Outrader 🐂💎

Any bulls?

@ooloo Momentum to the downside. The new year so far has been a clear trend and easy trading conditions

it's funny to me that among all of the more "respected" 5-6 fig following ct accounts, not one of them suggests the idea to stay in cash and literally do nothing for months on end since we're at the end of a cycle

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a “year off” (or “off year”) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k.

@Asymmetry_Fi 😤😤😤

The Shutdown, The Market Bleed, and the Setup for a Bounce We're 32 days in, knocking on the door of the 35-day record from 2018-19 for this current US gov shutdown. It’s a political failure, but for us in the markets, it’s a mechanistic problem with a fairly predictable aftermath. Here’s a straightforward look at why everything is bleeding, and why I’m watching for a significant risk rally when this finally ends. This shutdown has created three very concrete headwinds that are straight out of the textbook: - The Economic Data Blackout: This is the big one. We're flying blind without jobs, CPI, or PCE data. The Fed is effectively data-dependent with no data. This uncertainty spike forces a re-pricing of risk premia across the board. It’s not a fundamental sell-off; it's a "get me out until I can see again" sell-off. - Market Plumbing is Clogged: With the SEC running on a skeleton crew, the IPO and secondary offering calendar is frozen. This starves the system of primary market activity and new liquidity. When that happens, the first things to get sold are the assets with the most tenuous liquidity profiles - which is often crypto and high-beta growth names. - A Real (if Small) Economic Drag: Furloughed workers and delayed payments to contractors are a direct hit to near-term consumption. The GDP hit is likely in the single-digit billions, but the sentiment damage is larger. The net effect? A classic liquidity-squeeze and risk-off environment. It’s brutal, but it’s also somewhat artificial. I’m operating on the thesis that the resolution will be a bigger catalyst than the shutdown itself. The moment a continuing resolution or budget passes, three things happen in quick succession: - The Cash Flow Switch: Hundreds of thousands of federal employees get their back pay. Contractors get paid. It’s an immediate, lump-sum fiscal injection straight into the economy. - The Information Switch: The data dam breaks. We'll get a deluge of delayed economic reports. The fog of war lifts, the Fed gets its dashboard back, and market uncertainty compresses violently. This is pure fuel for a rally. - The Liquidity Switch: The IPO and secondary issuance window reopens. Underwriters and corporations have deals queued up and ready to go. This resumption of primary market activity is a huge signal that liquidity conditions are normalising. When you combine this with decent seasonal tendencies into December and January, the setup is there for a pronounced risk-on shift. Let's be specific. Crypto isn't just a "risk asset"; it's the canary in the coal mine for global liquidity. It got hit first and hardest because it's the most sensitive to liquidity withdrawal. That exact characteristic is why it should lead the reversal. When liquidity returns, it flows most aggressively into the most oversold and liquidity-sensitive pockets of the market. Watchlist for confirmation: - BTC leads: It’s the market's liquidity barometer. Watch for it to break trend first. - Stablecoin Flows: An increase in aggregate stablecoin market cap is new powder waiting on the sidelines. - Healthy Leverage: A rebuild in open interest and funding rates without going parabolic. It’s frustrating to watch your crypto books get pummelled and chopped up over political gridlock. But this is a liquidity event, not a fundamental one. The mechanisms causing the pain are temporary. Their removal is a known, potent catalyst. The violent snap-back in the most beaten-down, high-beta assets when this ends could be just as sharp as the initial decline. Stay disciplined. The conditions for a mean reversion trade are being set up right now. Guru

