). Failure to do so makes this move look eerily similar to the dead cat bounce in June 2022, where price dropped 45% in 3 weeks.

@OnChainCollege Spot on OCC.

Two statements can be true: 1. Bitcoin is oversold and there is fear in the market 2. Price can still drop much lower from here

@OnChainCollege I still have plenty of dry powder but at $65k I gotta get some Sats :-D. I'm a shrimp at the whale party

@OnChainCollege Excellence has become your standard, thank you. I've been buying in the mid to low 60s and the data shows whales are too. Just a massive, massive accumulation right now by large wallets 1k-10k BTC. I too expect one more flush lower but I can't assume that will happen. So I buy.

How Low Will We Go, my latest article, is out now (link below and in bio). Data and analysis, not vibes and predictions.

@silver207141 I hope you're right. This feels like a (temporarily) blow-off top though. I sold it all right at market open locking in nice gains. Didn't expect a literal 30% dump when I posted my strategy to hodl my open profit options all year

Silver has bottomed. Thank God. Time to buy.

@silver207141 A bit nervous seeing my paper gain fluctuate so wildly but your thesis is sound and I've already locked in gains

@silver207141 You're very well researched and I have subscribed. Thank you! Sitting with some deep in the money calls for Jan 2027 that I bought when they were deep OTM I .e. I'm in profit. Already sold off 70% for realized gains so I plan to just sit tight with these calls for 2026 and see.

Silver is almost back to where it was before today's epic slam. This is not regular volatility, even for silver. It's is symptomatic of serious systemic issues. It will end with MUCH higher silver prices.

@silver207141 I see. Thanks for the insights. Just being thorough not trying to be rude. But what evidence is there of all those claims? I am a silver and gold bull and agree the fiat debt world order is going through a reckoning.

@JVDubbz Exchanges on the verge of default. Lost ability to move metal due to new export regulations. Inelasticity of supply.

@nicrypto Metals are ripping and crypto holders are losing money while metals are making massive gains

Never seen the timeline this depressed. Def worse than after FTX collapse. Why?

@OnChainCollege @Shan_Specter It is very much appreciated! Another banger of an article. How sweet it would (will?) be to be allocated for a fabled blowoff move. We SEEM to have survived this Oct 10 crash and aftermath, let's see if this rally matures

@Shan_Specter I appreciate it, Shan. I keep my head down and just grind, try to avoid being salesy, and hope that my hard work is appreciated by the community.

My latest article, What The Bears Are Missing, is out now (link below and in bio). A like and a share is greatly appreciated.

@Darkfost_Coc @OnChainCollege @_checkonchain Agree. This Coinbase shuffling of coins has skewed many a metric

@OnChainCollege @_checkonchain The cost basis is still above 100k, the one you are sharing is still affected by the Coinbase move as they created new UTXO around 84k-85k.

Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is officially under $100K, sitting at $99.5K. I expect the STHCB to be retested during Q1 of 2026

@cryptoquant_com @IT_Tech_PL Yea but a large 800k chunk of BTC was moved by Coinbase last month causing the latest large spike in LTH spending. Overall trend is correct but you need to disclose this caveat

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Unloading Into Strength Again “This 30-day LTH distribution spike is one of the largest in the last 5 years, and these usually show up near macro tops, not bottoms.” – By @IT_Tech_PL

@OnChainCollege @_checkonchain Did you check if some of the whale data is skewed by Coinbase moving 800k BTC a week ago? A lot of LTH metrics from Checkonchain have an anomaly from Coinbase moving a ton of old coins via internal transfers. Just some housekeeping. But onchain it looks like whale LTH activity.

Smaller Bitcoin holders are offloading BTC while Mega Whales, Institutions, and Exchanges are adding BTC. Something something something 'Follow the Smart Money'......

@OnChainCollege @_checkonchain I agree comparing in USD is not fair due to BTC market cap changing. That's why I normalize it by comparing in BTC, not USD. How much BTC was capitulated in previous cycles vs. how many BTC capitulated now. USD values are way different or course.

Be careful comparing profit/loss levels to prior cycles on a true one to one basis. I find it better to compare the type of moves (shift between profit/loss) that happened during last cycle to this cycle instead of the actual values. Reason being is that the profit/loss in USD now will look elevated as market cap grows (vs the past) and the profit/loss in BTC will look muted to the past

The pattern with Bitcoin Profit/Loss that we've been tracking since earlier this year played out exactly as one would expect if this was another local bottom of the cycle. 1) High peaks of realized profit at local tops 2) Series of lower highs in profit as price consolidates/decreases 3) A shift to net realized losses at the start of local bottoms 4) A return to net realized profit after a bottom has had time to develop The key here is that the bottom can take time to form, and during that time, investor sentiment and other dynamics can shift, causing further drop. Flexibility and awareness is crucial right now as this market is entangled in a strong fight between the bears and the bulls.

@OnChainCollege @_checkonchain We had similar profit taking in the start of the 2018 bear but that was a very different market with a true euphoric top and massive gaps in BTC ownership between 5-20k. The 2025 is completely different. Not sure what this means other than we're in uncharted waters this cycle.

@OnChainCollege @_checkonchain This cycle really is different . I can't find a time with comparable realized profits in units of BTC in a capitulation/downtrend. Spikes of 30k realized profit BTC almost always occur into price strength/tops, not capitulation.