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🆓 OWS NBA Props POTD - Free Bet of the Day 🤑 Plenty of places give out picks. We focus on process - that’s the difference. Royce O'Neale (PHX) UNDER 17.5 PRA 🔄Like and Retweet - If the full card goes perfect we give away a free sub to our Props Package (Yesterday's Winner at Bottom) Royce is coming off a huge game but that was against a Milwaukee defense that plays right into his strengths as they are allowing the most catch and shoot attempts in the league. Nearly half (48%) of Royce’s offensive output comes from spot ups. Now Royce gets a tougher matchup with the Pacers who’s one defensive strength is taking away spot up attempts. The Pacers allow the lowest frequency of catch and shoot attempts to go along with the 3rd fewest made FGs. Furthermore, 64% of Royce’s made FGs come from above the break 3s, where the Pacers are the #1 ranked defense in defending that area. There is some blowout potential here in a fairly low total game and we don’t expect Royce to be a featured part of the possible blowout. Congrats to @ross_mcwhorter for winning a free week of our NBA Props Package! We'll DM you with more info. Looking for all of our Props? 👀 Link in Bio 🔗

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THE END AROUND — SUPER BOWL Patriots (21) at Seahawks (25.5) This is it... Let's Dive In 👇 OVERVIEW Both teams enter healthy, with only LB Robert Spillane (ankle) missing practice for New England. Sam Darnold was limited mid-week but is expected to be full go. This game pits two efficient offenses against two defenses that specialize in removing explosive plays, particularly through the air. Drake Maye has attempted just 29, 27, and 21 passes in New England’s three playoff wins — a clear signal of how the Patriots prefer to win. That profile is unlikely to hold against a Seattle offense ranked second in scoring and seventh in total offense. If the Seahawks get out early, Maye’s volume should climb meaningfully. Both defenses finished top-tier in limiting passing explosives, and both were elite at suppressing running back touchdowns. The Seahawks and Patriots combined to allow just 17 rushing TDs all season. This is a slate where efficiency and touchdowns matter more than raw volume. HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN New England’s postseason run has been built on defense and game control. They’ve beaten three top-10 defenses while allowing just 8.7 points per game, but all three opponents featured compromised or inefficient offenses. Seattle does not. Expect the Patriots to start run-balanced, but remain far more flexible than in previous playoff games. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly turned into a near-workhorse, playing 62%, 63%, and 94% of snaps with 14, 20, and 27 opportunities. Given Seattle’s pressure rate (6th-highest), Stevenson’s pass-blocking likely keeps him firmly ahead of TreVeyon Henderson again, even in a difficult rushing matchup. The wide receiver rotation remains a problem for DFS certainty. No Patriots pass-catcher outside of Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry is guaranteed consistent routes. Diggs remains the only receiver with a slate-breaking ceiling due to his hybrid alignment and red-zone role. Henry likely needs a touchdown to matter. Boutte’s path comes via chunk gains, not volume. If New England is competitive into the second half, it will almost certainly be through defense, pressure, and forcing Seattle into uncomfortable downs rather than offensive fireworks. HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN Seattle remains a run-leaning team by design, not inefficiency. They finished bottom-five in pass rate over expectation while ranking second in yards per pass attempt. Their defense allows them to dictate tempo, but they are fully capable of expanding the offense when pushed. Kenneth Walker retains strong touchdown equity and handled all goal-line work last week, but the backfield remains split in function. Walker profiles for 15–18 carries, while George Holani is the change-of-pace and two-minute back. Holani becomes far more interesting in builds that assume New England forces volume and tempo. The receiving hierarchy is clearer than it appears. JSN remains the focal point, but Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed are closer in route participation than public perception suggests, especially against five-defensive-back looks — something New England has leaned on heavily in the playoffs. Shaheed’s slot usage and efficiency against those looks stand out as a potential leverage point, particularly if JSN draws heavier red-zone attention. Seattle tight ends remain largely inline and situational. Elijah Arroyo’s activation bears monitoring, but expectations should remain muted unless roles change dramatically. LIKELIEST GAME FLOW Seattle controls the highest percentage of outcomes. Vegas assigns them roughly a two-thirds win probability, and their ability to win through multiple scripts separates them in this matchup. For New England to flip the slate, it likely requires defensive disruption — turnovers, short fields, or forcing Seattle out of their preferred run-balanced approach. That makes the Patriots defense a viable consideration in tributary game environments. Absent chaos, this game profiles as methodical, efficient, and touchdown-driven, with fewer total plays than the total might suggest. The Super Bowl slate will not be won by chasing thin volume — it will be won by correctly identifying where touchdowns concentrate when efficiency tightens.

