Outcast

Saw this article today on the Manono North Deposit and just couldn’t help myself but to make comment. I'll also give my opinion on the deposit as I've had a few people ask for it. Firstly, the deposit was stolen from AVZ shareholders. I hope AVZ holders get what they deserve for this deposit and it's absolutely pathetic by the Australian government to sit idle. Lots of hard earned Aussie dollars were put into exploring and developing the orebody and the government stays silent? This orebody needed to stay under the one company in order for it to achieve its maximum potential. Zijin gained control of what is now known as Manono North which predominantly consists of the The Carriere de l’Este Pegmatite, often referenced as the CDL Pegmatite. I do think it's the inferior part of the orebody. It's lower grade than the Roche Dure Pegmatite (not in Zijin's control and to the south) and from an early stage, it seems its metallurgy wont be as good. Personally I think splitting the deposit up was also a technical mistake. I think it was important from a metallurgy point of view to keep the both the north and south together. The article states that the Manono North mine will produce up to 130,000 tonnes of LCE per year. I’d argue it won’t be anywhere even close to this. 40.4/(0.82*6) = 8.2 tonnes of SC6 per tonne of LCE. 130,000 * 8.2 = 1.06 million tonnes of SC6. 6/(1.58*0.7) = 5.43 tonnes of 1.58% ore needed per tonne of SC6. I’ve used a very generous recovery rate of 70% and you’ll see why it's generous later. 1.06million tonnes * 5.43 = 5.75Mtpa This seems doable but the problem is, I don’t think Manono North is going to produce SC6 looking at historical met work and its grade. I think Manono will join the same club as LTR, PLS, MIN, in terms of recoveries. It’s not Greenbushes. I think it will produce somewhere around SC5.2. 40.4/(0.82*5.2) = 9.47 tonnes of SC5.2 needed per tonne of LCE. It becomes very different when you plug this in. So they are going to need far more than the 850kt of concentrate as stated within the article to produce those 130kt of LCE. At the time Zijin took control of the north section, the resource was entirely inferred. This is understandable given the lack of drillholes and met work that had been undertaken (AVZ were mainly focusing on the south and doing a great job). I could be mistaken, but I haven’t seen anything via satellite (generally signs of drillholes are easily identifiable) that suggest Zijin has done further work to progress the deposit from Inferred to indicated or measured. So there's a decent chance that the proper work hasn't gone into understanding CDL and it's getting rushed. One thing that is important to understand is that size of the deposit just one of the many criteria which should be used to rank a deposit. If the deposit is larger than 90-100Mt, I’d say it gets less and less important. Grade and metallurgy become king. So, Manono North is large, but lets talk about its grade and metallurgy. I dug into historical metallurgy testwork undertaken on the CDL pegmatite and it was average. I can’t find any flotation testwork done on CDL specifically, but the DMS testwork gave 55% recoveries for 5.6mm size and 66% for 3.35mm size. But here's the issue, the head grade used in these tests was 2.37% Li2O. The average grade of the deposit is 1.58% Li2O … What happens if you plug in the average grade of the deposit? So that rules out it being purely a DMS deposit and flotation will be required. Here’s some info from an old post on DMS and flotation from an older post of mine: x.com/sparkes_dwayne… So they’ll need to float it which means higher CAPEX and OPEX. There is some flotation test work done on the pegmatite to the south so I’ll use that as a bit of a guide (It’s a rough guide as metallurgy can change rapidly over 50 meters let alone kms). It came in at 81.5%. Lab work always comes in higher. Every single time. Also it's important to note that this test work was done on a higher grade pegmatite than CDL. One example which is comparable from a testwork and grade point of view is Kathleen Valley. Manono south's testwork for flotation comes in at almost identical to how Kathleen valley’s (whole of ore flotation not DMS + flotation) did. 81.5% vs 81%. Liontown’s recovery is now at ~63% for SC5.2, 18% less than what the test work gave and not for SC6 as their test work suggested. Just an example how lab tests don't equal what actually happens in practice. Summary: So in my opinion, Manono North will be somewhat similar to another Kathleen valley or Wodgina coming online. It's grade is somewhat above average @ 1.58% and I'd say its metallurgy is average. Yes it's large, but above 90-100Mt, this becomes less important. So overall a good deposit, but it's no Greenbushes and i don't believe it will spit out the tonnes as what many are suggesting. In order to get those tonnes you're going to need an extremely large capex and i don't think Zijin will invest that much given the nature as to how they got the deposit and also the jurisdiction (unstable). Those are my thoughts on the Manono North Deposit. Cheers for reading.

The lithium mine Zijin Mining plans to open this year in the Democratic Republic of Congo is set to be one of the world’s biggest suppliers of the battery metal bloomberg.com/news/articles/…