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OneFutureofMany
6.8K posts
OneFutureofMany
@OneFutureOfMany
Investigating the Many Potential Futures. Business owner, parent, coach.
Colorado, USA Katılım Aralık 2011
102 Takip Edilen104 Takipçiler
@tylershez @mcrs987 This circle curves just in front of the flap.
Suspect it’s just heating discolouration from plasma sneaking by the front flap.
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Can anyone explain why the dorsal side of starships payload bay seems to be buckled on landing? This seems like a major blocker for reuse.
@mcrs987
Goose@megagoose11
Both the vehicle and the engine plume are so clean it actually looks like a render
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Are you willing to discuss what you mean by “propagating failure”? If you mean that a single engine out might trigger 2-3 more, then yes sure, but it also seems that if engine-out causes multiple failures that you want a highly redundant system… one that can operate with many engines out.
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Starship has a basic engineering design flaw that has to do with probability calculations.
Failure risk tradeoffs between these two risks:
single engine failure and
fratricidal propagating engine failure
And starship has a suboptimal design.
1/n
TheSpaceEngineer@mcrs987
Color-coding the engine config according to startup/shutdown sequences REALLY shows the impact of that single engine on the entire booster. 3 other engines failed to fully light before the energetic event.
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@streever @grok @fawfulfan What about rural living is better, from a resource capture and minimization of costs for infrastructure per capita?
If Grok is correct here, it’s purely a people/sq mi issue (density) with little else in the math unless there is something like a land value tax.
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@OneFutureOfMany @grok @fawfulfan Yes, suburbs that are becoming dense may be able to address ponzi issue - especially if they get as dense as a city. Modern infrastructure (plumbing, electric, roads) is incredibly expensive. Rural living isn't ponzi when it's actually rural, but US people don't live that way now
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The urban core generates almost all of a typical U.S. city's tax revenue but most of it goes to fund roads, sewer lines, power lines et al in suburbs.
If suburbs paid for themselves, rather than leaching off the city, I think a lot more people would be live and let live on this.
Richie Rich@Atomic_Ferret
@Euthenos_ Rural people and suburbanites do not care one bit abt how city people choose to live. You do you. Urban collectivists make it their life’s mission to ensure everyone lives exactly like they do.
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Said simply, I think a 33 engine stack may be able to tolerate a 5-engine-out failure rate.
So re-do your data with thresholds like that in mind.
Say one failure for every 6 engines is survivable.
In a 1% failure rate, the odds of having 2/9 fail is about 1/300.
In a 1% failure rate, the independent odds of having 7/33 fail is 1/217,000,000
Obviously failures aren’t always independent, but this is a huge flaw in your data.
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Where did this chart come from?
The jump in success appears to be when the number of engines starts to allow a single engine-out failure to still result in a successful mission.
But why don’t you have similar jumps when a 2-engine or 3-engine-out failure is successful?
Did you neglect this when making the chart?
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@Noremac_Ma_i @RadioMcLean @thehorizon2b2t Keep in mind that this flood happened in “40 days and nights” from rain….
And then the ark landed on the top of a 17,000 ft high peak in Turkey.
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No? What? A claim that a flood came on rapidly within the last 10k years is absurd. On its face.
Could a planet have once been covered in water? And then lost some of that water over millions of years of it escaping to space? Yeah actually.
But in a single human lifetime? That’s a joke.
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is there a scientific reason as to why earths continents look so much prettier than every other "what if x planet had water" simulation
Fermat's Library@fermatslibrary
Here's a map of Mars if, like Earth, it were covered by water on 71% of its surface.
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Huh? How did the arc float over to the top of mount Ararat (17,000 ft high) and end there as claimed in Gen 8:4?
That’s up in Turkey and it’s almost 17,000 ft above sea level.
In the ancient Aramaic tradition, conveniently, that mountain was the highest known of by the average person. So when they wanted a myth about something really really tall, that’s the one they would have chosen.
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@Noremac_Ma_i @RadioMcLean @thehorizon2b2t not the whole Earth but definitely the four rivers of paradise
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@kat_from_eu @PebMet1 @SpaceX Great point.
I walked within 300 feet of a fully stacked starship less than 20 hours before a launch.
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This seems very myopic.
Is it your claim that reusability is a myth or similar?
Do you believe that fully expending rockets (especially rockets with $130m (each) rocket engines and “almost too dangers for man rating” SRBs is the best path forward?