NBA Daily 4-0, +4 Units ANOTHER SWEEP🧹 ANOTHER FREE OWS PROPS SUB 🔥 ✅Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) UNDER 18.5 PR -106 ✅Davion Mitchell (MIA) UNDER 19.5 PRA -122 ✅Justin Champagnie (WAS) UNDER 13.5 PR -120 ✅Moses Moody (GSW) UNDER 19.5 PRA -102 NBA Season 195-156, +21.6 Units We might need a heat check. In the last 3 slates we've put out picks we've had a 5-0 and a 4-0 sweep. Our guys are in their prime and you won't want to miss out👀 Link in bio to join the OWS Fam

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🆓 OWS NBA Props POTD - Free Bet of the Day 🤑 Plenty of places give out picks. We focus on process - that’s the difference. Nic Claxton (BKN) OVER 19.5 PR -114 FD Good to -120 🔄Like and Retweet and if the full card goes perfect we give away a free sub (Yesterday's Winner at the Bottom) Claxton draws one of the more appealing matchups for big men who do plenty of scoring near the basket in that of the Jazz's short-handed and permeable interior defense. Utah will once again be without Jusuf Nurkic and Kevin Love due to illness Friday, leaving center duties primarily in the hands of Kyle Filipowski. The Jazz have allowed the second-most points (24.6) and fourth-most rebounds (16.1) to centers in the last 15, with Nurkic sitting out seven of those games. Meanwhile, the Jazz also rank just outside the bottom 10 of the league in points in the paint allowed per home game (52.2), while Claxton is scoring 76.4% of his points in that part of the floor. Claxton is also converting 51.2% of his 14.1 rebounding chances over the last 10 games, equating to 7.2 rebounds per outing during that span. The Jazz could well give that number a boost, considering they're ranked in the bottom 10 in both offensive reb % allowed at home for the season (28.0) and overall defensive reb % allowed in the last 3 games (77.9). Claxton is averaging the second-highest number of off. reb. of his career (2.6) while Utah is also conceding the second-highest two-point shooting % (58.2) of any team on its home floor. Last but certainly worth mentioning is the fact both Michael Porter (rest) and Noah Clowney (back) could sit Friday, and Claxton is averaging 22.6 PR per 36 with both players off the floor. Congrats to @ChilenSensation for winning for the Free OWS Props Sub for our perfect card yesterday 🔥 Looking for all of our Props? 👀 Link in Bio 🔗

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Get the brooms ladies and gentlemen... We did it again 🧹🧹🧹 NBA Daily 5-0, + 5 Units ✅ Bam Adebayo (MIA) OVER 18.5 Points -108 ✅Mark Williams (PHX) UNDER 19.5 PR -118 ✅Jamal Murray (DEN) UNDER 39.5 PRA -121 ✅Myles Turner (MIL) OVER 21.5 PR -121 ✅Matas Buzelis (CHI) OVER 22.5 PRA -122 NBA Season 190-154, +18.9 Units Don't miss our POTD Post for the free OWS Props Giveaway👀 10-2 over the last two days🔥 This doesn’t happen by accident. Hours of work. Relentless process. Results take care of themselves. 🧠🔥

🚨NFC CHAMPIONSHIP DFS SHOWDOWN CHALK Currently Projecting for 20%+ Ownership TOTAL // CAPTAIN ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA – 69% // 23% ▫️KENNETH WALKER III – 68% // 21% ▫️PUKA NACUA – 58% // 19% ▫️SAM DARNOLD – 46% // 5% ▫️MATTHEW STAFFORD – 41% // 5% ▫️COLBY PARKINSON – 34% // 3% ▫️COOPER KUPP – 33% // 3% ▫️AJ BARNER – 30% // 2% ▫️DAVANTE ADAMS – 28% // 5% ▫️HARRISON MEVIS – 27% // 2% ▫️JASON MYERS – 24% // 1% ▫️KYREN WILLIAMS – 21% // 4%

🚨AFC CHAMPIONSHIP DFS SHOWDOWN CHALK Currently Projecting for 20%+ Ownership TOTAL // CAPTAIN ▫️DRAKE MAYE – 85% // 31% ▫️JARRETT STIDHAM – 60% // 10% ▫️RJ HARVEY – 42% // 7% ▫️RHAMONDRE STEVENSON – 41% // 8% ▫️COURTLAND SUTTON – 40% // 8% ▫️STEFON DIGGS – 39% // 8% ▫️HUNTER HENRY – 34% // 5% ▫️ANDY BORREGALES – 32% // 3% ▫️BRONCOS DST – 28% // 3% ▫️PAT BRYANT – 25% // 4% ▫️WIL LUTZ – 24% // 2% ▫️KAYSHON BOUTTE – 20% // 3%

