Option Omega

@options_insight That was interesting hearing you talk about the impact of the 2003 war during our talk!

My first proper options book was the Dutch index (AEX), in March 2003, going into the Iraq war. I learned something in one day that no textbook had mentioned. I was bearish. Of course I was bearish. War is coming, war is bad for stocks, that's how it goes in your head when you're a couple of years into the industry. Then the invasion actually started and the market ripped about 12% in a single day. I remember genuinely not understanding what I was looking at. The senior guys on the desk were completely relaxed about it. That's what happens in wars, they said. The market sells off on the fear of it, and the moment they actually go in, it rips. The saving grace was that I'd inherited the book long a load of gamma, and all I was doing was managing that gamma. When the market moves 12% in a day and you're long gamma, it's quite hard not to make money. So my first real lesson arrived with a profit attached, which is a lucky way to learn it. "Better lucky than good" as they say. What stuck with me was the gap between my view and my position. My view was wrong and it barely mattered, because the position was long the move rather than long the direction. Twenty-odd years later I still think that's a big part of the job. Finding trades that don't kill you when you're wrong and in some outlier scenarios might even make you money!

With leverage back in the headlines this week, @multistratmark breaks down what he actually risks per trade managing real money.

From Wall Street Bets–style options to a firm philosophy on risk management — Tom Lei talks fixed-width spreads, debit trades, and the two rules his mentor drilled into him. A different approach to risk than most retail options traders take. Full video Saturday

0DTE, Gamma, and the Big Short with @options_insight . Full video on YT.

Great Convo with @options_insight

@options_insight has traded index volatility for 25 years — Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch, Citi... is the market shaking out traders more in 2026 for 0 DTE SPX? Full video on YT.

@xuhayle @options_insight Nope

@OptionOmega @options_insight Interesting theory do you sell your strategy data of your clients to market makers?

One of the cleanest ways you'll hear anyone explain the difference between trading stocks and trading options with @options_insight

I asked former a Citi vol desk head what he thinks of Black-Scholes for 0DTE. We chatted with @options_insight and covered SPX 0 day, Greeks and much more. Full video out tomorrow!

A single backtest tests a configuration. The new optimizer can backtest up to 500 trade ideas at once.

"What does a 20 delta mean? In English?" @Sheridanoptions there's a 20% probability the index finishes below that strike. Lower delta = better odds, less credit. Higher delta = more credit, worse odds.

This trade won 147 times out of 567. It only has 26% win rate, but the backtest is profitable — a few outsized winners pay for years of small losses. The hard part isn't the trade. It's not turning it off during month five of losing.

@Sheridanoptions on why high IV isn't automatically a green light for iron condors. During COVID, vol went 20 → 30 → 40 → 50 → 60+ He watches high vol AND some stability. Wait for the two-way action. Full breakdown in Part 1 of his iron condor series

The Navigation Trading Show x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Fix My Backtest: With Mark Anderson x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Across 4+ years of data, this 0DTE trade won about two out of three times — and the entire signal is three things that Matt covers here. That's it. Bob's your uncle. This is one of many variations (check the full video!) youtu.be/2HEg0pz3Z_k

@1WhiteTruck youtu.be/0BiBkhPGUEM

@1WhiteTruck Better than it used to be, nowhere near what SPY and SPX is.

We get asked frequently about smaller trades. This concept takes a more expensive $SPX backtest and breaks it down on $XSP. The XSP version is ~$300. Same index, same concept, 1/10th the size — (the idea being that one max loss doesn't wreck the account).