@Crypto_Chase Cheers

Reflections on the flash crash (Oct 10 2025) -As a trader/personal growth Intuition, gut feel, and experience are your strongest assets. I KNEW that 121K needed to hold or this market was cooked. I wrote it in the quote tweet below 12 hours before the crash occurred. "BTC has no business giving obvious retests such as 117-115K and it has no business back at 110K, IT WILL CRASH THROUGH IF SO. 121K is the KEY level to rally from. Here and now or it’s a wrap." Reading that, you'd think I made a killing off the flash crash. I shorted once 121K broke and TP'd / longed near 100K because I knew 117-115K wouldn't hold and we'd crash through 110K. But you'd be wrong. While I suffered basically no losses (outside of a typical stop out, long 121k, SL 118K), I did not capitalize on my thesis that the implications of holding 121K were so extreme (as I stated in multiple tweets and in replies to other influencers). I literally said (before the crash), that yesterday was the most important price action of 2025. A ton of talk, but not a ton of action. The lesson here is to act and execute RELENTLESSLY based off strong beliefs and that no price is too far away. Preparation is key and limit orders are an amazing thing. There's a story from Dante about when he really believed in a trade and told Navinder, Nav leaned over and said "do you really like that trade?" And Dante said "yes, it's a really great trade, I really fucking believe in it". Nav leaned over and sent him full clip into the market and said "if you REALLY like it, you need to trade a size like you really like it". Now.. this isn't saying to max lev up every time you believe in a trade. In fact, I'd advise against it. But if we can take one thing from this conversation between two professional traders, it would be that if you really believe in a trade.. if you feel it in your guts.. if you KNOW how extreme the implications are of a level holding or not is.. THEN FUCKING TRADE LIKE IT. It's a financial tragedy (to me), that I did not capitalize with how clearly I understood price. The second 121K failed, I should have shorted, set TP's to sub 105K, and set limit buys sub 105K, because that was my STRONG BELIEF about what was going to happen when 121K broke. And I legit said the words clearly in the quote tweet, I said we'd crash through 110K. SO WHY DIDN'T I TRADE LIKE IT? So much confidence about what price would do, yet so little action. To be fair, I didn't expect it to occur the same day, and that was a miscalculation on my behalf. We haven't seen true flash crashes in like years and I was not prepared. If I woke up today and saw BTC still hovering between 110-117K, I likely would have set limit bids to sub 105K. Alas, I NEED to trust myself more. FUCK what everyone else says. I apologize to you guys, my community, for not having a more concrete psyche and steel trap mind when we needed it most. I received DM's from some of you saying you closed out lev / stabled up after losing 121K, I'm glad I could help some of you, but I wish I was more clear with execution, for ALL of you and for myself. I will do better. I'm going to take some steps soon to reduce the noise around me and really lock in because I know I'm one of the best market readers in the game, but the execution just isn't fully there yet. -As a community/space As ruthless as this may sound, I welcome the flush, and I hope we flush further. CT has become a laughing stock compared to what it once was. People purposely fake PnL (to where they don't care that experienced individuals will call them out) while they gather follows and paint a picture to noobs that ultimately lead to their demise on days like today. Every trencher is making 400K per day, everyone is a millionaire off airdrops, no one ever gets stopped out, large influencers literally deleted tweets of their 115-117k bids since yesterday (yes I went back and looked to see their stop outs, tweets deleted). EVERYONE is doing well and no one is losing, except you (and the very few transparent influencers that remain). That's the picture today's CT presents. A place that was once for sharing trading ideas and supporting each other has turned into constant fake posts, scamming, and insane amounts of noise. You can't short without getting bullied off the platform and you can barely even long. Every position is met with extreme resistance and know it all reply guys, hence the need to reduce noise. Is not reading comments really the only method? I remember Joe Rogan once said he doesn't read comments because most people are just outright wrong and it'd be impossible to correct everyone even if you tried. Maybe when it comes to trading posts, I'll mostly stay off the comments. I am hoping this flush cleansed the space a little, but reality is I doubt it. The urge to gamble is simply too strong and everyone and more will find their way back. -On price action It was a decently nasty move for sure. Bulls want 108K to hold now, with that wick simply being an anomaly. ETH tagged 3.4K again, a nice Daily level on the chart. I wonder if Tom Lee's quant saw it coming (his trade invalidated btw, price never tagged 5.1k before crashing way past 4k). Just wanted to put that out there since it was such a spectacle at the time and I got shit on relentlessly for not following the herd. Hopefully yall TP'd before his quant's target. Back to PA.. there's certainly levels to watch for reclaims and I'll talk more actual trading in time, but the thought I want to entertain for now is why crypto? If you're expecting Trump to back off the tariff talk and for markets to keep pumping, why choose crypto as your asset of choice? SPX, Gold, NVDA will all certainly rally to new all time highs, provide nice and clean price action, while BTC chops for weeks at a time, maybe gives a +6% day once every couple weeks, and full retraces any move that looks genuinely strong (that's the meta since August). I just truly don't see a reason why anyone would choose swing longing crypto over stocks or gold, UNLESS this was the event that will cause crypto to lead. If that's your belief, then power to you, although I don't personally see that at the moment. Additionally, it's a shame how much power single individuals and entities have over crypto price action. It's terrible. Back to Tom Lee above when he put the bottom in on ETH by blasting billions (with the support of a naive community) at 4K. We can now see where the real demand was, and it wasn't at his "quants" level. Also the HL insider who made $200m today off this move constantly shorting and holding down price for days. And yes, I understand these things happen in stocks as well, but stocks have simply been trading cleaner with goal oriented price action (taking liquidity -> making new ATH's, etc). Overall, I see more corruption in crypto, less clean price action, and the exchanges all fucking suck and crash anytime a good opportunity comes. I simply don't see the benefit in trading crypto over stocks right now. -On life I lost my grandfather (basically my dad) a bit over two weeks ago. There's a pain with me that losing money can't compare to. No matter how much you lost, remember that you have life. And remember you can make it back. If you did it once, you can do it again. If you have health, if you have family, you have everything you need. Those two things give you everything you need to be successful once again. Learn from this crash. Allow this very tough experience to shape you into a stronger and more brilliant version of yourself. Pressure makes diamonds as they say. Don't let the experience go to waste. Cherish your family and your life and get back on the fucking horse. We got work to do. Best wishes to all of you and let's all be better moving forward. -Chase