Two games. One optimal range. Zero room to hide. This is what the Chalk Build looks like in the Conference Championships: RB: Kenneth Walker III WR: JSN/Puka TE: Hunter Henry This slate is about one thing: How close are you to optimal — and where are you willing to deviate? With only two games, outlier production becomes rarer. But variance doesn’t disappear. It concentrates. And the smallest deviations create the largest leverage. WHAT CHANGES ON A TWO-GAME SLATE More games = more paths to ceiling. Fewer games = fewer paths — but higher impact when variance hits. Blown coverages. Injuries. Broken plays. “Oh shit” moments. They don’t happen often —but when they do on a slate this small, they decide everything. That’s why ownership matters differently here. Not as something to avoid, but as something to pressure test. THE OWNERSHIP INFLECTION POINT Kenneth Walker is the best point-per-dollar play on the slate. No debate. But extreme ownership creates a decision point — not an auto-click. When one player approaches slate-breaking ownership, your edge comes from how often and where you choose to say no. You don’t need to fade him everywhere. But you absolutely need builds that survive if he fails. Looking for more? 👀 @HilowFF's Full End Around is live now at OneWeekSeason in The Scroll

XANDAMERE'S SHOWDOWN SCRIPT PATRIOTS @ BRONCOS PATRIOTS RUNNING BACKS ▫️Big gap in usage between Rhamondre & TreVeyon in the playoffs due to the former’s better pass blocking. ▫️Henderson is still in play as a (highly) contrarian option at likely very low ownership. PATRIOTS RECEIVERS ▫️Boutte probably sees the most of Surtain. ▫️Diggs looks reasonably priced and in a nice spot. ▫️Henry’s solid and Douglas is an interesting punt on the Pats due to his outstanding metrics vs. man coverage. BRONCOS RECEIVERS ▫️Pat Bryant returning is low key a big deal. ▫️If Franklin plays, that largely nukes Mims… ▫️There is at least some possibility that Mims’ outstanding performance last game earns him some more work. JARRETT STIDHAM ▫️Rookie & backup QBs have a tendency to lock onto first reads (likely Sutton) and tight ends (Engram). ▫️Stidham is a capable backup. But he’s still a backup QB making his first start of the year in a high pressure playoff game against a good defense. ▫️There’s a non-zero possibility that Denver’s offense falls completely flat here, and I want some Pats onslaughts in my portfolio. SHOWDOWN RULES ▫️As always, at most 2 kickers + DSTs ▫️If captaining a pass catcher, I would include their QB – sometimes you can get away from that role, and it’s certainly viable, but given pricing (only 2 guys at $10k+), it’s pretty easy to fit the QBs when captaining a pass catcher ▫️If captaining a QB, include at least 2 of their pass catchers ▫️At most 1 of McLaughlin and Badie ▫️At most 1 Broncos TE ▫️At most 2 of the non-Sutton Broncos WRs (Bryant/Mims/Humphrey, or Bryant/Mims/Franklin if he plays) ▫️At most 1 of Stevenson and Henderson unless building Pats onslaughts ▫️At most 1 Hollins & Williams (or Williams & Chism if Hollins ends up missing) Showdown ownership, sims, and both of @xandamere's Showdown notes are live at OneWeekSeason

XANDAMERE'S SHOWDOWN SCRIPT RAMS @ SEAHAWKS SAM DARNOLD ▫️Has really struggle against good defenses. He’s thrown 6 picks in two games against the Rams this year. ▫️The Seahawks are favored, and they’re obviously a very good team, but would it really shock anyone if “bad Darnold” showed up here? He struggles against pressure and the Rams generate a lot of pressure… COOPER KUPP ▫️He keeps grabbing tons of ownership due to high median projections. But his ceiling is awful. He’s only reached double-digit DK points a handful of times. ▫️Doesn’t mean he can’t, but at expected very high ownership, there’s merit to avoiding him. SEATTLE RUNNING BACKS ▫️George Holani's projection is very modest, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him get more work than most people are expecting. ▫️Seattle has very stubbornly refused to give Kenneth Walker significant workloads all season long, despite him being a much, much better runner than Zach Charbonnet. ▫️Speaking of Walker, he’s going to carry a metric ton of ownership. He’s a fine play. I’d rather play JSN and Puka, personally. BLAKE CORUM ▫️Disappeared last game. I don’t know why. RAMS TIGHT ENDS ▫️The Rams have run multi-TE sets all season long. Then, in the last game, they stopped and went heavy with 11 personnel, which they have barely used all season long. ▫️Is this sticky? I don’t know, but my guess is it was something opponent-specific. ▫️Projections don’t really understand that, though which means Tyler Higbee and Terrance Ferguson could both end up being underprojected if the Rams go back to their normal multi-TE heavy ways. RULES FOR SHOWDOWN ▫️As always, at most 2 kickers + DSTs ▫️If captaining a pass catcher, give a boost to their QB. Unlike the NE/DEN game, I think it’s more viable here to have a captain pass catcher without their QB. Both primary WR1s have huge target shares and are capable of putting up 30+ DK points while only scoring 0-1 TDs, which doesn’t necessarily pull their QB along with them. They’re also very expensive, which raises the chance of a naked WR lineup being optimal. ▫️If captaining a QB, include at least 2 of their pass catchers. ▫️At most 2 Rams TEs ▫️At most 1 of Mumpfield and Whittington ▫️At most 1 of Higbee and Whittington ▫️At most 1 of Jones and Holani Showdown ownership, sims, and both of @xandamere's Showdown notes are live at OneWeekSeason

