Outright Alpha

Most people approach outright markets by trying to predict winners. That’s not what I do. — I identify hedging opportunities early and model how prices are likely to evolve under different scenarios. Different results create different market reactions. Understanding those price paths is where the opportunity usually lies. — 30 years specialist knowledge on a small number of markets. 12% ROI proven by available results over last 7 years. DM to learn more.

@henrywinter I don't think it's the way to end such an illustrious time at a club. Such matters should be kept in-house, that's what team players do. Imagine if players venting their spleen in public about their dressing room became commonplace? Salah should look at his own standards.

Mo Salah is being called selfish and also caring about Liverpool with his “heavy metal” comments. It’s possible to be both, caring about himself and the club. One of Liverpool’s greatest ever players was making a legitimate point, and he has a right to. Salah could have delivered his critique to the hierarchy in private but he’s leaving, rightly so as the revered 33-year-old is not the force of old. He’s more string quartet than heavy metal. By posting his critique to his 62m followers on Instagram, Salah wants everyone to know how he feels - and how he feels a club he’s served so well and loves so much can re-find its way. Of course, it’s embarrassing for Arne Slot, especially when so many of Salah’s team-mates "like" the post (whatever their reasons). It heaps more pressure on the head coach. But the football overseen by Slot isn’t good enough at the moment. It lacks direction, intensity and authority. Salah is right. Slot has to focus most on ensuring Liverpool finish in the Champions League positions, rise above the criticism and give Salah the send-off a club legend deserves at Anfield on Sunday. #LFC

@NizaarKinsella It’ll be interesting to compare how Chelsea’s squad is seen to fit Alonso’s 3-4-3 system in the wake of the Reuben Amorim failed “experiment” at Utd. The impression Alonso gives is of someone with more flexibility.

🚨Xabi Alonso on becoming Chelsea's manager: "Chelsea is one of the biggest clubs in world football and it fills me with immense pride to become manager of this great club. "From my conversations with the ownership group and sporting leadership, it is clear we share the same ambition. We want to build a team capable of competing consistently at the highest level and fighting for trophies. "There is great talent in the squad and huge potential at this football club and it will be my great honour to lead it. Now the focus is on hard work, building the right culture and winning trophies."

@henrywinter It’s worth noting that whilst Carrick’s actual points are 33 from 15 games, “expected points” are only 23. Testament to his game management and results focus but also consistent with slowly deteriorating performances. This will need monitoring at the start of next season.

When Michael Carrick was coming to the end of his playing career at Manchester United, and considering coaching, the club gave him a questionnaire to fill in which would reveal his true character. It concluded that "Michael is a helpful, patient, stable person who works steadily and consistently. Even-tempered, he communicates, coaches, and teaches in a patient, detailed, non-threatening way. "He prefers having, and following, a well thought-out process to ensure success. If Michael is responsible for establishing the process, he will do so in a thoughtful, methodical manner, paying close attention to details and time-honoured successes." Pretty accurate. What Carrick has done with this United team is simply the appliance of these characteristics and the appliance of common-sense. Abandoning the 3-4-2-1 system that didn’t suit the players and was an insult to United’s DNA (which matters hugely). Playing players in their best positions - Bruno Fernandes as a 10. Ensuring a midfield balance with Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo, who protect the defence. Restoring that home-grown link with Mainoo (which matters hugely). Restoring belief by telling players, individually and collectively, they are good. He's a good communicator - as the Carrington questionnaire confirmed. Organising the players better. Steve Holland’s training-ground drilling of the units into a cohesive force is already apparent. Holland’s very demanding, not always to everyone’s tastes, but he’s a very effective coach. Holland's a very smart appointment by Carrick. It helps having Lisandro Martinez back. It helps having all week to instil his ideas. It helps that Carrick doesn’t tie himself up in knots in press conferences. He's calm, he reads danger early and he just wants what's best for Manchester United. There's no agenda with Carrick. There will be plenty of calls for Carrick to be given the role after two good wins and performances. Winning the Manchester Derby and then beating the Premier League leaders away is a great start. Carrick loves the club, loves working with the players and has a strong bond with the support. The Carricks are Reds. He did once have to encourage a more polite phrasing of the famous Georgie Best song his young son was passionately singing. United should enjoy having their team back in the hands of somebody who cares and understands and who can lead them forward for the rest of the season. The club can then sit down with Carrick in June and decide on the permanent role. No need to rush. If Carrick guides United into one of the five #UCL positions, he makes the job even more inviting to elite managers - and makes an even more convincing case for himself. #MUFC

@SJohnsonSport One good result can change the narrative for a young squad heading into next season. Chelsea are shorter odds than both Man Utd and Palace, victorious over City in this final the last two seasons. A lot on the line. Poor recent head to head but It is possible.

“It is not a thing where we are like, ‘Oh this is impossible’. We know what we are capable of doing.” #CFC have not beaten #MCFC for 5 years…Romeo Lavia insists the squad have the belief they can end the streak in the #FACup Final (read for free): nytimes.com/athletic/72814…

@TheAthleticFC One good result can change the narrative for a young squad heading into next season. Chelsea are shorter odds than both Man Utd and Palace, victorious over City in this final the last two seasons. A lot on the line. It is possible.

