JBowzDataGuy

I got tired of prediction-market leaderboards that reward whoever was loudest last week. So I built @OverroundPro: public forecasters ranked by calibration, with alerts when the genuinely sharp wallets move. It went live today. overround.pro

Just 5 cups of coffee a day? Those are rookie numbers!

My recently shipped product's flagship feature is a page that remembers when I'm wrong. Twelve times last week, on Argentina alone! Overall, 46-20 on World Cup related alerts. None of that record can be quietly deleted, including by me.

@Shpigford As much as I love Lost, watch Billions. Masterclass in changing up the core conflict enough each season to keep things interesting the whole way through.

rewatch parenthood, rewatch lost, or watch billions for the first time?

Everything this wallet had riding on the match itself just cashed. The Spain position from a 20.6 cent average. The Argentina fade from 50. And my favorite: a No it paid 78 cents for that was trading at 58 an hour ago, looking like a donation right up until it paid a dollar. One leg left, sitting at 99.7 cents waiting for the trophy ceremony.

@JBowzDataGuy What do you mean? I see nothing?

If you built an app, I highly recommend posting on hacker news

Ninety minutes, maybe 120, maybe penalties, and this book is graded in public. The part nobody else will show you: however it ends, the receipts page looks the same tomorrow. Wins and losses, same table. @OverroundPro grades, doesn’t advise.

Oh yeah, some guy named Messi opposes Spain tomorrow. Is he any good? overround.pro/?utm_source=x

Spain🇪🇸 hit its all-time low this year with a 10% chance to win the World Cup on July 2, mid-tournament. Sixteen days later, they play in the final, with a 59% of winning, according to Polymarket. Some people called it, most didn’t. overround.pro has the receipts!

@Lifeinvestmoney The Texas power grid

It's 2026 and remote work is still a thing What's stopping you from having 6 remote jobs paying $200k/yr each like me?

@levelsio That's pretty much what happened when TikTok was briefly banned in the US too.

US: *restricts US AI model because too dangerous* China: *builds better Chinese AI model* Everyone: *switches to Chinese AI model* This is why restricting models probably doesn't work, it's much more preferable (for US) to have everyone on US AI models so at least they can monitor what everyone is doing Now it's China that's monitoring what everyone is doing!

That wallet is still sitting on Spain to win the whole thing at a 20.6¢ average. Market says 59¢ tonight. Sunday, it's a dollar a share or it's zero. I built OVERROUND to alert on wallets like this early and grade every alert in public, wins and losses both. overround.pro/receipts.

Back on July 2 my alert system flagged a wallet loading up on No for France🇫🇷reaching the World Cup final. It kept adding until the position hit $35k. France went out in the semi. Graded won by @OverroundPro, it's on the receipts page. Same wallet also faded Argentina🇦🇷 reaching the final. Argentina is in the final. Graded the losses, on the same page. The receipts page does not care about anyone's feelings.

Uh…

@MicroLaunchHQ Prediction market wallets ranked by skill, with alerts sent when they make a notable move, and then a graded public record. overround.pro/?utm_source=x

If you have less than 100 customers, show me what you’ve built👇

@riwajrise Polymarket wallets ranked by skill, with near-real-time alerts when they do something notable, and then a graded public record. overround.pro

Founders, the floor is yours. Promote your startup URL + one line about what you’re building. Let’s help more builders get discovered and shine a spotlight on great products.

The catch with copying is the entry gap: by the time a move is visible, the price has often run, so the copier’s record is worse than the wallet’s. We measure that gap explicitly and gate alerts on whether a follower price still existed. I run overround.pro, so obvious bias. Past results, theirs or anyone’s, do not guarantee future returns.

People ask how I’m making money on sports I’ve never watched. Two things. I copy the top traders on Polymarket (their positions are all public), and I run those picks on a $100K funded account instead of my own bankroll. No handicapping. No tilt. No blown bankroll. Wrote both up in full — copy trading and funded accounts. Articles are pinned on my profile 📌

This guy has made $1.9 MILLION trading the World Cup on Polymarket in the past week 🤯 Today he’s got $89,000 on 🇫🇷France vs Spain🇪🇸 I’m copying the trade. Also running it as a 2U play on my $100K funded account. This is how I’ve made money the entire World Cup without watching a single game or knowing anything about soccer. I don’t handicap. I find the guys who are winning consistently and trading a lot of volume, and follow them. Every trade they make is public. That’s the whole edge. If you want to tail it risk free: 👉🏻 Deposit $20 with code SKIP50 on the Polymarket app → they give you $50 free → put that free $50 on the same trade. Free $50 → $98 if it cashes. $20 to $117

One tracked wallet on our feed bought Spain to win the World Cup at 20.6 cents back when it was an afterthought, and its whole tournament book is public on-chain. Sunday grades the thesis either way, and the record stays up win or lose at overround.pro. Observations of public wallet activity, not recommendations.

One of the most interesting things about Polymarket is how quickly market sentiment can change. Just look at the World Cup Winner and Golden Boot markets. After Spain secured their place in the final, their odds to lift the trophy jumped to around 58%, while Argentina sits at roughly 42%. What's even more impressive is the scale of participation this market has already processed over $4B in trading volume. The Golden Boot race is just as exciting. Lionel Messi currently leads with about 61% odds, followed by Kylian Mbappé at 38%, and that market alone has seen more than $64M in volume. What I find fascinating isn't simply who's leading it's watching thousands of traders continuously reassess the probabilities as the tournament unfolds. Every goal, injury, lineup announcement, or tactical adjustment can move the market within minutes. That's why I think Polymarket has become much more than a place to speculate. It's a real-time sentiment tracker where you can see what people are actually willing to back with their money, not just what they're posting online. With the World Cup final still to come, it'll be fascinating to see whether Spain holds its edge, whether Argentina can flip the odds, and if the Golden Boot race shifts one last time before the tournament comes to an end.

Most “smart money” screenshots arrive after the result. This is what I built @OverroundPro to do: identify a qualified wallet, capture the position while the outcome is uncertain, then grade it in public. This one went 18¢ → $1. Its next big leg resolves Sunday.

The live alert stream is the subscription, from $19 a month. The graded history is free to inspect before you decide, every win and every miss: overround.pro/receipts

The record so far: of the 759 featured alerts OVERROUND has sent subscribers, 521 have resolved. 353 resolved in the alerted direction and 168 did not (68% wins). Every alert and its grade is public at overround.pro/receipts. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

The Esports World Cup runs on Paris time this year, so much of Polymarket’s esports action happens while the US sleeps. @OverroundPro tells subscribers within minutes when a historically accurate wallet makes a qualifying move, then grades every one of those calls in public.