THE DEUCE — 2-GAME SLATE STRATEGY Two games. Four quarterbacks. Thin margins everywhere. Understanding how these teams want to win is everything. TEAM OVERVIEWS PATRIOTS New England advanced through the playoffs by surviving ugly games. While last week’s 28-point output looks fine on the surface, the underlying performance was shaky. They averaged just 3.9 yards per play, turned the ball over three times, and allowed five sacks against Houston’s defense. This week does not get easier. Denver presents another elite down-to-down defense, with a strong run unit and one of the league’s better secondaries. The Patriots are unlikely to suddenly become efficient — instead, they’ll need to win through field position, defense, and selective aggression. BRONCOS Denver survived an overtime thriller against Buffalo, benefitting from timely calls and uncharacteristic Bills mistakes. That win came at a steep cost: Bo Nix is out for the season with a broken ankle. Veteran Jarrett Stidham steps in for Denver’s first AFC Championship appearance since 2015. The Patriots defense has been elite this postseason, allowing just 3.4 yards per play across two playoff games. Sean Payton will need to be precise and creative to keep Stidham protected and functional. RAMS The Rams have been one of the league’s best offenses all season, but have played conservatively through two playoff wins. Carolina and Chicago both managed to limit explosive plays, and both games were decided by just a field goal. Los Angeles is too strong to get blown out — they are 14–5 and have held a 4th-quarter lead or tie in all five losses. At the same time, they are unlikely to run away from a very good Seattle team at home. Expect another tight, high-leverage game decided late. SEAHAWKS Seattle cruised past a depleted 49ers team, but lost Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL. Throughout the season, Seattle’s offense thrived on low-volume, high-efficiency passing while leaning on their RB duo. Without Charbonnet, I don’t expect Kenneth Walker III to suddenly see 30+ touches, nor do I expect Seattle to heavily rotate backups. This sets up a scenario where Seattle’s pass rate spikes, making them one of the most intriguing teams to build around on this slate. QB THOUGHTS On a two-game slate, four quarterbacks means a natural baseline of 25% ownership per QB. Occasionally one option pushes toward 50% as clear chalk, or one sinks below 10% as an obvious fade. This slate likely lands in the middle: Expect relatively flat ownership, with all four QBs falling somewhere in the 15–35% range. Stafford & Maye These two are likely to carry the highest ownership, despite facing two of the league’s strongest pass defenses. That’s largely a function of loose pricing, which makes it easy to click the highest median projections without sacrificing elsewhere. Rushing Equity Matters On small slates, QB rushing can quietly decide tournaments. Stafford: Near-zero rushing upside Stidham: Near-zero rushing upside Darnold: Slight rushing potential Maye: Clear leader in rushing ceiling Maye can break a slate with 30–40 rushing yards and a TD, even if the passing efficiency isn’t elite. Stidham can also be part of a winning roster without dragging along multiple teammates due to his salary and Denver’s distributed usage. Meanwhile, Stafford and Darnold are best approached through 2–3 man stacks, where their ceiling is tied directly to concentrated team production. Want more for the two-game slate? @mjohnson_86's Full Two-Game Slate write up, The Deuce is live now at OneWeekSeason🔥

🚨NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP 2-GAME DFS CHALK Currently Projecting for 35%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️KENNETH WALKER III – 86% ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA – 75% ▫️PUKA NACUA – 65% ▫️RHAMONDRE STEVENSON – 47% ▫️DAVANTE ADAMS – 43% ▫️RJ HARVEY – 42% ▫️HUNTER HENRY – 40% ▫️DRAKE MAYE – 38% ▫️STEFON DIGGS – 37% ▫️KYREN WILLIAMS – 36% ▫️BRONCOS – 35% FANDUEL ▫️KENNETH WALKER III – 80% ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA – 60% ▫️RJ HARVEY – 55% ▫️RHAMONDRE STEVENSON – 48% ▫️HUNTER HENRY – 47% ▫️PUKA NACUA – 47% ▫️DRAKE MAYE – 40% ▫️STEFON DIGGS – 39% ▫️PAT BRYANT – 39%