Manchester City and Chelsea will collide for the first time ever in an FA Cup final on Saturday. Pep Guardiola is looking to make amends for defeats on this stage in 2024 and 2025, while Calum McFarlane is attempting to salvage something from a tumultuous season. So what would winning this competition mean for each club? @SamLee and @reallycerys assess where the cup final will be won and lost ⤵️ 🔗 nytimes.com/athletic/72783…

@NizaarKinsella One good result can change the narrative for a young squad heading into next season. Chelsea are shorter odds than both Man Utd and Palace, victorious over City in this final the last two seasons. A lot on the line. It is possible.

Joao Pedro: "In the difficult moments you want to see who wants to win, who wants to improve. We have had a tough moment in the Premier League. "I spoke with everyone here, especially with Reece. We need to change. We need to do something as players. We have conversations between us and everyone is very committed to improve and put Chelsea where it deserves." bbc.co.uk/sport/football…

It's the FA Cup Final tomorrow and a Chelsea win would be interesting because markets often overreact to such significant single outcomes. It can reshape pricing narratives for months, opening up trading opportunities, even when underlying strength hasn’t changed that much.

When everyone agrees on a narrative, the price usually reflects it already. The edge is spotting where that narrative is heading next.

@TheAthleticFC @lauriewhitwell I’m not sure what Wilcox, Berrada and Ratcliffe get paid to make these decisions but they just “follow the crowd” whether it’s the fanbase or the latest edition of The Overlap. The media have set a trap and INEOS have fallen for it…..again!

"They did look at different candidates, Andoni Iraola and Unai Emery among them... "But it has been decided by the people that work with Michael Carrick that he is the right man to take Manchester United into next season." @lauriewhitwell on his story that Michael Carrick is line to take the Manchester United job on a permanent basis. bit.ly/42As8j0

@markgoldbridge I’m not sure what Wilcox, Berrada and Ratcliffe get paid to make these decisions but they just “follow the crowd” whether it’s the fanbase or the latest edition of The Overlap. The media have set a trap and INEOS have fallen for it…..again!

Carrick was always getting the job. At least if it does go wrong it's well known it's Wilcox, Berrada and Ratcliffe who made that choice without interviewing anyone else. They are responsible whatever happens

Tennis outrights are one of the cleanest examples of price path dynamics. One upset can completely reshape the market.

@UnitedStandMUFC @markgoldbridge Michael Carrick will be the first appointment of a coach by a Big 6 club that doesn’t deploy high pressing tactics since…..Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

A MAJOR blow if you want Iraola! 🇪🇸 #mufc

@TheAthleticFC PGMOL and Webb have a lot to answer for for letting it get to this stage. The slo mo video doing the rounds shows 6-7 potential penalty/free kick awards prior to the foul on Raya. It’s down to pure weak management by the refereeing body.

Howard Webb says the correct decision was made to rule out a West Ham United equaliser in Arsenal’s crucial 1-0 victory on Sunday due to a “clear and obvious” foul on goalkeeper David Raya. Arsenal took a giant stride towards the Premier League title thanks to Leandro Trossard’s winner on Sunday but not before a late moment of controversy at the London Stadium. 📝 @PJBuckingham Free to read here ⬇️ 🔗 nyti.ms/4tx5S4z

Mbappe is a bad apple. He leaves PSG, they achieve their UCL holy grail. He arrives at Real, they stop winning. His relationship with many of his international team mates is strained. His goal output is built mainly on cannon fodder. A great team always prevails over a team of great players.

From @TheAthleticFC: Kylian Mbappe has scored 85 goals in 100 games since signing for Real Madrid in June 2024. He is almost guaranteed to finish as the Champions League top scorer this season. But for some fans at the Spanish club, it’s not enough. nyti.ms/4fhRtWk

The decline at the Bernabeu looks set to continue. The return of Real’s Galactico strategy is the root cause of the problem leading to the need for a coach whose edge is managing egos rather than the high pressing tactics that are the hallmark of nearly all successful teams in recent times.

This could be return of Mourinho as an elite coach IF he can curb his instincts and be less negative/explosive in press conferences. Can he build up his players? Can he actually be a unifying force? Apologising to Vinicius Junior would be a good start. Politics outweigh tactics.

I can’t see why Alonso, or Iraola for that matter, would be attracted to the Chelsea position. A dysfunctional ownership and Boardroom that wants to dictate, an immature playing group locked into long term contracts and a history of treating the coach as the one and only fall guy.

Chelsea's dressing room needs someone who can command instant respect from the moment they walk into the room. A figure who has won trophies as a player and a manager. Someone who knows the Premier League and, what's more, plays entertaining football and improves players. Xabi Alonso ticks all those boxes. He could galvanise this squad. He may be the right fit. ✍️ @SJohnsonSport 🔗 nytimes.com/athletic/72709…

@henrywinter That’s not the model that Lawrence and Winstanley work to though - it’s the “drop in” coach model they developed at Brighton. Power over the Boardroom only comes with sustained success as shown by Guardiola and Klopp and realised by Maresca.

If Chelsea are to appoint a head coach of the calibre of Xabi Alonso, Andoni Iraola or Marco Silva, they need a new culture, too. Allow managers to manage, shape the squad, and specifically recruit more experienced players with the right characters. #CFC

You don’t need a winner. You need a position that gives you options as the market evolves.