$Aster - I want a bottom to form a bit below here and some kind of deviation setup

Majors sideways and $IP on a tear. What is story protocol cooking

@shitcoinsafari good run bro and good luck

@PoloXBT @ellipticipher @Crypto_Chase nigga it's not easy he blasted the top and sat through generational drawdown while the entire world mocked him and cheered for downfall

@ellipticipher @Crypto_Chase valid but not hard to do with billions(money) already made

So the guy who moves $ETH is getting his analysis from a guy drawing elementary school trendlines. Try to act like I didn’t call this shit LMAO what an absolute joke.

@NimbusTradeX Very cool!!

@0xRacist @trading_axe running from money

@trading_axe Name's runner but missed all the runners

I dont think ETH will ever again trade above 2200-2500 regardless of how high BTC is

@outpxce motion in the belly

@0xBiZzy been like this forever

What are we doing? Bitcoin has literally given us the most ideal possible sideways action for a memecoin / altcoin season and we just nuke everything..? The market is so much different than it once was..

@astronomer_zero The psychological benefit of higher win rate has positive spill over effects 👍

Another benefit of 1RR Trades... ... is that they have the added beauty of being able to re-enter a trade, sometimes almost the same exact setup. In this example, the TP was hit, and as long as your TP edge is strong, it usually/more often than not means a pullback. The trend also often continues after that pullback, meaning , no full retraces + new highs. So you get another 1RR out of that, using the same target and a higher entry + a higher SL (no full retrace expected in a trend). Yes, you could get a higher RR and that is typically a good aim. But the whole point here is to aim for a 1 RR. And the one mechanic reducing your stress factor instantly is widening the SL, especially for the novice trader for whom this post is tailored. So if also this next TP hits, it would score 2 RR... ... but would it? Nope. We aimed for 50% risk on the first trade, say the account just started ($2000), then the first trade ended in $3000. If this second trade scores TP with the same risk, that's ($4500). That's 2.5 RR. Indeed, 1RR trades are better than many think. It not only makes a lot of money, it gets you in the rhythm of winning, not losing. Closing the thread here. Disclaimer: I did not take this specific trade this time. This was a plan and a plan only (just mentioning this for full transparency).

@astekz I eat shit a few times then 4 fig wins start feeling good again 😂

@SailorManCrypto ah the cock and balls pattern

Spent an hour staring at the $BTC chart and all I could see was this....

@DipWheeler code?

fartcoin ATH waiting room.

@chaneeepark crazy

Check out how this AI receptionist handles calls. When you reject a call, your AI receptionist answers for you. During the call, you can see the live transcript between the receptionist and the caller. After the call, Pernell surfaces any action items that needs your attention, if any. This app is super useful if you have tons of missed calls and want a smart receptionist that could not only handle those calls but also tell you what’s important. Try it out on App Store apps.apple.com/us/app/pernell…

@Crypto_Chase A lot of subtle nuances being taught in the videos for sure👍

I've gotten lots of questions about the $BTC and $ETH setups. I know no one likes a paid service, but you've all been eating well off my calls so I'll say this. The screenshot below is taken directly from my latest video. I developed the BTC long plan when price was still at 108.5K. If you just want to blind follow me, I post my trades on X for free, but if you want to understand how I plan the trades from prediction, to level choice, to SL/TP placement, I teach all that within my videos. Everything is presented in a clear and easy to understand fashion. If any of my whop subs are out there, perhaps you can chime in with a review below. I aim for 4 videos per month and at a $50 price point, it's likely cheaper than almost every group on CT. Reminder that there is no discord, but we're not here to borrow conviction from a group chat, we're here to trade. whop.com/cryptochase

@lBattleRhino read that as "longing in the sun" 😭 i need to touch grass

Lounging in the sun with the dogs can’t really ask for a better Sunday