OVERROUND

The World Cup, graded: 66 alerts featured to subscribers in the World Cup category since July 2. Every one is on the public ledger: 46 resolved in the alerted direction, 20 against. The 12 Argentina misses sit on the page next to the wins. overround.pro/receipts?categ…

My startup’s alert feed just went 46-20 on World Cup prediction markets. Every alert is public and graded at overround.pro/receipts?categ… Question: How much of that record is skill vs luck?

Of the 915 featured alerts OVERROUND has sent subscribers, 652 have resolved. 431 resolved in the alerted direction and 221 resolved against it, a 66% won rate on resolved alerts. Every alert and its grade is public at overround.pro/receipts. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

The losses stay up. Twelve Argentina alerts between 59c and 70c, all graded LOST the night Argentina reached the final. Grading is mechanical. A market resolves, the row takes its grade, and the page keeps it.

The World Cup, graded: 66 alerts featured to subscribers in the World Cup category since July 2. Every one is on the public ledger: 46 resolved in the alerted direction, 20 against. The 12 Argentina misses sit on the page next to the wins. overround.pro/receipts?categ…

Spain 🇪🇸 win the World Cup, and the last leg of the book OVERROUND has been monitoring completes: Spain to win, held from a 20.6 cent average, settles at a dollar. The feed featured this wallet’s France fade at 46 cents on July 2, and every alert since is graded on the public page, the twelve Argentina misses included: overround.pro/receipts?categ… The whole tournament, graded in one table, goes out Monday morning as the first Weekly Skill Report. Free signup on the site.

World Cup final kickoff now! One wallet on our board goes into the final holding Spain to win from a 20.6 cent average, a position it has held while the market moved to 58. Three legs settle at the whistle; the scorer and award legs settle with the tournament. Its graded World Cup alerts, wins and the twelve Argentina misses alike: overround.pro/receipts?categ… The feed runs live through the final. Subscribers get qualifying moves from tracked wallets within minutes: #pricing" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">overround.pro/#pricing

Spain🇪🇸 hit its all-time low this year with a 10% chance to win the World Cup on July 2, mid-tournament. Sixteen days later, they play in the final, with a 59% of winning, according to Polymarket. Some people called it, most didn’t. overround.pro has the receipts!

The thread below follows one notable wallet. Here is our overall record, since OVERROUND launched 2 weeks ago: We've sent subscribers 878 featured alerts, and 639 have resolved. 419 resolved in the alerted direction and 220 resolved against it, a 66% correctness rate on resolved alerts. Every resolved alert and its grade is public at overround.pro/receipts. The World Cup rows from that ledger: overround.pro/receipts?categ… Positions described are observations of public on-chain activity, not recommendations. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

One hit is a story, not proof. This wallet has 1,577 independent resolved Sports events. OVERROUND watches noteworthy wallets for moves of unusually strong conviction relative to their history. Subscribers get the feed as they build, and every featured alert is graded publicly, losses included. overround.pro/wallets/0x7cbe…

The World Cup final was hiding in public at 18¢. Before England vs Argentina yesterday, one wallet in OVERROUND’s feed held: • ESP–ARG final 18¢: WON • England out 43.8¢: WON • Both teams score No 47.2¢: LOST It still holds Spain at 20.6¢. Sunday grades the rest.

The Esports World Cup runs on Paris time this year, so much of Polymarket’s esports action happens while the US sleeps. @OverroundPro tells subscribers within minutes when a historically accurate wallet makes a qualifying move, then grades every one of those calls in public.

Argentina advances, and the wallet that faded France earlier this week just landed its second big tournament call: Yes on a Spain vs Argentina final, bought at 18¢ when that matchup was an afterthought. Tonight it became the actual final! Its other leg tonight shows you how this wallet trades. It held No on both teams scoring, built near 47 cents. It sold out in play, the last block at 75 cents, and the market resolved against that side after it was gone. The Spain leg from 20.6¢ resolves Sunday. Every alert we sent along the way is graded at overround.pro/receipts. Observations, not recommendations.

Today decides the next receipt for the Polymarket wallet that successfully faded France already. Its live legs on this match, all public on-chain: Yes on the final being Spain vs Argentina, from 18 cents. Yes on England going out in the semifinals, from 44¢. No on both teams scoring, from 47¢. Our feed flagged each leg as it built. The whistle grades them in public. Observations of on-chain activity, not recommendations. overround.pro

Standard caveat that belongs under any number like this: win rate alone flatters anyone who favors cheap favorites, which is why every receipt is also graded against the price paid at detection. Nothing here is financial advice, and past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

Every near-real-time alert we have ever sent is now graded in public: 353 won, 164 lost, nothing deleted. That's a 68% success rate so far, and it's been climbing. It's all here, timestamped. Discounted founders' rates are available for a limited time, but feel free to check our work before paying us anything: overround.pro/receipts/?utm_…

@BratDotAI If you mean international events: yes, that’s most of the feed. Polymarket prices elections, geopolitics, and sports worldwide, and we grade all of it the same way, against the price paid. The most-watched wallet on our board this week built its record on World Cup markets.

@OverroundPro Can it work for international markets trends as well?

The Polymarket wallet that @OverroundPro watched spend five days fading France did not stop there. Its public book has been long Spain to win the whole tournament since 20 cents. It called the funeral and booked the after-party. Both positions were on the overround.pro feed while they built.

Right, in public. France is out, the No pays $25.1k. This same wallet is also long Spain to win it all, from 20c. Our feed watched that one build too.

There is an anonymous wallet on Polymarket that gets most of its sports calls wrong. It is also up $57,870. Across 1,702 resolved events @OverroundPro graded, it wins about 44% of the time. It just refuses to bet unless the price is wrong. The wins are big and the losses are small, and that difference is the whole game. It sits at #1 in Sports on our public board. Watching what it does costs nothing. overround.pro/leaderboard/sp…