I’m extremely skeptical. A lot of the engineering decisions were driven by political pork projects to keep factories in various southern states from having to retool.
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@iHeartPowder @SpaceX IMO, SLS is based on let's do this the best way possible whereas Starship appears to me, let's do it the flashiest way possible. It is only my opinion.
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@Matt_S_Britton What is innocent? Is it innocent when a Canadian judge says the terms “fully exonerated”? Because that’s what happened.
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Carter Hart is a rapist. acquitted doesnt mean innocent.
lilia™@allegedlyagirl
Carter Hart is a rapist
Châteauguay, Québec 🇨🇦 English
@HealthRanger Is this intentionally dumb? Please tell me it’s engagement bait.
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Why are they cheering? Do they realize that if it blows up, you can't reuse it?
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
SpaceX's Starship rocket just successfully performed a flip maneuver and precisely splashed down on target in the Indian Ocean next to a buoy with @Starlink on it. The SpaceX team ends the stream with a "USA! USA! USA!" chant 🇺🇸
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Frankly, SuperHeavy COULD do that if that was the design goal. Plop a dragon in this booster and it could make it.
But it’s not. The design goal is a fully reusable orbital stack. Engine relights, boost back burns, orbital re-entry without ablative (disposable) shields.
This is all MUCH harder.
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@PaulWescot @HughGriffin2 What you’re talking NASA went to the fucking moon
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"the test was successful tho"
Could you imagine if a government run space program used this excuse whenever they set a gigantic pile of money on fire
Chris Combs (iterative design enjoyer)@DrChrisCombs
THE STARSHIP PROGRAM EXCITEMENT GUARANTEED
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@TmiErektor @HughGriffin2 Starship has never, will never and can never land on a barge. It’s not been a thing, it was never planned to be a thing and will never be a thing.
See just saying random shit like it sounds smart is such a huge problem on social media.
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@HughGriffin2 I think they stopped landing on floating barges just so they can call explosion a success more easily.
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@HughGriffin2 Wait… this is the top stage of an orbital rocket.
EVERY SINGLE TOP STAGE EVER LAUNCHED was intentionally destroyed (except the shuttle, which was only “damaged beyond reuse” each flight and required $1.6 billion in refurbishment for each flight)
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@Spaceguy5 @OneFutureOfMany Space x last year delivered 80% mass to orbit of the world!! . And it was 60 years behind nasa. If you think these people are just gonna settle in and kick rocks I don’t know what to tell ya. Waters wet friend . I’m sure you could think of an argument for that as well.
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This is one of the dumbest takes I've ever seen. The starship test flight didn't even work. Multiple engines failed and it was clear that it under performed again because Max Q was late.
Space Shuttle, ISS, Orion, Mars rovers, etc are significantly more spectacular
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis
Starship was the greatest thing humanity ever built without AI assistance. It will be the last. Everything after this will be designed with AI. The era of human-only engineering is over.
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@librab103 @BadIdeaGuyJohn1 @DrChrisCombs What does that MEAN? Do you think Boeing is “contributing to the industry” in the way you’re implying when they built the SLS?
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@BadIdeaGuyJohn1 @DrChrisCombs So no, no contributions to the industry?
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But does spacex actually invest R&D $ towards long-range basic science that would enable better tiles? (No.)
They are waiting for NASA and/or academics to deus ex machina the problem for them
Tom@The_Shoulderbag
@DrChrisCombs Let me offer a slightly different perspective. I think it’s safe to say that materials and tiles will improve if given time and $. What actually matters is: A. Does starship have the right architecture B. Does Spacex have the capital and patience for long term iteration
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@BrandonJoe604 @DrChrisCombs China will just steal it and not share back. Thats been their pattern thus far in most industrial use.
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@DrChrisCombs if SpaceX is for all humanity maybe they can joint venture with China?
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@Opkegger1 @DrChrisCombs They don’t want ablative tiles. They want a 100-300x reusable tile.
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I solved the shield a year ago, Applied for my SBIR grant. The issue is Ablation, mine is Armoured and a min mass reduction per tile of 5%! You’re not wrong they’re waiting on materials science guys like me to solve it for them! Sent a proposal but my guess is they would rather steal it than pay!
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@DrChrisCombs Evidence here? Or is this just a breathless claim?
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