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@MatchBettingUS Excellent

@OnChainMind Accumulation phases deserve attention

We’re still in the DCA Channel.

@IT_Tech_PL Green bottom is the CVDD and orange midline is the True Market Mean

@OnChainMind Interesting concept. Is this the percentage of realized price?

📊 Live chart → onchainmind.io/indicators/cos…

@jaysmontoya Totally

@OnChainMind every real move I've seen started from exactly this kind of setup

Bitcoin futures open interest is down 48% from its $95B peak. Much of the excess leverage that built up during the bull market has now been unwound. A much cleaner derivatives backdrop.

Start with the energy needed to mine a single block using the efficiencies of current 2026 ASIC hardware. Convert that into dollars using industrial electricity prices. Then, because the block subsidy pays 3.125 Bitcoin per block, work backwards to the cost of each individual coin. Then apply an overhead multiplier on top of that raw power cost for the ongoing capex, cooling, staff and the rest of the operating stack

@OnChainMind Can you break down the cost?

Bitcoin currently costs roughly $76k to mine. Spot is around $65k. Meaning the margins for the average miner is -13%. Every previous cycle where price traded below production cost eventually became an exceptional accumulation zone, not the beginning of a death spiral.

MSTR shows 240,770 Sats per Share. Common equity actually owns 157,441. $19 billion in senior claims quietly consumes 34% of the stack. SPS tells you what’s in the warehouse. It doesn’t tell you whose name is on it 👇🏼 onchainmind.io/research/you-d…

Bitcoin’s hash rate is down almost 20% from its peak. That has only happened during events like the China mining ban, major bear market capitulations and halvings. Rather than one sharp reset, this has been defined by a slow, persistent bleed.

@AGX189 Exactly

@OnChainMind yep. this is where you buy.. not run.

The Puell Multiple sits around its 17th percentile. Historically, anything below the 20th percentile has coincided with some of Bitcoin’s best long-term buying opportunities. Miner stress has repeatedly become investor opportunity.

@JamesEastonUK Unbelievably

@OnChainMind Sexual.

@OnChainMind Cause a lot of them have pivoted to AI

Daily mining revenue has collapsed from roughly $52M to $26M in less than a year. Yet, the share prices of many miners have surged in that timeframe. If revenue and valuation are moving in opposite directions, we’re no longer analysing these companies as mining businesses.

@natssats Bingo

@OnChainMind Most of them pivoted to AI

Bitcoin miners are earning 50% less than a year ago, yet their stocks are up as much as 417%. The market has stopped pricing them on Bitcoin entirely. Miners are capitulating right now, and history is fairly clear about what usually follows👇🏼

This chart visualises Bitcoin’s entire mining history as a tree stump. Each ring represents a difficulty adjustment, with colour showing miner profitability, ring thickness showing hashrate growth. Now look at the outer edge. This Epoch (#444) saw a 5% difficulty reduction. Mining now costs around $76K per BTC while price sits near $66K, leaving many miners underwater.

@Alex_Luxiano Yeah I’d agree with that. Unless a similar catalyst occurs, there’s no reason we should

Such trend lines are arbitrary, but it still make sense if no major catalyst occurs. The previous cycle had two major liquidity crunch events: Terra Luna and FTX. Especially FTX was brutal, when people lost access to their funds for years. That’s why the drawdown went below the trend line, IMHO.

Every bear market has seen diminishing drawdowns from the True Market Mean. This cycle reached 21% below before recovering to around 15% below today. The question is simple: is the era of diminishing drawdowns continuing, or is one final flush still to come?